Cap Crunch Workarounds

Forums/Armchair-GM

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Created by: CN10

Team: 2019-20 Toronto Maple Leafs

Initial Creation Date: May 13, 2019

Published: May 15, 2019

Salary Cap Mode: Basic

Description

Toronto is in a cap crunch after signing Tavares when all their young stars were up for RFA contract renewals. Dubas has overpaid Nylander and Mathews, and now is in tough with the Marner negotiations.
He will need to get creative to keep their core of talented forwards together while rounding out the defensive side of the roster, especially focusing on the PK which was one of the key factors in their first round playoff exit. The Leafs will likely have to go with a 21 or 22 man roster this year (good news is that the AHL team is so close).

RFA's
Marner is locked up long term as he is a local and fan favorite.
Johnsson is bridged as he has only had one good season in the NHL and was a very late round pick, so Toronto is hesitant to pay up after a career year. He is a candidate to be moved out for picks for defensive help / cap relief.
Kapanen is extended for medium term & value as he only really broke out playing with Mathews in Nylander's absence. His draft pedigree gets him a slightly longer & better deal than Johnsson. He is also a candidate to be moved out for defensive help / cap relief.
Carcone is qualified, and Subban is brought back for the AHL team on minimum two-way contract. All other RFA's are allowed to leave.

UFA's
Ennis & Gardiner will get more than Toronto can afford elsewhere.
Hainsey may be back with the TML's, but my expectation is that someone out there offers him two years and he takes it.
Everyone else can walk.
After unloading Zaitsev and a haul of picks to NJ, Toronto signs the versatile Fantenberg (plays both sides) for the bottom pair. Executives hope that Dermott is ready to move up to the #4 slot; or at least that he, Fantenberg, and Benning can play there in spurts and the coaching staff can rotate them into more minutes at that spot based on who is playing best.

Trades
I've explained my reasoning in each individual move, but overall the pieces available from Toronto are as follows:
Brown - mid pick or RHD B level prospect or bottom pairing D
Johnsson/Kapanen - Mid 20's cost controllable defender
Nylander - Top D, preferably right handed. Though I do think Dubas keeps his promise to Nylander and does not trade him.
Kadri - D that can carry a second pairing at minimum, or for a cheaper 3rd center and a pick.
2020 1st/2nd Rounder - sweetener paired with a cap dump (Marleau/Zaitsev) or as an add to to get a defender.

Free Agent Signings

RFA	YEARS	CAP HIT
Carcone, Michael	1	$708,750
Subban, Jordan	1	$700,000
Johnsson, Andreas	2	$2,750,000
Kapanen, Kasperi	3	$3,000,000
Marner, Mitchell	8	$10,000,000

UFA		YEARS	CAP HIT
Fantenberg, Oscar		2	$1,000,000

Trades

TOR

Benning, Matthew

Additional Details:

Edmonton gets a winger likely to play in their top 6 due to their putrid forward depth for their bottom pairing defender.

EDM

Brown, Connor

Additional Details:

Toronto is searching for a RHS defenceman. Should be a good fit on the bottom pair and was a plus player the last two years on bad Edmonton teams.

TOR

Jankowski, Mark
2020 1st round pick (CGY)
2020 5th round pick (CGY)

Additional Details:

Leafs save almost $3M in the year they need it most, and get a great PK'er who is still improving and will be a lower cost #3C going forward. Flames pick is not lottery protected, adding to its value.

CGY

Kadri, Nazem

Additional Details:

Flames get a #2/3 center with grit that allows them to better roll their lines. Kadri is good at zone entries and therefore may be the guy to get Neal going again as he can carry it in and hit Neal as the trailer.

TOR

2019 6th round pick (NJD)

Additional Details:

Would prefer to move Marleau but I don't think he waives his NMC. Toronto off loads a contract they can't afford. It is a high cost but the entire league knows their cap situation and won't help them cheaply.

NJD

Zaitsev, Nikita
2020 1st round pick (TOR)

Additional Details:

Devils pick up an overpaid #5 D (who can play as a #4 on a thin blue line) and a pick for their rebuilding effort by weaponizing their cap space. Perhaps Zatisev bounces back to a campaign similar to his first year away from the TO microscope.

