If the Leafs didn't want Ceci's contract they would have let him go to arbitration and than walk away from the award and Ceci would be an UFA.

Signed to a contract he wants?

Not with that term. He wants the Matthews contract, $11,5M at 5 years.

I think Toronto should fold as a club, because I have cursed the club , because I care about the health of Toronto maple leaf fans. The shock of winning could kill them. The Ballard curse is still in effect for 100 yrs.???

No to anything above 10.5 at any term

If Dubas just stays patient, what people like @Jamiepo, and to a larger extent, @swinny have said would be largely true. Marner has no leverage and by sitting out any amount of time will hurt this season's production and make getting a decent deal even tougher.

Nevermind the 8 million I thought they would settle on, something in the 7+ range more than possible imo.

Too late for that now. He is officially signed. We can't go back, only forward. That may have been the better move but that ship sailed.

I wish, but that is never happening. He wants 10.5 and more for more years. I agree, they shouldn't pay him, I was just demonstrating what they may have to do to fit him in at 11.5m.

He can also want a billion dollars, doesnt mean hes getting it though.

Reality check, Aho has set the market price imo

And why should Dubas give in? Remember the Nylander saga? Leafs were fine without him. They will be fine without Marner (should he decide to sit out the beginning of the season) and will hurt his bargaining power even more.

There's no reason to give him the 10+ million type numbers he may want.

I will say one thing, dubas won’t grind him right down. He likes marner and wants him to feel comfortable with the team long term. They will play with the term of the contract and details so that it fits both sides.

Aho has not set the market, you need Point or one of the other big guys to sign before the market is set. I wish we could get him for less than 9.5, but because they overpaid Matthews, I think they'll overpay Marner too.

I disagree, the Matthews contract was negotiated when he was red hot and at unreal goal scoring pace.
He got injured after negotiations but at the point everything was mostly done.

If Matthews had not got injured, the goal total would be high.
Goals = get paid

This is why Marner wont get the Matthews contract.


Also what happened in the playoffs?
Marner went pretty quiet when Matthews was still scoring.

Afraid he has. In comparing Marner and Aho, in both stats and analytics, we have two players that are strickingly similar. Two key differnences, Aho plays centre, and looking at HockeyViz, Marner's production over the last year has outpaced Aho (but no one seems to think that Tavares has anything to do with that).

If we carefully look at the key pending RFA's - namely Ratennan, Tkachuk, Point and Marner; you also need to factor in linemates. Mikko plays with McKinnon (that sucks!) Point with Kucherov (the dud that now has hardware), and Marner with Tavares. Only Tkachuk for my money truly is a player whose numbers to date stand alone - primarily play with Backlund.

So many factors man.

I am not saying that Aho is not a comparable player. Just that one contract doesn't set a market. It might set the floor of the market, but you have to wait until another big player signs to really know the market. Right now you have two comparables, Matthews and Aho. We all agree Matthews isn't a true comparable, but it is the one the Marner camp is using. So you need multiple deals to be signed to say, "hey Mitch, these guys are your comparables". What happens if Point signs for 10.5? That is also a comparable and sets a new market.

All I am saying is that I think Aho's deal is reasonable, but I don't think that we will see Tkachuk or Point sign for 8.5m. I think 9.5 is the real market, Aho wanted his deal done (said so himself) and took less to get it done.