Quoting: Jamiepo
... most leaf fans here are pretty understanding when it comes to thought experiments like this. You can read the replies if you want.
I think it’s an over pay for Mitch that may run you into a bit of trouble. You lose Tatar petry and 2 1sts (which heck... Toronto May just make that trade with you) and you get a winger that hit 94 points once with Tavares as his centre. Yup Mitch is good but he isn’t 11.6m good. I also don’t think he signs that offersheet. Which is why he hasn’t been sent one.
Personally I like the way the Habs have been moving. It’s a bit of a slow process but that’s how it goes. Aho at center for 8.5m would have been ideal. But Mitch on the wing for 3.1m more aav. Meh I don’t know. Think there are a lot of good players available from teams trying to fit their rfa’s.
Well like I said this is more about changing the perception of the compensation for an offer sheet. I chose Mtl but it could be pretty much any other team that would make a little sense for them to do it.
I mean, I get it. Marner is not worth that much but I feel like Leafs fans are only looking at this from their perspective. From a Habs perspective, they are simply not a free agent destination. So yeah its easy to say, "Its easier just to pay Duchene and Gardiner" but the truth is the hardest part would be just getting them to pick Montreal over another destination with less tax, warmer weather and a team closer to winning a cup.
Also, I think people overreact at the idea overpaying players. Montreal, as a starting point, has to overpay players anyway so if your going to do it, do it for the superstars. Its simply the geography of where they are. No player takes a pay cut because Montreal has a rich history and 24 cups..... Once again. just the reality. Overpaying Marner by 3.1M isn't ideal, but neither is overpaying Alzner, Gionta, Cammalleri.
As for the Leafs making that trade, sure I guess but the point was to get around the idea of it just being four 1st round picks. BY including other players in separate trades to replenish some of those lost picks, whom are both candidates to not be resigned after these contracts end anyway, we'd only be shooting ourselves in the foot a bit in the short term (Swapping Tatar and Petry for Marner now) and a bit in the long term (sending over a 2022 1st and a 2023 2nd later) - Actually if you look at how I intricately made the trades, the value in the "long term" would only be a 1st, 2nd and two 4ths. Which is way more digestible in terms of straight value gained and lost over the period of time. That's why I selected precisely Tatar and Petry. Not because they are not good or anything but because they would be two of the most obvious candidates for not being resigned, not being worthy of being resigned after their contracts end and at the current moment having enough value in trade to diminish the assets lost in the Marner OS.
But yeah if we could straight up make it simple and say, Petry, Tatar, 1st 2022 and 2nd 2023 for Marner signed at 11.6*7 years. I think I gladly make that trade right now. Yes chances are the net effect of gaining Marner but losing Tatar AND Petry probably if anything only evens out right now but in the long run, in year 3 and 4 of that offer sheet contract, I think Montreal is laughing all the way to the bank. Knowing that plenty of solid reinforcements are on the way in guys like Poehling, Suzuki, Romanov, Brook, Caulfield, Primeau, 2020 1st and 2021 1st to gradually replace the older players on the team as we go along and knowing to not need to go nuts in free agency and overpay players there, I think this could be a worthy idea.
Of course this also very much depends on whether or not Marner signs, etc. Obviously for this thought experiment to work I have to take a couple liberties because I simply don't know certain things but its not entirely off base to say it could very much work. Marner and the Leafs are looking at a stalemate and Marner would be getting the Matthews money hes after and wouldn't have to worry about sitting out until he either gives in or the Leafs cave. All this movement could be arranged before the start of camp.
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