TOR

Miller, Colin

Additional Details:

Toronto gets a RD that's a perfect fit. Affordable over their window to win and a good two way defender. Lose a RW they can afford to given the talent ahead of him.

VGK

Bracco, Jeremy
2020 2nd round pick (TOR)

Additional Details:

Vegas gets a low cost offensive forward and a pick they can use to round out their roster over the term of Pac + Stastny + Stone and their purchased top lines contracts.

Buyouts

Mikhail Grabovski: $0

Retained Salary Transactions

Phil Kessel: $1,200,000 (15%)

Draft	Round 1	Round 2	Round 3	Round 4	Round 5	Round 6	Round 7
2019
2020
2021

ROSTER

LONG-TERM OUTLOOK

EMBED

TEXT-EMBED

ROSTER SIZE	SALARY CAP	CAP HIT	OVERAGES	BONUSES	CAP SPACE
22	$83,000,000	$77,227,199	$0	$132,500	$5,772,801

Roster

Left Wing	Centre	Right Wing
Hyman, Zach $2,250,000$2,250,000 RW, LW M-NTC UFA - 2	Tavares, John $11,000,000$11,000,000 C, LW NMC UFA - 6	Marner, Mitchell $10,000,000$10,000,000 RW UFA - 6
Johnsson, Andreas $2,750,000$2,750,000 LW, RW UFA - 4	Matthews, Auston $11,634,000$11,634,000 C UFA - 5	Nylander, William $6,962,366$6,962,366 RW UFA - 5
Marleau, Patrick $700,000$700,000 LW, C UFA - 1	Jankowski, Mark $1,675,000$1,675,000 C, LW UFA - 1	Kapanen, Kasperi $3,000,000$3,000,000 RW UFA - 3
Marchment, Mason $767,500$767,500 ($132,500$132K) LW, RW UFA - 1	Gauthier, Frédérik $675,000$675,000 C UFA - 1	Moore, Trevor $775,000$775,000 LW, RW UFA - 2

Left Defense	Right Defense	Goaltender
Rielly, Morgan $5,000,000$5,000,000 LD UFA - 3	Miller, Colin $3,875,000$3,875,000 RD UFA - 3	Andersen, Frederik $5,000,000$5,000,000 G M-NTC UFA - 2
Muzzin, Jake $4,000,000$4,000,000 LD UFA - 1	Dermott, Travis $863,333$863,333 LD/RD UFA - 1	Sparks, Garret $750,000$750,000 G UFA - 1
Fantenberg, Oscar $1,000,000$1,000,000 LD UFA - 1	Benning, Matthew $1,900,000$1,900,000 RD UFA - 1

Scratches	Injured Reserve (IR)	Long Term IR (LTIR)
Petan, Nicolas $775,000$775,000 C, LW, RW UFA - 2		Horton, Nathan $5,300,000$5,300,000 RW M-NTC, NMC UFA - 1
Holl, Justin $675,000$675,000 RD UFA - 1

Special Teams

Power Play 1
Matthews, A.		Tavares, J.		Marner, M.
	Miller, C.		Rielly, M.

Power Play 2
Johnsson, A.		Nylander, W.		Kapanen, K.
	Matthews, A.		Dermott, T.

Penalty Kill 1
	Hyman, Z.	Jankowski, M.
	Muzzin, J.	Benning, M.

Penalty Kill 2
	Tavares, J.	Marner, M.
	Rielly, M.	Miller, C.

May 15, 2019 at 7:45 p.m.

palhal

LongtimeLeafsufferer

Joined: Jul. 2015

Posts: 59,771

Likes: 22,803

So you admit Zaitsev is 4/5 Dman but to acquire Miller, who is a 4/5 Dman. it's cost the Leafs Zaitsev, Bracco, a first, three seconds and a third.....Madness.

OldNYIfan, PleaseBanMeForMyOwnGood and GenXHockey liked this.

May 15, 2019 at 8:04 p.m.

OldNYIfan

Once a Kings Fan Too

Joined: Jun. 2018

Posts: 40,499

Likes: 25,389

"haul of picks"?!?!?! Why not give them the arena and all the parking revenue, too?

