Logic is CapFriendly comparables? Logic in the NHL real GMs making comparables? What you wrote make sense. Still surprising to me to think Matthews should get paid the second highest amount in the NHL, though he probably will.

Comparables dont work. Contracts are signed in different years, by different teams for different players when the salary cap is at different levels.

Had mcdavid signed in 2018 instead of 2017 (a year early) he would have gotten more.

If Stone, Skinner, Rantanen etc. sign before Marner, it pushes his price up.

If it worked that way everyone would be making less than Wayne Gretzky did in 1982

I'm trying to work out a metaphor about not only in the ballpark but on the infield, but it's not coming to completion.

It's people who advance a completely-left-field idea (stating with the baseball image) and then say that everyone's entitled to their own (stupid) opinion that irritate me. I posted a similar construction (RFA's in Light of Nylander Deal, to which you didn't respond) where some idiot newbie gave me one star because he thinks Matthews is going to get 13M and Marner 10 and thus my post (11.333 and 8.333) is without merit. I like your numbers here. But I'm outraged that you have Marchment in place of Trevor Moore. I should give you one star.

I am giving you a standing ovation right now

And yet countless people on here used Pastrnak, Gudreau, Elhers etc as comparables to say Nylander is overpaid. It can't be cut both ways. Matthews will get paid close to or at McDavid's number but not more. Its too soon after he signed it and he is clearly a better player than Matthews. Matthews will very soon be the 2nd best player in the league but he'll never be the best. So using McDavid as the comparable, Matthews will get a little less than him.

I think Petterson may be the player who will eventually get a bigger deal than McDavid but that will be a full 4 years after he signed his deal so it'll make sense from an inflationary standpoint.

I feel like you're treating contract negotiations with star players the same way your home/auto insurance premiums are delivered to you.

It's not a computer program that takes your stats, compares it with everyone else in the area, and spits out your premium (or salary in this case).

You can do all the number crunching you want....and I'm sure both sides of the negotiation do. At the end of the day, if you present a number and term to the star player...and they say 'no'. What do you do? Run another simulation in excel and see if it comes up with different figures? Hold firm, never signing them to more that what your spreadsheet tells you and hope no one offer sheets two of the most desirable players in the league?

This is a negotiation between a franchise and it's two most important members. If you want them to sign to team-friendly terms, you don't accomplish that with a laptop and an iron-fist.

I think most of your numbers are pretty good - would be great for TML if MM would sign for that... if Kapanen is worth 3.5M then they should just trade him now as they wont be able to afford him and would be better off with a $4M D man ... just remember that Matthews is an RFA ... which deflates his price a little ... he should come in under JT in the 10-10.5 range ... I mean we ALL know who the best player in the world is right now & AM can not take over a game the way McDavid can.

It doesn't work that way. He will be paid what he wants to be paid really.

This isn't so much me saying that this is the only way to do things. I understand there is so much more that goes into contract negotiations than pushing a piece of paper with a dollar amount on it across a table. I just find it funny how certain people on here are 100% certain that Nylander is over paid because they use comparables from years ago but will then at the same time say that Matthews and Marner will set new bars because comparables don't matter.

Anyone who wants to project the career of Nylander based on 15 games coming off no training camp is trolling

I honestly don't know what is going to happen but I just find it funny how people on here say they use comparables to determine Nylander is completely overpaid but then are adamant that Matthews and Marner are going to set the bar for salaries moving forward. Some people want to see the Leafs burn more than they want their own teams to succeed.

Or just plain stupid. He's been playing much better and has been snake bitten, the advance stats for the Leafs with him on the ice have been better than without him. It'll turn around and he'll go for a run of 10 games where he scores a pile of points and everyone will shut up.

More or less yes. There will be a negotiation and a contract will get signed. And when it does, it won't be a problem for the Leafs. Why? Because when you have the star power they have, you are doing pretty good no matter what they are getting paid. Teams that overpay depth are ones that have real problems. I think the middle class of the NHL will start feeling the pinch in the coming years.

The JVR's in the league won't be getting 7 million anymore, they'll be getting 4.5 million and guys like Beagle and the rest of the bottom 6 players Vancouver signed won't get over 1.5 million soon. It'll be stars getting star money and everyone scratching out what they can get but it won't be near as much as it used to be.

Yes. Absolutely agree



The only think I wonder about this...with the cap jumping up each year...those teams sitting near the cap floor will need to give their money somewhere. I'm thinking back to 2011-12 when Columbus signed James Wisniewski to a $5.5m contract which, if memory serves me correct...they kind of outbid what people figured he'd be worth because they needed to get to the floor. I may be wrong on that.

More entertaining game than whining about people undervaluing or overvaluing Nylander...

GUESS THE COMPARABLE'S!

-Matthews: Tavares (Easy enough...I mean, he could easily get McDavid money, but yeah, I see where your head is at)
-Marner: Tarasenko? Maybe...signed before the 15/16 season, so there'd be a bump, but sure.
-Kapanen: ? Can't guess this one. Thought Reinhart, which would make sense but he only signed for 2 years.
-Johnsson: ? Pageau is the closest $ amount that I can think of, but not sure who this one is either.

I think I'm 2/4, but could be wrong...can anyone guess the last 2?

There will always be GM's that need to make a splash and overpay guys but its going to become less and less. Especially if star players get the sort of contracts people on here are talking about. There will just be no case in giving mid range guys upper middle class money. (JVR getting 7 million a year is a mid range player getting upper class money) If the Leafs hand out a huge chunk of change to their stars, how can they give Kapanen 5 million? Or sign guys like Bozak and other middle 6 players that kind of money? Look at Tampa as an example, they are going to have to move out players like Johnson and Palat and essentially get nothing because they just really need to move salary to afford guys like Point, Sergachev and Vasilevsky.

For Matthews I used McDavid and Eichel as comparables. All 3 were drafted close to the same time, all 3 are franchise centres and Matthews is better than Eichel but not as good as McDavid.
Marner I used Pastrnak as a comparable but could also use Draisaitl as well.
Kapanen I used Boone Jenner
And I can't honestly remember who I used for Johnsson.

My main point was that I find it funny how the same people who used comparables to say Nylander is massively overpaid, throw that whole arguement in the trash and say Matthews will get 14 million at least.

I'd say the best comparison I can think of is the NHL Salary Cap and the Real Estate Market.

Just because someone paid $1m for a house two years ago doesn't mean someone today can buy a similar house in a similar neighbourhood for the same $1m. There's a chance you'd have to pay $1.3m to find a home on a smaller lot that still needs some renovations. The $1m home is still considered the more desirable property...but you're buying something today, in a completely different market.

Oh for sure, I was just trying to match up the contracts. @LoganOllivier: It would have taken me days to guess Boone Jenner hahaha