Willy Trouba Ghost

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Created by: TanSor

Team: 2019-20 Minnesota Wild

Initial Creation Date: Apr. 16, 2019

Published: Apr. 16, 2019

Salary Cap Mode: Basic

Description

Trying to speak a Spurgeon to Toronto trade into existence. A deal like this just makes so much sense for both sides. Spurgeon would instantly become the best defensemen (in terms of defensive ability) on Toronto's blue line and he'd be the perfect partner for Morgan Rielly. Shaw had a good year coming back from an injury and would provide a cheap ELC player that could fill in on the 3rd line next year. I'd like to keep him since he does have middle 6 upside, but if he could land us Nylander then I'm all for trading him.

Winnipeg is in a conundrum with Trouba as it seems he wants big money and the Jets may not be able to give it to him. The Wild help out and take him along with a cap dump for an above average 2nd pairing LD that would help solidify Winnipeg's top 4.

Philly has a ton of LD and while Ghost has played the right side very well in the past I still wouldn't be surprised if he's gone this offseason. Philly has the money to go after a big fish like Karlsson or they could opt for a more defensively sound player in Tyler Myers if they decide to add in free agency. Otherwise, they have some decent D prospects.

I'm not a big fan of giving Fiala this type of money but Fenton thinks he can be a 30+ goal scorer and might want get ahead of the curve and pull an Arvidsson-like deal out of his hat.

Free Agent Signings

RFA	YEARS	CAP HIT
Donato, Ryan	2	$2,750,000
Fiala, Kevin	6	$4,750,000
Sturm, Nico	3	$1,250,000
Belpedio, Louis	2	$975,000
Trouba, Jacob	6	$8,000,000

UFA		YEARS	CAP HIT
Hunt, Brad		1	$800,000
Read, Matt		1	$700,000

Trades

MIN

Nylander, William
2019 4th round pick (STL)

TOR

Shaw, Mason
Spurgeon, Jared ($2,593,750 retained)

Additional Details:

Spurgeon signs an extension.

MIN

Gostisbehere, Shayne

PHI

Åberg, Pontus [RFA Rights]
Zucker, Jason

Additional Details:

Had a discussion with @Dmh1055 about a deal revolving around Zucker and Ghost. We both agreed that the Wild would have to add a bit more so we give Philly an offensive minded wing that played both sides well for us and potted 12 goals last year. He'd be a nice 3rd line piece for the Flyers and will be pretty cheap to re-sign.

MIN

2019 5th round pick (ANA)

ANA

Pateryn, Greg

Additional Details:

Anywhere that needs a solid depth RD that can play 2nd pairing minutes in a pinch.

MIN

Kulikov, Dmitry
Trouba, Jacob [RFA Rights]

WPG

Brodin, Jonas
Eriksson Ek, Joel [RFA Rights]

Additional Details:

Edited based off of feedback.

Buyouts

Tyler Ennis: $1,216,667
Dmitry Kulikov: $1,444,444

Retained Salary Transactions

Jared Spurgeon: $2,593,750 (50%)

Draft	Round 1	Round 2	Round 3	Round 4	Round 5	Round 6	Round 7
2019
2020
2021

ROSTER

LONG-TERM OUTLOOK

EMBED

TEXT-EMBED

ROSTER SIZE	SALARY CAP	CAP HIT	OVERAGES	BONUSES	CAP SPACE
22	$83,000,000	$75,224,984	$0	$1,100,000	$7,775,016

Left Wing	Centre	Right Wing
Greenway, Jordan $916,666$916,666 ($500,000$500K) LW, RW UFA - 1	Staal, Eric $1,625,000$1,625,000 C M-NTC UFA - 2	Donato, Ryan $2,750,000$2,750,000 LW, C, RW UFA - 2
Fiala, Kevin $4,750,000$4,750,000 RW, LW UFA - 2	Nylander, William $6,962,366$6,962,366 RW UFA - 5	Kunin, Luke $925,000$925,000 ($600,000$600K) RW, C RFA - 1
Parise, Zach $7,538,462$7,538,462 LW NMC UFA - 6	Koivu, Mikko $5,500,000$5,500,000 C NMC UFA - 1	Read, Matt $700,000$700,000 RW, LW UFA
Foligno, Marcus $2,875,000$2,875,000 RW, LW UFA - 2	Sturm, Nico $1,250,000$1,250,000 C UFA - 1	Rask, Victor $2,000,000$2,000,000 C UFA - 3

