Regarding Zacha's defensive strengths:

"In '18-'19 Zacha's on-ice rates for CA/60, SA/60, SCA/60, HDCA/60, and xGA/60 were all top-10 rates among 179 other forwards. His on-ice rate of GA/60 and his individual amount of shots were in the top 10% in the NHL" - quote by @Smitty426

Zacha is not a strong defensive 3C. Leafs get shredded in this deal.

Think that Toronto could use Zadorov more than Zacha.

I don't think Toronto would be interested in another LHD.

In any case, do you think Zadorov + 3rd for Kapanen is a fair trade in isolation? Their salaries are roughly similar so I suppose it could work.

I don't think Toronto would be interested in another LHD.

In any case, do you think Zadorov + 3rd for Kapanen is a fair trade in isolation? Their salaries are roughly similar so I suppose it could work.

Any numbers/stats to backup Hamonic being an effective shutdown Dman?

Additionally, he's had one healthy season in his entire career (and even that was the lockout year).

But players seem to improve once they get into their 30s (bday in Aug) especially ones with long injury histories, and aren't the best skaters to begin with.

There's no way that 5 yr term comes back to haunt the Leafs, also no way they end up kicking themselves for letting go of a younger, quicker, better puck moving and cheaper option for futures.

I agree with the sentiment, but you could probably tone down the sarcasm a bit.

so toronto trades their best chips to get a defender for a 3c who cant play at evens and 'whatever'
lol, k

Zadorov sucks, so no.

they dont need either.

I probably could, it just gets annoying seeing Dermott tossed overboard daily in these ACGMs for nothing (or forgotten completely), but 30 yo dmen that are obviously declining are traded for or signed and would cost double or triple what Dermott would cost.

Makes zero sense.

I'm not a Leafs fan, but I figured that Dermott would be a trade chip given that he often gets included in AGM trades by Leafs fans themselves.

Classic grass is always greener scenarios.

Seeing as it happens often enough to send me on a bit of a rant, I could see why you would view him as a trade chip from another fans perspective.

Really depends. Is a second pairing LD that is a shutdown guy and hits everything in sight worth as much as a 2RW 50 point winger that is a good PK guy. Don't think Toronto needs a LD, but I don't think Colorado needs a RW either. The only reason that the original 3 way trade worked is because Toronto needs to shed salary. Perhaps the better trade is Zadorov for Zacha. NJ could use a big, strong LD and have a lot of center depth and cap space to offset the difference in salary.

he isnt a shut down defender though. he cant defend, which is a big part of being a shut down defender. He's a big guy who can skate ok and hit sometimes. he cant put up points and he cant stop goals. LD or RD they dont need Zadorov

Zadorov is fantastic at defending in transition. He's just not good at tracking guys in a zonal defending system on the cycle. If you use him right he's a tremendous asset, you just need to know what to expect and how to get the best out of him.

Martin Marincin is good at defending in transition, and he sucks. Zadorov is absolutely useless in his own zone and he cant do anything with the puck even if he strips a guy of it. He is not remotely close to being a tremendous asset, he's a big guy with literally one tool in his tool box.

Positive Corsi and Fenwick, PDO over 100, about 70 more hits than the Leafs highest checker all while starting 55% in the Dzone. This year on the ice for 3 SH goals for and 11 against with a remarkable 108 PDO while shorthanded.

You should really watch these guys play before commenting on them.

what? he had a 47.0% CF%, 47.4% FF% and an even wors expected goals against%. You also realise PDO isnt player controlled right? It's simply a tool to measure, for lack of a better term, luck. a 100 PDO basically means that they were neutral in luck (its shooting% + Save %) and anything over 100 is 'good' luck and anything under is 'bad' luck. So, you're basically arguing that Zadorov was benefiting from a higher than average on ice shooting percentage and/or save percentage.
as far as hits, lol, yeah that's an utterly meaningless number and no one who knows anything about stat cares about that.

You should really understand what stats mean before you use them

Over 50% for both at EV. And both goalies had a higher SV% when Zadorov was on the ice short handed. Also he was on the ice for the 4th best SV% among the dmen on the team, which puts him right around the 2nd pairing that I inferred to originally. If you think PDO is just luck, then I don't know what to tell you.

Players have no effect on SV% over large sample sizes. So that's not on him and is utterly meaningless when trying to place zadorov by pairing
And Martin Marincin (who sucks) had a 1% higher EV CF% and FF% than zadorov. And PDO isnt just luck, luck is just the easiest way to describe it because any stats person worth their salt will tell you that individual players do not impact their lines over all shooting percentage or their goalies save percentage over the course of an entire game, let alone season, it is a tool to give you a rough idea of how much a player is benefiting from the team they are on. For instance, if a player's assist rate is high, but they also have a high PDO, then they are probably benefiting from their line shooting the lights out. OR, more relevantly, if a defender has a good goals against rate, say, short handed, and a high PDO, then they are probably benefiting from their goalie playing very well.

good thing i know what to tell you.

Yes, you're 100% correct. The guys in front of the goalie has 0% relation to if a goalie has a good SV% or not. In fact, you could probably throw 5 forwards out there all the time, because the goalies SV% won't be affected. Defenders don't really have any purpose I guess.



At least that has been Toronto's philosophy for years.

I disagree with the theory that a third line centre is a "defensive centre". No, he should be more offensive capabilities. If there is a injury to your top two centres teams need a good offensive centre to take their place.
So the post has the Leafs receiving Zacha, and. Hamonic for Kerfoot, Kapanen and Dermot. No thanks from the Leafs. Five years of Hamonic? Gag.

Dermott and Kerfoot aren't involved in this trade and you would get assets for them via another trade, such as a 2nd each, maybe more. So overall it would be Zacha + Hamonic + 2 2nd's for Kapanen, Dermott, and Kerfoot.

That said, I get your point about the term on Hamonic.

I think a good modern-day 3C should be able to do a bit of everything, but especially be solid defensively to be able to take difficult matchups. A good 3C can make your team really difficult to play against, which is why we saw Pageau get a $5m contract last summer.