not trading it for henrique

See that slot on your diagram, marked "2nd Line, Center"? I thought everyone agreed with you that you need one.

Id rather just put Reinhart or Cozens at 2C than trade a top 10 pick to get a 30 year old Adam Henrique

And using total TOI to determine 5v5 usage makes you smart??

http://naturalstattrick.com/playerteams.php?fromseason=20192020&thruseason=20192020&stype=2&sit=5v5&score=all&stdoi=oi&rate=y&team=BUF&pos=D&loc=B&toi=0&gpfilt=none&fd=&td=&tgp=410&lines=single&draftteam=ALL

http://puckiq.com/woodmoney?season=20192020&tier=Elite&positions=d&team=buf&group_by=player_season_team

I'm not bashing him at all, I'm just telling the truth. I'm sorry if that hurts.

I haven't made a trade offer because I wanted to gauge Sabres fans attitude towards the player, and obviously you guys think he's a human cheat mode. I looked up the stats to confirm and formulate an offer, and I find that the actual hockey results differ vastly from the prevailing attitude. So there really isn't an offer here at all, Dahlin doesn't move the needle and I'd have to give up several players who actually do, which is counter productive for a team that is now in it's window of contending. I think Dahlin will be a very good player - possibly a top-10 defenseman - but he isn't close to that now and the Oilers aren't in early build mode.

To be honest, I was disappointed at what I found today; I though he was playing at least 2nd pairing comp and probably killing those minutes. Hopefully we see a massive step forward next year, because I'm a big fan of the player and want him to succeed.

As for the numbers, you'd expect a +2.48 CF% rel from just about any player who was given the treatment Dahlin has been - well over 60% OZ starts, easiest comp, OTF starts, etc. Frankly that possession number is pretty poor given the advantageous ice-time he's being gifted. For comparison, Drew Doughty achieved better numbers (+2.65 CF% rel and +10.14 GF% rel and +4.30 xGF% rel) in his second season despite playing the toughest minutes of any player on his team. Dahlin's possession numbers this year are similar to Sergachev's from his 19-year-old (rookie) season in Tampa - massive amount of sheltering and lots of offensive opportunities, mediocre possession numbers and 40 points. Their scoring rates at 5v5 were identical: 1.29 P/60 for Sergachev and 1.28 P/60 for Dahlin. Dahlin had better GF% rel, but worse xGF% rel. Keep in mind it more difficult to put up great "rels" on a very good team like Tampa Bay.

Sergachev is a very good young player so that's not a bad comp, but he isn't in the same echelon as the superstar forwards mentioned above.

okay so you're knocking him for getting PP ice time. The kid is quarterbacking a PP1 as a teenager d-man...

He didn't play 25 mins a night against top competition and win the norris as a 19 y.o. so hes a bust lol

Truth doesn’t hurt, neither does what your doing, which is misleading and making false equivalencies. Dahlin does just fine whether starting in his own end or in the Ozone. Serg is playing for Tampa, of course his numbers will be better. You say he’s excelling, but call what Dahlin is doing not good enough. If you actually watched (again, you prolly don’t and frankly have admitted as much) you’d know that his usage has gone up as the season wore on and he returned from a cheap shot elbow to the head. The guy is going to be a stud, that’s all there is to say. If you trade budding stars, you better be getting a star back. Otherwise you end up trading Hall for Larsson. That’s not a knock as your an oilers fan, that’s an example of why you don’t trade stars for average players. Sorry RNH isn’t getting Dahlin, and you’re right that’s right now he’s not worth McDavid or Drai. But he has that high of a ceiling. Will he hit it? I hope so. And there’s not much else you have to offer that would make me hand over that gamble so someone else can reap the rewards. That make sense?

thank you for taking the time to type out my exact thoughts that I cant while at work lol


perfect explanation and I will add to that, that while Dahlin isnt as good as Draisaitl and McDavid now he has shown more to lead one to think he WILL become that good than hes shown he wont.

you honestly couldnt have asked for him to do much more than he has already accomplished as a 18-19 y.o kid d-man stepping right into the NHL with all the pressure of a #1 overall pick....

some people are just idiots....

Wow, you're thick. I'm not knocking him for getting PP ice time or calling him a bust (is Sergachev a bust?), I'm simply stating the fact of his usage and the fact of his results. HIS results, not mine.

Nothing I've stated is misleading, neither have I made any false equivalencies. Please quote my exact words you think are either misleading or false.