May 15, 2019 at 8:08 p.m.

PleaseBanMeForMyOwnGood

Banned

Joined: May 2018

Posts: 24,997

Likes: 7,855

Quoting: palhal

So you admit Zaitsev is 4/5 Dman but to acquire Miller, who is a 4/5 Dman. it's cost the Leafs Zaitsev, Bracco, a first, three seconds and a third.....Madness.

My friend, we have found some common ground.

OldNYIfan liked this.

May 15, 2019 at 8:16 p.m.

OldNYIfan

Once a Kings Fan Too

Joined: Jun. 2018

Posts: 40,499

Likes: 25,389

Quoting: palhal

So you admit Zaitsev is 4/5 Dman but to acquire Miller, who is a 4/5 Dman. it's cost the Leafs Zaitsev, Bracco, a first, three seconds and a third.....Madness.

I just have this hunch that if Toronto trades Zaitsev this summer (a move that I don't like any more than you), I'll be seeing him here next season.

Manson plus 31-year-old UFA Korbinian Holzer plus AHLers. Doughty, Martinez (sought after by Montreal), rookies.

May 15, 2019 at 8:24 p.m.

Goulet

Joined: Feb. 2017

Posts: 1,930

Likes: 418

This Zaitsev narrative has to stop. Doesn't anyone wonder why they keep bringing in more Russians year after year? It's not so they can sign them and then jettison them with picks a couple of years later.
Half the league would have him on their PP. If anything, he is a buy low candidate for an astute GM.

A lot of work went into your thread so I won't comment on anything else.

May 15, 2019 at 8:33 p.m.

GenXHockey

Formerly Jamiepo

Joined: Jul. 2018

Posts: 21,157

Likes: 10,700

Quoting: palhal

So you admit Zaitsev is 4/5 Dman but to acquire Miller, who is a 4/5 Dman. it's cost the Leafs Zaitsev, Bracco, a first, three seconds and a third.....Madness.

Beat me to it... the difference between zaitsev and miller is probably a 2nd round pick. In this deal we give up a first, 3x2nds and a 3rd and our best forward prospect. All so we can have benning? Leave out benning and it is no longer necessary to trade zaitsev or make a move for miller.

Every time I have made an agm and moved zaitsev and started looking around for a defensive rhd that won’t be too pricey in a trade I just end up spending the same amount of cap space for a slightly marginal upgrade.

Unless we’re going to role out 3 rookies in the right side, it would be best to keep zaitsev.

palhal liked this.

May 15, 2019 at 8:44 p.m.

Bcarlo25

Joined: May 2018

Posts: 21,231

Likes: 7,011

Kadri doesn’t get you anywhere near what Calgary is giving up

May 15, 2019 at 9:12 p.m.

Zanerax

Joined: May 2018

Posts: 71

Likes: 36

I don't think you get a first in that Kadri deal. But I don't think it takes a first and 2 seconds to unload Zaitsev. I feel like a 2nd+ gets that done with someone, but I haven't watched him that much.

May 15, 2019 at 11:14 p.m.

CN10

Thread Starter

Joined: May 2019

Posts: 408

Likes: 176

Quoting: palhal

So you admit Zaitsev is 4/5 Dman but to acquire Miller, who is a 4/5 Dman. it's cost the Leafs Zaitsev, Bracco, a first, three seconds and a third.....Madness.

Leafs need to save money and the whole league knows it. I also see Miller as closer to a #3/4. I admit I over estimated the price teams may be able to extract from a Leafs team desperate to get below the cap without giving up Kapanen, Nylander, Johnsson, or Marner. I also likely over valued Miller as I think he'd be great on Toronto.

New price to move Zaitsev is a first. New price for Miller is a second and Bracco. Does that seem more reasonable to everyone while still being realistic?

May 15, 2019 at 11:29 p.m.

#10

palhal

LongtimeLeafsufferer

Joined: Jul. 2015

Posts: 59,771

Likes: 22,803

Quoting: CN10

Miller over Zaitsev is just a saving of 700,000. It's absurd to pay a premium for Zaitsev departure just to replace with a comparable player. And really how to really help the Leafs by doing an exchange of players in an already weak postion. There are high cap forwards who can bring value back in a trade seem to a lo more sense than trade from already weakened position..