Left Defense	Right Defense	Goaltender
Suter, Ryan $7,538,462$7,538,462 LD NMC UFA - 6	Dumba, Matt $6,000,000$6,000,000 RD UFA - 4	Dubnyk, Devan $2,166,667$2,166,667 G M-NTC UFA - 2
Gostisbehere, Shayne $4,500,000$4,500,000 LD/RD UFA - 4	Trouba, Jacob $8,000,000$8,000,000 RD UFA - 7
Seeler, Nick $725,000$725,000 LD/RD UFA - 2	Belpedio, Louis $975,000$975,000 RD UFA - 1	Stalock, Alex $785,000$785,000 G UFA - 3

Scratches	Injured Reserve (IR)	Long Term IR (LTIR)
Hunt, Brad $800,000$800,000 LD/RD UFA - 2
Brown, J.T. $687,500$687,500 RW UFA - 1

Apr. 16, 2019 at 9:02 p.m.

Lights

Joined: Apr. 2018

Posts: 5,794

Likes: 1,399

Don't hate that Flyers deal. Similar age, both had down years. Would just rather have like a third rounder instead of Aberg.

TanSor, Phil2893 and Dmh1055 liked this.

Apr. 16, 2019 at 9:03 p.m.

TanSor

Thread Starter

Joined: Jun. 2017

Posts: 8,697

Likes: 7,071

Quoting: ExpiredmilkYT

Don't hate that Flyers deal. Similar age, both had down years. Would just rather have like a third rounder instead of Aberg.

That was the thought process! I probably would too but I doubt Fenton wants to trade any of our picks unless we're moving up...

Lights liked this.

Apr. 16, 2019 at 9:17 p.m.

arafay

Joined: Mar. 2018

Posts: 7,327

Likes: 2,386

Jets want a conditional 1st as well if Trouba signs long-term.
Also would want a decent young cost effective player, Maybe erikson ek, Kunin, Sturm, etc

TanSor liked this.

Apr. 16, 2019 at 9:23 p.m.

TanSor

Thread Starter

Joined: Jun. 2017

Posts: 8,697

Likes: 7,071

Quoting: arafay

Jets want a conditional 1st as well if Trouba signs long-term.
Also would want a decent young cost effective player, Maybe erikson ek, Kunin, Sturm, etc

We could throw in Eriksson Ek, but not a 1st. Brodin had by far his best year in a Wild sweater last year, he saved our asses so many times in our own zone. Trouba is good but not Brodin + Eriksson Ek + a 1st good along with taking a cap dump... Cap space for Winnipeg is an asset in this trade.

Apr. 16, 2019 at 9:26 p.m.

Ryminister_27

Banned

Joined: Mar. 2018

Posts: 6,784

Likes: 1,915

Leafs pass. No need to take Spurgeon for Nylander when that would guarantee we lose 1 of Liljegren, Sandin, or possibly Dermott in the expansion draft. Next year isn't the year for Toronto to go for a d-man with the cap problems coming up. Once Marleau and Muzzin and the other big contracts are off the books is the time to go all in. 2020/2021 is the year. Until then, they'll keep the skilled forwards and rely on development of prospects in the system.

Apr. 16, 2019 at 9:31 p.m.

aedoran

Joined: Dec. 2017

Posts: 21,729

Likes: 12,063

Kulikov $4.4M for 1yr doesn’t make Brodin worth Trouba, IMO.

TanSor liked this.

Apr. 16, 2019 at 9:43 p.m.

TanSor

Thread Starter

Joined: Jun. 2017

Posts: 8,697

Likes: 7,071

Quoting: aedoran

Kulikov $4.4M for 1yr doesn’t make Brodin worth Trouba, IMO.

In another comment I said we could add Eriksson Ek. Would that do it for Winnipeg?

aedoran liked this.

Apr. 16, 2019 at 9:48 p.m.

