Most Optimized Oilers

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Created by: BeterChiarelli

Team: 2020-21 Edmonton Oilers

Initial Creation Date: May 1, 2020

Published: May 1, 2020

Salary Cap Mode: Basic

Description

Effectively an identical AGM as to the one I posted last night, but with Granlund + Hoffman > Hall. The potential for this team to score 300 or more goals in a season is very real, and would make them the sixth team to accomplish the feat in the last 20 years. Arguably the most talented forward group this team has had since the mid-80s. Because Edmonton puts itself right up against the cap, there's no room to run a spare forward. With McDavid, Draisaitl, and Nugent-Hopkins capable of wheeling for long stretches of time, this shouldn't be an issue.

Really don't know how much more I can fudge salaries. Maybe Soderberg comes down a hair and Greiss stays at $3M even. The only drawback of this roster is that Bear cannot be signed long-term.

Flames use their CBO on Lucic: I've added the $750k in savings to Edmonton's cap hit to reflect that.

Corcoran, Finkelstein, and Zummack signed out of the OHL, NCAA, and WHL respectively. I'm under the impression that Corcoran and Finkelstein are not going to sign with their respective clubs. The two CHL grads will join Gruden and Rodrigue in the ECHL and Finkelstein will play for Bakersfield.

Draft:
#20. (RC) Seth Jarvis (Portland, WHL)
#46 (via CBJ). (LW) Lukas Reichel (Berlin, DEL)
#65 (via SJS). (RD) Michael Benning (Sherwood Park, AJHL)
#82. (RW) Brandon Coe (North Bay, OHL)
#98 (via ANA). (G) Jan Bednar (Sokolov, Czech2)

Larsson and the $2.8M in dead cap expiring next year is used to extend RNH with the Hayes contract, "bridge" Yamamoto for 3 years, and find a bottom-pairing RHD replacement. Kassian is sold to Seattle during expansion, and McLeod makes the roster as the #4C next season. I'd anticipate the raise in the salary cap to cover bonus overages for this season.

Free Agent Signings

RFA	YEARS	CAP HIT
Athanasiou, Andreas	4	$3,200,000
Bear, Ethan	2	$1,650,000
Kuffner, Ryan	2	$800,000
Lagesson, William	2	$800,000

UFA	YEARS	CAP HIT
Granlund, Mikael	4	$4,600,000
Greiss, Thomas	2	$2,900,000
Hoffman, Mike	4	$6,125,000
Söderberg, Carl	2	$3,375,000

CREATED	YEARS	CAP HIT
Corcoran, Connor	3	$925,000
Finkelstein, Benjamin	3	$925,000
Zummack, Eli	3	$925,000

Trades

EDM

CBO

ANA

Neal, James

EDM

Gáborík, Marián
Gruden, Jonathan
2020 2nd round pick (CBJ)
2021 5th round pick (EDM)

OTT

Puljujärvi, Jesse [Reserve List]
Russell, Kris
2022 3rd round pick (EDM)

Additional Details:

Edmonton agrees to pay Russell's July 1st signing bonus

EDM

2020 3rd round pick (SJS)
2021 5th round pick (DET)

DET

Benning, Matthew [RFA Rights]

EDM

Weal, Jordan
2020 4th round pick (ANA)

MTL

Chiasson, Alex

Buyouts

Andrej Sekera: $2,500,000
Benoit Pouliot: $1,333,333

Retained Salary Transactions

Milan Lucic: $750,000 (12.5%)

Buried

Jordan Weal: $325,000 ($1,400,000)
Jujhar Khaira: $125,000 ($1,200,000)

Draft	Round 1	Round 2	Round 3	Round 4	Round 5	Round 6	Round 7
2020
2021
2022

ROSTER

LONG-TERM OUTLOOK

EMBED

TEXT-EMBED

ROSTER SIZE	SALARY CAP	CAP HIT	OVERAGES	BONUSES	CAP SPACE
21	$82,250,000	$82,556,032	$341,534	$730,000	-$306,032

Roster

Left Wing	Centre	Right Wing
Granlund, Mikael $4,600,000$4,600,000 C, RW UFA - 1	McDavid, Connor $12,500,000$12,500,000 C UFA - 6	Hoffman, Mike $6,125,000$6,125,000 LW UFA - 1
	Draisaitl, Leon $8,500,000$8,500,000 C, LW UFA - 5	Yamamoto, Kailer $894,166$894,166 ($230,000$230K) RW RFA - 1
Nugent-Hopkins, Ryan $6,000,000$6,000,000 LW, C UFA - 1	Söderberg, Carl $3,375,000$3,375,000 C, LW UFA - 1	Kassian, Zack $3,200,000$3,200,000 RW UFA - 4
Athanasiou, Andreas $3,200,000$3,200,000 LW, RW UFA - 1	Haas, Gaëtan $915,000$915,000 C UFA - 1	Archibald, Josh $1,500,000$1,500,000 RW, LW UFA - 2
Nygård, Joakim $875,000$875,000 LW UFA - 1

