Forums/Armchair-GM

Sabres

Created by: Shibbal18
Initial Creation Date: Jul 29, 2020
Published: Jul 29 at 7:36
Team: 2020-21 Buffalo Sabres
Free Agent Signings
RFAYEARSCAP HIT
Kahun, Dominik3$2,800,000
Lazar, Curtis2$900,000
Olofsson, Victor4$4,000,000
Reinhart, Sam6$7,000,000
Ullmark, Linus3$2,750,000
Thompson, Tage2$874,125
Zadorov, Nikita5$3,250,000
UFAYEARSCAP HIT
Perry, Corey2$1,250,000
Galchenyuk, Alex2$1,750,000
Brossoit, Laurent2$1,250,000
Trades
BUF
  1. Dumba, Matt
  2. Foligno, Marcus
MIN
  1. Johansson, Marcus
  2. Montour, Brandon [RFA Rights]
  3. Mittelstadt, Casey [RFA Rights]
BUF
  1. Helm, Darren ($1,925,000 retained)
DET
  1. Johansson, Jonas [RFA Rights]
BUF
  1. Zadorov, Nikita [RFA Rights]
COL
  1. 2020 2nd round pick (BUF)
BUF
  1. Dahlström, Carl
  2. 2020 2nd round pick (WPG)
WPG
  1. Miller, Colin
Buyouts
  • Cody Hodgson: $791,667
  • Christian Ehrhoff: $0
Buried
  • Carter Hutton: $1,675,000 ($2,750,000)
DRAFT YEARROUND 1ROUND 2ROUND 3ROUND 4ROUND 5ROUND 6ROUND 7
2020
BUF
WPG
BUF
BUF
BUF
DAL
2021
BUF
BUF
BUF
BUF
BUF
2022
BUF
BUF
BUF
BUF
BUF
BUF
ROSTER SIZESALARY CAPCAP HITOVERAGES BONUSESCAP SPACE
22$81,500,000$77,180,834$1,275,000$4,337,500$4,319,166
Left WingCenterRight Wing
BUF
Skinner, Jeff
$9,000,000
LW, RW
NMC
UFA - 7
BUF
Eichel, Jack
$10,000,000
C
UFA - 6
BUF
Reinhart, Sam
$7,000,000
RW, C
RFA
BUF
Kahun, Dominik
$2,800,000
LW, RW, C
RFA
Galchenyuk, Alex
$1,750,000
LW, C, RW
UFA
BUF
Olofsson, Victor
$4,000,000
LW, RW
RFA
MIN
Foligno, Marcus
$2,875,000
LW, RW
UFA - 1
BUF
Cozens, Dylan
$894,167
C
RFA - 3
Perry, Corey
$1,250,000
RW
UFA
BUF
Asplund, Rasmus
$845,000
C, LW
RFA - 1
DET
Helm, Darren
$1,925,000
C, LW, RW
UFA - 1
BUF
Okposo, Kyle
$6,000,000
RW
NTC
UFA - 3
Left DefenseRight DefenseGoaltender
BUF
Dahlin, Rasmus
$925,000
LD
RFA - 1
BUF
Ristolainen, Rasmus
$5,400,000
RD
UFA - 2
BUF
Ullmark, Linus
$2,750,000
G
RFA
BUF
McCabe, Jake
$2,850,000
LD
UFA - 1
MIN
Dumba, Matt
$6,000,000
RD
UFA - 3
Brossoit, Laurent
$1,250,000
G
UFA
Zadorov, Nikita
$3,250,000
LD/RD
RFA
BUF
Jokiharju, Henri
$925,000
RD
RFA - 1
ScratchesInjured Reserve (IR)Long Term IR (LTIR)
BUF
Lazar, Curtis
$900,000
C, RW
RFA
WPG
Dahlström, Carl
$850,000
LD
RFA - 1

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Jul 29 at 7:45
#1
Joined: Apr 2020
Posts: 4,574
Likes: 1,394
A 2nd + 3rd is ordinarily the trade value for Zadorov (for example NJ fans like the idea of 2021 NYI 2nd + 2021 NJ 3rd for Zadorov). However, with a 2nd that's at #38 I'd be inclined to accept. Maybe add like a 5th or something minor.
Shibbal18 and HabsFan9 liked this.
Jul 29 at 7:46
#2
Joined: Jun 2020
Posts: 134
Likes: 48
Yep, Still BRUTAL
Sabres923 liked this.
Jul 29 at 7:54
#3
Thread Starter
Shibbal18
Joined: Jan 2016
Posts: 11,794
Likes: 2,916
Quoting: Dcochy
Yep, Still BRUTAL


No.
Jul 29 at 7:56
#4
Joined: Jun 2018
Posts: 752
Likes: 169
That dumba trade is terrible
Paul13, RazWild and TanSor liked this.
Jul 29 at 7:57
#5
Joined: Oct 2019
Posts: 2,122
Likes: 1,224
That's a no from Minnesota
RazWild and TanSor liked this.
Jul 29 at 8:01
#6
Thread Starter
Shibbal18
Joined: Jan 2016
Posts: 11,794
Likes: 2,916
Quoting: newman23
That dumba trade is terrible


