Honestly, Karlsson is kinda egocentric. he'll go to the team that willing to pay him the most in real dollars.

Most likely a Low tax team.

Vegas is good guess. Maybe Florida? since they are clearing up cap space

If he is willing to brave the cold, Buffalo isn't out of the question. We have a great future ahead of us and one of the best young cores in the league. If he came to Buffalo it would probably be 7 years at 10 mil

I would have said Vegas, but with Mark Stone's extension it wont happen unless they can clear 10 mil in cap space. They have 72 mil tied in cap space before you include Stone's new contract. I can see Detroit tossing 10+mil at him to have a quick turnaround in their rebuild.

I'd say:

Vegas - Somehow the team that tried to be bad has plenty of cap space and a competative team. I think they beat out Arizona in basically every way possible.
Rangers - At least if Panarin or someone like that signs
Vancouver - I think he'd like it there, team on the rise, Swedes
Colorado - Might not have the money, but in an otherwise great spot
Florida - Talks have been about Panarin/Bob, but Karlsson would be immense there as well
Chicago - I think their rep still holds up, they could be in for a push with multiple FA's as well
Dallas - Might look for that 2C first, but they could potentially fit both.

Outsiders that need to shed cap could be Minnie, Boston, even Toronto/Tampa tbh

I mean I think this is a stretch. If Ottawa ever offered him Doughty money and/or didn't have an owner undermining any sort of culture he'd probably have signed already. Don't see any of those claims against Drew, and it's not even comparable owner/team situations as of this off-season

Edit: Regarding the egocentric part

Vegas doesn’t have the cap space with stone extension. They have like $5M and have to re-sign William Karlsson.

They were dipping their toes in trading Miller, Stone and Karlsson might agree to take slightly less signing together, Clarkson is on IR and they have some other pieces they could look to move if it's possible signing both

Part of the scenario is where does Karlsson want to live. East or West. I'll say San Jose, followed by Florida. Maybe he join he'll Ottawa buddies in Columbus.

Stone got 9.5M. According to current roster and moving Clarkson to LTIR they have 5,875,000 in cap space to re-sign William Kalrsson, a back up goalie and the 3 extras or bring up kids. Even trading Miller’s 3,875,000 doesn’t open enough space for EK.

Yeah they might actually have signed to many players in the 2-3m range at this point. Didn't realize McNabb, Reaves, Holden etc all had more term. It's possible but it'll take you like 5 trades so it makes little sense

Darkhorse for sure, him and Dahlin would be electric

Florida has been clearing space, they'll make an offer at the very least, Vancouver is another. I'm interested to see how much hes going to ask for, I could see the number being set around 12+. Open market will drive the price up too, if he gets there