Left Defense	Right Defense	Goaltender
Nurse, Darnell $5,600,000$5,600,000 LD UFA - 2	Bear, Ethan $1,650,000$1,650,000 RD UFA - 2	Koskinen, Mikko $4,500,000$4,500,000 G M-NTC UFA - 2
Klefbom, Oscar $4,167,000$4,167,000 LD UFA - 3	Larsson, Adam $4,166,666$4,166,666 RD UFA - 1
Jones, Caleb $850,000$850,000 LD/RD UFA - 2	Bouchard, Evan $863,333$863,333 ($500,000$500K) RD RFA - 3	Greiss, Thomas $2,900,000$2,900,000 G UFA - 2

Scratches	Injured Reserve (IR)	Long Term IR (LTIR)
Lagesson, William $800,000$800,000 LD/RD UFA - 2		Gáborík, Marián $4,875,000$4,875,000 RW UFA - 1

Special Teams

Power Play 1
Yamamoto, K.		Draisaitl, L.		Hoffman, M.
	Bear, E.		McDavid, C.

Power Play 2
Athanasiou, A.		Nugent-Hopkins, R.		Granlund, M.
	Bouchard, E.		Klefbom, O.

Penalty Kill 1
	Söderberg, C.	Archibald, J.
	Nurse, D.	Larsson, A.

Penalty Kill 2
	Nygård, J.	Haas, G.
	Klefbom, O.	Jones, C.

May 2, 2020 at 6:14 a.m.

#26

aedoran

Joined: Dec. 2017

Posts: 21,686

Likes: 12,030

Quoting: BeterChiarelli

Unless the plan is to rush Seider, Detroit is not set at RD and has three NHL-caliber defenders on their roster today. Nevermind that Benning is worth a touch more than what Demelo got. No idea how you could justify that low-ball value.

Even is Seider isn't ready a 3rd and a 5th for a 3rd pair defensemen is too much. With Hronek and Lindstrom thats all Benning would be. Although I wouldn't count Seider out yet.

May 2, 2020 at 7:29 a.m.

#27

CD282

Joined: Mar. 2017

Posts: 24,044

Likes: 7,749

Quoting: Leafs_and_Sens_Fan

DeMelo was playing top 4 minutes. Benning was playing sheltered minutes. When the Oilers tried to push him into the top 4 he struggled badly.

I dont mind taking Russell for a 3rd round pick but I wouldn't give a 2nd for Puljujarvi. Dorion isnt the best GM but hes proven hes good at drafting. I'd try to give him as many picks as possible.

This isn't true at all. Look the his stats using NST's line tool when paired with Nurse or Klefbom.

http://naturalstattrick.com/linestats.php?fromseason=20162017&thruseason=20182019&stype=2&sit=5v5&score=all&rate=n&team=EDM&vteam=ALL&view=wowy&loc=B&gpfilt=none&fd=2016-10-12&td=2019-04-06&tgp=2000&strict=incl&p1=8477498&p2=8476988&p3=0&p4=0&p5=0

http://naturalstattrick.com/linestats.php?fromseason=20162017&thruseason=20182019&stype=2&sit=5v5&score=all&rate=n&team=EDM&vteam=ALL&view=wowy&loc=B&gpfilt=none&fd=2016-10-12&td=2019-04-06&tgp=2000&strict=incl&p1=8476472&p2=8476988&p3=0&p4=0&p5=0

May 2, 2020 at 7:32 a.m.

#28

CD282

Joined: Mar. 2017

Posts: 24,044

Likes: 7,749

Quoting: Skyraider112

The Sheahan-Archibald duo was one of the main reasons the Oilers could effectively close out games. To me he is a better option than Haas, Haas can be a 13th forward. Ennis is the exact type of player you want with McDavid because he comes cheap, has enough speed and skill to keep up with Connor, and is a great forechecker. I get that we are all in quarantine and it's a bit frustrating, but it would be great if you were considerate in the way you respond to other users. No need to make cutting remarks

What does his contract have to do with his placement in the lineup? As long as the roster fits within the cap, how much any particular player makes should have no effect whatsoever on any coaching decision.