I was using "rel" numbers, which is short for "relative to teammate". It's HARDER to put up good rels on a good team; on a team full of below average players, an average player should shine. Dahlin's positive rels are okay, but not great when considering he's on a much worse team than Tampa was in Sergachev's rookie year.


This is false.


He was actually more sheltered in the second half of the season. Open the links below and look at the date range and the CTOI%.

http://puckiq.com/woodmoney?tier=Elite&positions=d&team=buf&group_by=player_season_team&from_date=1569988800000&to_date=1577768400000
http://puckiq.com/woodmoney?tier=Elite&positions=d&team=buf&group_by=player_season_team&from_date=1577854800000&to_date=1586318400000


This is true.


This is also very true.


I'm beginning to question what his ceiling is. I've been watching Dahlin for at least 6 years now. Up until a year ago I would have said that his ceiling was the best defenseman since Lidstrom, and maybe, possibly Lidstrom's equal. Now I'm not so sure - he certainly isn't on that trajectory at the moment.


I agree. I don't see a trade between Edmonton and Buffalo involving Dahlin.

I'm beginning to question what his ceiling is. I've been watching Dahlin for at least 6 years now. Up until a year ago I would have said that his ceiling was the best defenseman since Lidstrom, and maybe, possibly Lidstrom's equal. Now I'm not so sure - he certainly isn't on that trajectory at the moment.



I guess breaking the best defenseman of all time's records isnt a good trajectory for 19 year old....get a grip

Actually fancy stats only tell half the story. I watch the games, and I know that playing with better players will result in a more positive outcome more often then not. The problem with rel Corsi is that it relies on its own formula for the “starting” corsi of other players to create it. If you know anything about statistics and variables, you know using one variable that is directly correlated with another is a good way to get skewed data. I’m not saying it’s useless, but it’s flawed to say the least and doesn’t tell the whole picture. Basically if all you’re using is adv stats that’s bad, if all you’re using is eye test, that’s not great either. Sheltered min don’t mean a thing. You go from offense to defense in 2 seconds in the nhl. He is the Sabres biggest threat in the Ozone in the back end... of course you’ll put him out there to take ozone draws if possible. Every team does that. Doesn’t mean he’s a liability in his own end. All if this is what I call misleading when you take a narrative that he is a third pairing right now. Ask anyone who actually watches and they will tell you he is the Sabres best offensive defenseman, and far from the worst defensive defenseman. Just because Ralph chooses to play McCabe (who actually is bad) in the dzone isn’t a reflection of Dahlin at all. He’s right where he needs to be to take that jump to the next level. Again, will he take it? I hope so. He’s still damn good if he only gets slightly better. Also, go look up Hedman's first couple years... hardly the world beater he is now. I think Dahlin will be better. But choose to think only in adv stats if you want.

Right?!?!
Why the hell would we wanna trade him?

Except Henrique is nowhere near worth a top10 pick
He’s not worth a low 1st even
HARD PASS

That pick should pretty much be untouchable for us anyways

Sure, done deal

Idk why he’s got UPL as available?
Can’t imagine we’d even consider moving him

@wojme

Quoting: wojme
Ya, who needs elite goalie prospects when you have an elite starting goalie and good backup... Oh wait. UPL isn't someone you just trade for a top 6 forward. That would be a ridiculous mistake by management.


okay I'm sure Jack would be totally on board if I became GM and came to him one on one " Hey captain I know your sick of losing for your enitire career here so far in Buffalo (just like everybody else is for the past like 10 years) but if you just wait maybe like 3 more years of sucking we got this young goalie kid who has never played an NHL game before but I know he is what will turn this franchise around so just keep waiting bud!"

Jack isn’t gonna win jack **** if we don’t get some better goaltending

You’re whole line of thinking would dictate us trading picks/prospects for established players
Which is fine in theory
But it’s a salary Cap league

We aren’t even a playoff contender yet
Let’s BUILD this team into Cup Contenders
THEN, we can start trading picks & prospects like the Pens do every year

If we do that NOW...
then we’re gonna be in Chicago Blackhawks territory where we can’t even afford to keep these guys more than a year or 2


100% guarantee Botts isn’t moving UPL

Ullmark was good this year and is still young, and got rid of Hutton for a top 10 backup in the league...

and ummm I'm fine with getting into "Chicago Blackhawks territory" they won 3 cups dude

We’d be in Blackhawks territory WITHOUT the Cups though
You sure did miss the point

And Ullmark is not a Stanley Cup winning goalie
He’s a low end starter who’d be great as a #2