Idk if Ceci would be as good. Possibly.

Barrie and Holl are definitely better than Benning though, lmfao.

Doesn't really matter what Leafs want, Johnsson is a middle 6 winger signed to a reasonable contract - he's exactly what the Oilers should be targeting - pretty much any trade the Leafs make would have to be a hockey trade. IMO what I have proposed helps both teams while also not hurting or opening up a hole on both teams

No I'd rather not use good assets to make marginal improvements if any improvement at all.

According to 3/4's of people on here, any RHD is the best RHD on TO.

Calm down Copenhagen, Best RHD that's a pretty long stretch there bud. Sure the Leafs need more options at RHD but the struggles are more of team effort or lack of effort defensively than a straight up positional need . Just to be clear Benning does not single handedly solve any of the issues on the defensive side of the puck and to be completely honest that player doesn't exist at all.

I wrote this last summer, so the numbers are for 2016-17, 17-18 and 18-19.

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Is 1250 minutes over 3 years a large enough sample size to prove anything? I’m genuinely asking, because on another forum I’m the only guy that sees any value in Matt Benning at all, and looking at the numbers I think he can play 2RD. Certainly between him, Sekera and Russell we should be able to cover 2RD next season, but the numbers for Benning are intriguing.

To start with I used a proxy for “top-4” each year going back to 2016-17, based on TOI v Elites taken from puckiq.com, as follows:

2016-17: Sekera (35.5%), Klefbom (34.6)
2017-18: Nurse (34.9), Klefbom (32.3)
2018-19: Klefbom (35.1), Nurse (33.8)

Next I went to naturalstattrick.com and, using their “Teammates” tool, filtered all the stats for each year for the TOI Benning spent with each player listed above. I realize there were times when Russell-Benning were the 2nd pairing, but there may have been games that they were 3rd pairing too and I didn’t want to confuse the numbers with 3rd pairing data. Then too, who you play with is as important as who you play against, so showing those games where Russell-Benning played 2nd pairing probably doesn’t give us much information about potential combos this coming season, unless the injury bug strikes down 2-3 of the top-5 guys. For reference though, Russell-Benning were together just 21:04 in 2018-19 and outscored the competition 2-1. Negligible.

So I built an excel spreadsheet combining all the figures for Benning’s ice-time with the top two LHD for each season and the results were interesting to say the least. For the 3 years combined, 5v5 minutes in the top-4 only:

TOI: 1250:19
CF%: 52.79
FF%: 53.00
SF%: 53.17
GF%: 55.65

xGF%: 53.71
SCF%: 52.75
SCGF%: 56.99
HDCF%: 52.69
HDGF%: 56.72

Sh%: 9.51
Sv%: 91.75
PDO: 1.013

Again, this is just the time he spent in the top-4, these numbers don’t include any bottom-pairing play at all. This looks like a decent top-4 blueliner from here. Is it the McDavid push? Let’s look at the numbers with and without McDavid, filtered by the aforementioned top two LHD:

With McDavid

TOI: 420:30
CF%: 55.19
FF%: 56.65
SF%: 56.14
GF%: 62.96

xGF%: 56.10
SCF%: 55.27
HDCF%: 55.10
HDGF%: 59.38

Sh%: 14.05
Sv%: 90.73
PDO: 1.048

Without McDavid:

TOI: 829:47
CF%: 51.39
FF%: 50.88
SF%: 51.49
GF%: 49.18

xGF%: 52.06
SCF%: 50.97
HDCF%: 50.80
HDGF%: 54.29

Sh%: 8.20
Sv%: 94.67
PDO: 1.029

The truth is that Benning, even when playing top-4 minutes, isn’t getting a ton of “McDavid time”, just 33.6% of his TOI was spent with the world’s best center. Of course his numbers in those minutes are better, but he performed quite well even without the CMD push.

And then there’s this: Benning personally posted amazing boxcars during these minutes. His .912 points/60 puts him tied for 58th best defenseman in the NHL over the past 3 years, while his .29 goals/60 puts him in a 5 way tie for 24th, with Jones, Ekblad, Markov and our own Darnell Nurse. (I can’t believe so many Oilers fans are calling for these two to be traded). These are phenomenal numbers.

The list of marquee players that couldn’t match Benning’s .912 p/60 over the past 3 years is long, including Slavin, Petry, Morrissey, Ekholm, Heiskanen, Gostisbehere, Miller, Pesce, Ekman-Larsson, Parayko, Ekblad, Brodin, Doughty, Lindholm, Fowler, Ristolainen, Klefbom, Hamonic and Vatanen.