May 2, 2020 at 7:49 a.m.

#29

CD282

Joined: Mar. 2017

Posts: 24,044

Likes: 7,749

Quoting: aedoran

Even is Seider isn't ready a 3rd and a 5th for a 3rd pair defensemen is too much. With Hronek and Lindstrom thats all Benning would be. Although I wouldn't count Seider out yet.

No it isn't, especially when you consider how effective Benning is in his role. Among 168 players that have played at least 2000 minutes at 5v5 over the past 3 years, Benning ranks 28th in GF%. Among the same players he's 64th in p/60.

He's 25, shoots right and hits like a mack truck. He has more value than a 3rd and a 5th easily, he's in the 2nd round pick territory.

- in a re-draft Benning would likely go in the 35-45 range, putting his value as an early 2nd round pick
- TVR had worse stats when Carolina traded a 2nd for him.
- statistically a 2nd round pick has a 25% chance of hitting 200 NHL games, while a 3rd round pick has a 12% chance. Matthew Benning has played 260 games and counting.

A 3rd + a 5th is practically giving this player away.

ConnorMcHellebucyk and Goilersfan1215 liked this.

May 2, 2020 at 9:30 a.m.

#30

ConnorMcHellebucyk

Buljujarvi

Joined: Jul. 2018

Posts: 4,209

Likes: 2,552

Quoting: BeterChiarelli

@Copenhagen @ConnorMcHellebucyk @ConnorMcDavid97 @oilersfan55 @Oilersfan71 @CzechingOut @Mayb81 @Goilersfan1215 @Bluetomorrow83 @jassan28 @hockeyconnor97 @CD282

I don't know how else to further optimize this. This team beats the hell out of the league before asking "who's next?". Someone find Kenny Holland's email and send this to him on an hourly basis. We've earned it.

I’m down lol

Goilersfan1215 liked this.

May 2, 2020 at 9:44 a.m.

#31

aedoran

Joined: Dec. 2017

Posts: 21,686

Likes: 12,030

Quoting: CD282

I disagree. For now Hronek, Seider and Lindstrom are just fine. Maybe he is better than Lindstrom now but I doubt he will be after Lindstrom gets a full season under his belt. Detroit also has Antti Tuomisto who is probably going to be pretty good, There was an article on the Athletic about Tuomisto and you'd think his dad that wrote it. From pervious
discussions I know you have a subscription to the Athletic. It just doesn't make sense to give up a 3rd for an RD when Detroit has a couple that are better and several with higher ceilings. It's not like Detroit is going to be a playoff team next season. So why give up a 3rd for something they don't need this instant, Especially when there is a much bigger need for centers, a left defenseman or 2 and a goalie. That's why I don't think he is worth a 3rd a least not from Detroit pov.

May 2, 2020 at 3:38 p.m.

#32

Leafs_and_Sens_Fan

Joined: Jan. 2020

Posts: 8,370

Likes: 2,275

Quoting: CD282

Yeah but a second round pick could also turn into Bergeron.

If Benning is so good why do Oilers fans keep trying to trade him? It's not like its essential to push Bouchard into playing 10 minutes a night on the 3rd pairing.

@aedoran thoughts?

Quoting: CD282

How did Bear win out on the job then?

May 4, 2020 at 6:22 a.m.

#33

CD282

Joined: Mar. 2017

Posts: 24,044

Likes: 7,749

Quoting: Leafs_and_Sens_Fan

1. Your lotto ticket could win the jackpot.
2. Oilers have too many NHL defensemen. Fans have this irrational desire to keep the ones with the greatest potential and natural ability.
3. Because Bear is better?

May 4, 2020 at 6:42 a.m.

#34

CD282

Joined: Mar. 2017

Posts: 24,044

Likes: 7,749

Quoting: aedoran

I wasn't arguing that Detroit needs or wants him, I was arguing Benning's market value.

Maybe Detroit isn't a good fit for a trade, but it seems to me that you're putting an awful lot of stock in non-blue chip prospects who haven't proven anything yet.

Lindstrom was 45, 0-5-5 -12 in the AHL this year, going into next season with him penciled into the starting lineup is exactly the way to remain at the bottom of the league.

Tuomisto is a 19-year-old playing in a Finnish junior league, he's several years away realistically.