TanSor

Thread Starter

Joined: Jun. 2017

Posts: 8,697

Likes: 7,071

Quoting: Ryminister_27

I mean you're going to lose one of those guys anyways assuming you don't leave a talented forward exposed, so I don't really see your logic... You're getting Spurgeon (graded out to be a an average #1 defenseman by The Athletic, not a top pairing a #1) next year at $2.6M and then you'd have him extended as part of the trade when both Muzzin and Marleau are off the books meaning you could easily afford him for the 20/21 season. I've watched every one of your playoff games along with about 10-15 regular season games and I've seen Freddy left out to dry so many times. Spurgeon would do wonders for your D core, he was far and away our best player last year.

Apr. 16, 2019 at 10:24 p.m.

arafay

Joined: Mar. 2018

Posts: 7,327

Likes: 2,386

Quoting: TanSor

The first would be conditional on Trouba signing long-term. Could have a 1st with the same conditions going the other way too?

Apr. 16, 2019 at 10:25 p.m.

#10

TanSor

Thread Starter

Joined: Jun. 2017

Posts: 8,697

Likes: 7,071

Quoting: arafay

The first would be conditional on Trouba signing long-term. Could have a 1st with the same conditions going the other way too?

If Trouba isn't signing long term then I wouldn't want him, I'd rather just keep Spurgeon on our blue line who would be less of a headache.

Apr. 16, 2019 at 10:31 p.m.

#11

arafay

Joined: Mar. 2018

Posts: 7,327

Likes: 2,386

Quoting: TanSor

If Trouba isn't signing long term then I wouldn't want him, I'd rather just keep Spurgeon on our blue line who would be less of a headache.

Exactly. So you think you will get Trouba long-term for a Brodin rental (2nd round pick value - at most) and a middle six forward in Ek (even that is a generous evaluation and he might not even crack our lineup). Yeah definitely not. I also though brodin was a 30 pt d-man. Now that I looked him up, don't want him. Unless that 2019 1st is coming our way with ek, Kunin, or Sturm, no thanks. The jets will find a better offer elsewhere. Would you accept Brodin and Ek for Spurgeon long-term. No right?. Trouba is just as good and younger.

Apr. 16, 2019 at 10:34 p.m.

#12

TanSor

Thread Starter

Joined: Jun. 2017

Posts: 8,697

Likes: 7,071

Quoting: arafay

You're severely under valuing Brodin. He had a fantastic year for us, hes way more valuable than a 2nd. He's not going to give you 50p seasons but he'll consistently save his teams ass at least once per night. That's fine with me then.

Apr. 16, 2019 at 11:18 p.m.

#13

arafay

Joined: Mar. 2018

Posts: 7,327

Likes: 2,386

Quoting: TanSor

Chiarot will consistently save our ass too but we are not trading him for spurgeon or any players because we know his value

Apr. 16, 2019 at 11:27 p.m.

#14

TanSor

Thread Starter

Joined: Jun. 2017

Posts: 8,697

Likes: 7,071

Quoting: arafay

Chiarot will consistently save our ass too but we are not trading him for spurgeon or any players because we know his value

Good luck getting an above average 2nd pairing defenseman, a promising forward with 2nd line upside, and a high first round pick for Trouba. I'm not saying Brodin's value is sky high, but from all the Jets games I've seen Trouba doesn't look that much better than Brodin. Analytics back me up.

Here's the Wild's unblocked shots allowed heatmap with Brodin on the ice
brodijo93

And here it is without Brodin
brodijo93

Brodin had a -9% threat impact when he was on the ice which is very good.

Now here's Winnipeg with Trouba
troubja94

And here you are without him
troubja94

The locations of the shots changed with Trouba indicating he had a small impact, but you had no difference in unblocked shot rates while he was on the ice, which indicates he didn't have much of an impact. Unblocked shots doesn't necessarily mean shot-blocking, it can also mean use of a stick to thwart a goal. Now again, I'm not saying Brodin is some fantastic defenseman, he shouldn't see top pairing minutes, but he's an above average 2nd pairing guy and analytically speaking has much more of a defensive impact on the ice than Trouba.

Apr. 16, 2019 at 11:37 p.m.

#15

palhal

LongtimeLeafsufferer

Joined: Jul. 2015

Posts: 59,804

Likes: 22,832

Edited Apr. 16, 2019 at 11:43 p.m.