May 15, 2019 at 11:30 p.m.

#11

CN10

Thread Starter

Joined: May 2019

Posts: 408

Likes: 176

Quoting: Bcarlo25

Kadri doesn’t get you anywhere near what Calgary is giving up

I think this is fair value for both Calgary and Toronto. The Flames get better across the Johnny and Gio window using the guy Kadri upgrades and what they hope will be a late first pick. Kadri's last three seasons have been: 61P, 55P, 44P with two 30 goal seasons in that span all on a 3 year @ $4.5M remaining. Duchene prior to leaving the Avs was: 55P, 59P, 41P with one 30 goal season on a 2 year @ $6M remaining. Duchene landed a first, a third, and their 27th OA selected forward from the previous year (along with a backup goalie).

May 15, 2019 at 11:38 p.m.

#12

CN10

Thread Starter

Joined: May 2019

Posts: 408

Likes: 176

Quoting: palhal

I would prefer to dump Marleau obviously, but he has a NMC. If you could send him out to somewhere like Vancouver for the 2020 first or 2019 second, keep Zaitsev, and still grab Miller with the 2020 second and Bracco that would be preferred to shore up the D.
Reilly - Miller
Muzzin - Zaitsev
Dermott - Benning
Fantenberg

My version of the Leafs assumed the Marleau uses the NMC and decides to keep the forwards stacked and the defence still a little thin.

May 15, 2019 at 11:42 p.m.

#13

palhal

LongtimeLeafsufferer

Joined: Jul. 2015

Posts: 59,771

Likes: 22,803

Quoting: CN10

My figures (for what it's worth) shows the Leafs over the cap by about 6.8m once they sign all their RFAs. You're right the defence will be weak because there no cap to spend. My suggestion is trade Nylander for futures. Just one player traded instead of multitude of players to find 6.8m

May 15, 2019 at 11:56 p.m.

#14

CN10

Thread Starter

Joined: May 2019

Posts: 408

Likes: 176

Quoting: palhal

Yes, I was about one Marleau equipment allergy away from making it work without all the stick handling. I wouldn't mind moving Nylander, but Dubas did "promise" he wouldn't be moved when he signed him half way through the season.

I think the team I've set up can outscore a lot of the defensive issues, but did get a little bit more defensive in nature. The next season opens almost 18M for a two second pairing D (11M), re-signing the #3C (3.5M), two fourth liners a backup (3.5M). By then one of the Swedes should be ready for at least the bottom pairing.

May 16, 2019 at 12:34 a.m.

#15

Bcarlo25

Joined: May 2018

Posts: 21,231

Likes: 7,011

Quoting: CN10

Look at kadris last season. A legit argument could be made that jankowski has higher value

May 16, 2019 at 12:42 a.m.

#16

Laudan

Joined: Jul. 2018

Posts: 3,490

Likes: 1,559

Quoting: Bcarlo25

Look at kadris last season. A legit argument could be made that jankowski has higher value

Nothing wrong with Kadris last Season. He stands just where he was all the years

18 + 22 = 40
18 + 26 = 44
20 + 30 = 50
18 + 21 = 39
17 + 28 = 45
32 + 29 = 62 - guess who came and play on his wing
32 + 23 = 55 - same as above
16 + 28 = 44 - guess who didnt play on his wing

As for the phantom winger....

19 + 42 = 61
22 + 47 = 69
26 + 68 = 94 - guess who was center in his line

As for the unnamed center, he just reached his career highs.....

May 16, 2019 at 1:11 a.m.

#17

Bcarlo25

Joined: May 2018

Posts: 21,231

Likes: 7,011

Quoting: Laudan

Hey, I get it. I think he’s a real good player. Honestly I use the phrase poor mans patrice Bergeron about the guy...that said, opposing gms are gonna say, “He scored 14 last year, not 34.” It’s a sad truth that points drive contract and trade value. I don’t agree with it, but it’s the way she goes.

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