Detroit needs actual NHL players filling roster spots if they want to compete in this league. I'm not saying Benning is necessarily a great fit, but using distant bells as a reason why doesn't hold water.

May 4, 2020 at 12:32 p.m.

#35

Leafs_and_Sens_Fan

Joined: Jan. 2020

Posts: 8,370

Likes: 2,275

Quoting: CD282

If Benning is as good as you say he is then they should be trading Larsson who has 1 year left on his deal at a higher cap hit and could easily fetch a 3rd.

May 4, 2020 at 1:01 p.m.

#36

CD282

Joined: Mar. 2017

Posts: 24,044

Likes: 7,749

Quoting: Leafs_and_Sens_Fan

If Benning is as good as you say he is then they should be trading Larsson who has 1 year left on his deal at a higher cap hit and could easily fetch a 3rd.

Larsson is worth a LOT more than a 3rd.

May 4, 2020 at 1:07 p.m.

#37

Leafs_and_Sens_Fan

Joined: Jan. 2020

Posts: 8,370

Likes: 2,275

Quoting: CD282

Larsson is worth a LOT more than a 3rd.

Okay so why not trade him and trade Benning if Benning is a solid top 4 guy? Benning is cheaper and you can get more term on him.

May 4, 2020 at 1:16 p.m.

#38

CD282

Joined: Mar. 2017

Posts: 24,044

Likes: 7,749

Quoting: Leafs_and_Sens_Fan

Okay so why not trade him and trade Benning if Benning is a solid top 4 guy? Benning is cheaper and you can get more term on him.

Personally I wouldn't trade either of them.

May 4, 2020 at 1:27 p.m.

#39

Leafs_and_Sens_Fan

Joined: Jan. 2020

Posts: 8,370

Likes: 2,275

Quoting: CD282

Personally I wouldn't trade either of them.

Fair enough. But almost every Edmonton post I see you guys are trading Benning. I think that really lowers his value it makes it seem like you guys are desperate to get value out of him.

May 4, 2020 at 1:36 p.m.

#40

CD282

Joined: Mar. 2017

Posts: 24,044

Likes: 7,749

Quoting: Leafs_and_Sens_Fan

Fair enough. But almost every Edmonton post I see you guys are trading Benning. I think that really lowers his value it makes it seem like you guys are desperate to get value out of him.

No, I think it's simply Oilers fans reading the tea leaves: Edmonton has too many NHL defensemen in the roster.

Also there's a tendency among us fans to try and hurry up the future. We can see that Bouchard is going to be a huge part of this team for the next 10-15 years, so we make room for him on the roster this summer. I guarantee you that Holland will go into training camp with at least 3 proven RD in the roster ahead of Bouchard. For me that would be Bear, Larsson and Benning.

I suspect Holland will pick Bear, Larsson and Green and trade Benning.

May 4, 2020 at 1:49 p.m.

#41

Leafs_and_Sens_Fan

Joined: Jan. 2020

Posts: 8,370

Likes: 2,275

Quoting: CD282

Okay but wouldn't it be much better to trade Larsson than Benning if Benning is as good as you say he is. I mean Larsson isn't an elite defenceman (he's a decent top 4 guy) plus he'd net you a much better return. If you think Benning is a top 4 defenceman that it would be logical to keep him because he will be cheaper, more term and younger...

May 4, 2020 at 2:00 p.m.

#42

CD282

Joined: Mar. 2017

Posts: 24,044

Likes: 7,749

Quoting: Leafs_and_Sens_Fan

No, because Larsson, being a UFA in 2021, won't have to be protected in the Seattle expansion draft. They can leave him exposed and sign him after the draft but before July 1st.

Long-term, neither Larsson nor Benning is likely to beat out either Bouchard or Bear for top-4 duty, so the play is to maximize the value today, minimize the loss to Seattle and then that sets the table going forward.

May 4, 2020 at 2:23 p.m.

#43

Leafs_and_Sens_Fan

Joined: Jan. 2020

Posts: 8,370

Likes: 2,275

Quoting: CD282

If they take Benning that means they aren't taking any of your other guys. Larsson walks in a year...

May 4, 2020 at 2:34 p.m.

#44

CD282

Joined: Mar. 2017

Posts: 24,044

Likes: 7,749

Quoting: Leafs_and_Sens_Fan

If they take Benning that means they aren't taking any of your other guys. Larsson walks in a year...

I don't think Larsson walks though. I think Holland will try to re-sign him as a future-3RD / shutdown / veteran / PK guy. But only after the draft.

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