The Jets trade makes sense. So many Jets fans think they Trouba is worth way too for a being a one year rental for the Jets or his new team. And Kulivov in the trade, and the Jets are pretty well cap compliant makes sense. IMO, Trouba isn't signing that extension though, he'll still seek being a UFA and go to the teams he wants. But think it's still a good deal for both teams.
The Leafs trade...Forget the extension for Spurgeon...it's really unpractical for both Leafs and Spurgeon. Leafs gain valuable cap space, and a good one year player at a needed position. Wild get the potential of Nylander and glad you put him at centre. Don't know much of about the other trades but for the Jets and Leaf trades, five stars.

TanSor liked this.

Apr. 16, 2019 at 11:44 p.m.

#16

TanSor

Thread Starter

Joined: Jun. 2017

Posts: 8,697

Likes: 7,071

Quoting: palhal

The Jets trade makes sense. So many Jets fans think they Trouba is worth way too for a being a one year rental for the Jets or his new team. And Kulivov in the trade, and the Jets are pretty well cap compliant makes sense. IMO, Trouba isn't signing that extension though, he'll still seek being a UFA and go to the teams he wants. But think it's still a good deal for both teams.
The Leafs trade...Forget the extension for Spurgeon...it's really unpractical for both Leafs and Spurgeon. Leave gain valuable cap space, and a good one year player at a needed position. Wild get the potential of Nylander and glad you put him at centre. Don't know much of about the other trades but for the Jets and Leaf trades, five stars.

Thank you!

No kidding you'd think Trouba is the next Erik Karlsson or Victor Hedman... You're probably right, I think he'll go to arbitration, get a 1 year deal, see free agency, and go home to Detroit.

Wild could do that with Spurgeon. This trade makes so much sense to me. Leafs have played awesome against Boston so far, but there have been a few times (mainly with Gardiner - Dermott on the ice) where your D has left Freddy to the dogs. A RD such as Spurgeon would go so far towards helping your D.

Apr. 17, 2019 at 1:29 a.m.

#17

arafay

Joined: Mar. 2018

Posts: 7,327

Likes: 2,386

Quoting: TanSor

And here it is without Brodin
brodijo93

Brodin had a -9% threat impact when he was on the ice which is very good.

Now here's Winnipeg with Trouba
troubja94

And here you are without him
troubja94

From your heat map it shows that Trouba makes a significant difference in preventing shots from the slot while Brodin does not make that much of a difference in high danger chances. It shows that trouba, though less of an overall difference, is makes a bigger difference in terms of impact. Brodin however just makes an already good team slightly better in denying high danger scoring chances. Also, brodin (though however good he may be) has waaaay less production than Trouba. I am not saying that Brodin is not good, but he is not good enough to hold up the package you are offering.

I respect your offer of Brodin and Ek but I would need a conditional 1st as well if he resigns long-term

Apr. 17, 2019 at 6:44 a.m.

#18

palhal

LongtimeLeafsufferer

Joined: Jul. 2015

Posts: 59,804

Likes: 22,832

Now I understand why maybe the Jets would want Trouba for a Cup run and one year (and one year only), but if the Jets plan on trading Trouba and get a good player in return with term, the proposed trade might be about the best offer the Jets get.

TanSor liked this.

Apr. 17, 2019 at 8:54 a.m.

#19

Leafsfan23

Joined: Oct. 2018

Posts: 74

Likes: 12

Quoting: Ryminister_27

Liljegren and Sandin don't need to be protected. Leafs could protect Rielly, Spurgeon and Muzzin if he resigns

TanSor liked this.

Apr. 17, 2019 at 6:59 p.m.

#20

arafay

Joined: Mar. 2018

Posts: 7,327

Likes: 2,386

Quoting: palhal

The problem I have is that he is singing long term in this and the jets should be getting a conditional 1st for that

Apr. 17, 2019 at 7:03 p.m.

#21

Pmwalker

Joined: Apr. 2019

Posts: 944

Likes: 302

I’d rather have Spurgeon if we’re dealing with Minny. Something around 11oa as the base.

Provorov/Spurgeon
Sanheim/Myers
Morin/Ghost

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