Now, I’m not suggesting that Matt Benning is a top-pairing guy or even a sure-fire top 4. I do know for sure that he’s played a reasonable amount of top-4 minutes over the past 3 years and has won those minutes even playing behind a piss-poor forward group. NONE of the other top blueliners can touch Benning’s GF% without McDavid, and it isn’t close:

Benning: 49.18 (while in the top-4 only)
Nurse: 44.51
Russell: 43.87
Larsson: 43.68
Klefbom: 40.27
Sekera: 40.00 (includes bottom-pairing time)

For reference, Benning’s overall GF% without McDavid (just so we’re comparing apples-to-apples) is 51.45%.

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Benning's overall 5v5 numbers in 2019-20 reflect the same quality as previous years: 0.98 P/60 and a 66.67 GF% (14-7) while playing largely with Kris Russell and Brandon Manning and the Oilers' terrific bottom-6 forwards.

You take the same tack with Edmonton's wingers though. Pot, meet kettle!

The classic, "here is all the reasons why this players is amazing, can I now trade him for a player you have because we don't need him and your player is something we need desperately." routine.

The wingers are kinda bad in Edmonton, I know you stated earlier that the Oilers don't "need" Kapenen on the RW cause your good there but the reality is that Kapenen is an upgrade on all the RW options Edmonton has (I consider Dria a C).

What wingers? Your best winger is always which ever one of your 3 good centres is playing wing for one of the other two. After that its either Yamamoto or Neal who are your best wingers. One of those guys is terrible contract the other is promising. Not really a pot calling the kettle black considering, its a very well documented fact that Edmonton has a complete black hole of depth at wing. To suggest Benning is the best RHD in TO is a joke, suggesting that a top 6 forward from a deep team would be a huge upgrade for a team that has no winger depth is just logic. Perhaps you should just accept the reality that Edmonton doesn't have assets they can afford to move to upgrade the issues they have on wing. Trying to convince other fans that your #6 defenceman would be a huge upgrade and worth a top 6 forward is a fruitless endeavor.

This is neat, all the reasons I would target Benning - unfortunately he is still unproven and again solves no issues in TO other than creates an additional option at RHD and also is due a new contract at the end of the season , yup he is RFA but his Qualifying offer will be close to 2 million and the Leafs kinda already have Benning in Holl

I didn't suggest the trade.

#ignorant

Not kind of bad, they are really bad.

Its been since 2017 when you can find a game Edmonton has won when Draisailt and McDavid both were held pointless. Good winger depth doesn't allow that to happen.

Every time a winger is traded to Edmonton we hear "he'd immediately be Oilers best winger!"

So another poster is just doing it back to you.

I was being polite, his feelings seem hurt

When did I state that?!

Holl has been really good this season, and has played a lot against top competition. Benning is needless, especially at the cost of a better asset. If we are going to upgrade our RHD I think you either get an actual upgrade and spend the necessary assets to do so, or you keep what you have instead of overpaying for marginal upgrades. This trade does nothing but shuffle the deck chairs for TO and costs a top 6 forward to do that. Its not at all necessary.

Sure, other than the fact that becoming the Oilers best winger isn't really an accomplishment at this time. Especially if you guys want to say that RNH, McDavid and Draisaitl are all your top 2 centres. That would mean that Kassian is your best winger and being better than him, isn't exactly hard.

But you are defending it, where is the ignorance? Beyond the ignorance of your last statement?

Might of been Copenhagen

I never once defended the trade. Can't you read??

They what the hell are you even talking about? If you aren't defending the trade, what is the point of commenting? And how is it not defending the trade by posting a page and a half worth of supporting "Evidence" to suggest that Benning is something very worthwhile? What is the point of any of this?

Getting a 2nd for Johnsson (a player the Leafs have plenty of) is not a bad transaction with Benning attached, Benning is very similar to Holl, he is an upgrade on Ceci and the anylitics prove that. Stating Johnsson is a top 6 forward is no different than saying Benning is a top 4 Dman - I mean it's possible but less likely. It also frees up a little money and adds another asset the Leafs can use to actually upgrade the RHD - for example would it be safe to say that a Dumba/Manson/Murphy/Dillon could all be had with some combination of a couple 2nd rnd 2020 picks, Lilly/Bracco/Kapenen etc.

I think we've all gotten off topic here. Please ban me doesn't agree that Benning and a 2nd is fair value for Johnsson.

I think Johnsson can be used in a bigger trade for an actual upgrade. This is just a lateral move.