Quoting: Paul13
That's a no from Minnesota


Dumba is slightly better than Montour, Johansson and Mittelstadt more than make up Foligno plus the difference
Jul 29 at 8:09
#7
Joined: Jun 2018
Posts: 752
Likes: 169
Quoting: Shibbal18
Dumba is slightly better than Montour, Johansson and Mittelstadt more than make up Foligno plus the difference


wrong. dumba is one of the best dmen in the league. Add a 1st and its a more realistic package
RazWild liked this.
Jul 29 at 8:32
#8
Thread Starter
Shibbal18
Joined: Jan 2016
Posts: 11,794
Likes: 2,916
Quoting: newman23
wrong. dumba is one of the best dmen in the league. Add a 1st and its a more realistic package


No he isnt. Dumba is pure offense, if he isnt scoring his numbers are Ristolainen like
Jul 29 at 9:31
#9
Joined: Jun 2015
Posts: 10,530
Likes: 3,471
rather keep Zads over just a 2nd....a 2nd round pick doesnt help them win in the next season or 2
Jul 29 at 9:43
#10
Joined: Oct 2019
Posts: 2,122
Likes: 1,224
Quoting: Shibbal18
Dumba is slightly better than Montour, Johansson and Mittelstadt more than make up Foligno plus the difference


Quoting: Shibbal18
No he isnt. Dumba is pure offense, if he isnt scoring his numbers are Ristolainen like




Shibbal you're better than this. Don't spread this nonsense. Dumba being bad at defense stems from his earlier career. He has shored it up some since then, yes still mental lapses but not a real liability.
Dumba is a superior defenseman when compared to Montour.
RazWild liked this.
Jul 29 at 10:31
#11
Thread Starter
Shibbal18
Joined: Jan 2016
Posts: 11,794
Likes: 2,916
Quoting: Paul13
Shibbal you're better than this. Don't spread this nonsense. Dumba being bad at defense stems from his earlier career. He has shored it up some since then, yes still mental lapses but not a real liability.
Dumba is a superior defenseman when compared to Montour.

If you want to go purely of bias and ignore data, sure:
https://public.tableau.com/shared/PSGX73S9N?:display_count=y&:origin=viz_share_link
Career average 49% in Corsi and Fenwick the same as Montour
Dumba's ex. GA is in the 16th lowest percentile over the last 2 seasons (lower is worse), Montour's in the 45th. Where is this superior defenseman, I barely see an average one
Jul 29 at 10:33
#12
Thread Starter
Shibbal18
Joined: Jan 2016
Posts: 11,794
Likes: 2,916
Quoting: coga16
rather keep Zads over just a 2nd....a 2nd round pick doesnt help them win in the next season or 2


Byram may though
Jul 29 at 10:42
#13
Joined: Jun 2015
Posts: 10,530
Likes: 3,471
Quoting: Shibbal18
Byram may though


dont think Byram is on the team to start next year. Timmins is NHL ready even looking good in todays exhibition. Cant see them going with 2 rookie Dman at one time. Def not that they are both getting significant playing time with Makar, Girard, EJ, Graves and Cole still there

If CHL season is able to start sometime this fall, it will be well before the NHL next season starts up, so let him play the weird hybrid start seaons in the WHL first and possible WJC, then the new NHL season would be underway with camps
Shibbal18 liked this.
Jul 29 at 11:00
#14
Thread Starter
Shibbal18
Joined: Jan 2016
Posts: 11,794
Likes: 2,916
Quoting: coga16
dont think Byram is on the team to start next year. Timmins is NHL ready even looking good in todays exhibition. Cant see them going with 2 rookie Dman at one time. Def not that they are both getting significant playing time with Makar, Girard, EJ, Graves and Cole still there

If CHL season is able to start sometime this fall, it will be well before the NHL next season starts up, so let him play the weird hybrid start seaons in the WHL first and possible WJC, then the new NHL season would be underway with camps


The way Byram has been hyped, i would have thought he has been ready
Jul 29 at 11:09
#15
Joined: Jun 2015
Posts: 10,530
Likes: 3,471
Quoting: Shibbal18
The way Byram has been hyped, i would have thought he has been ready


Dont get me wrong they can put him in the line up and he will look good, its just too deep even after you move out Zads. Timmins is the real deal too so I just dont think they want to do 2 rookies at once, they still have some luxury to wait with Byram if they want

The plan was for him to do a Makar playoff debut before teh pandemic hit, so who knows, they might go yolo and play 2 rookies
Shibbal18 liked this.
Jul 30 at 10:59
#16
Joined: Oct 2019
Posts: 2,122
Likes: 1,224
Quoting: Shibbal18
If you want to go purely of bias and ignore data, sure:
https://public.tableau.com/shared/PSGX73S9N?:display_count=y&:origin=viz_share_link
Career average 49% in Corsi and Fenwick the same as Montour
Dumba's ex. GA is in the 16th lowest percentile over the last 2 seasons (lower is worse), Montour's in the 45th. Where is this superior defenseman, I barely see an average one


I mean you can pick the analytics stats that best fits your argument but no one will agree with you that Montour and Dumba are close in value.
RazWild liked this.
Jul 30 at 11:57
#17
Thread Starter
Shibbal18
Joined: Jan 2016
Posts: 11,794
Likes: 2,916
Quoting: Paul13
I mean you can pick the analytics stats that best fits your argument but no one will agree with you that Montour and Dumba are close in value.


do you have better defensive analytics? That prove he is superior and one of the best in the league as well? https://thehockeywriters.com/matt-dumba-2018-19-injury-luck/
this article is from last August, but his numbers were down again this year. "Dumba also has his struggles defensively, likely because of his positioning. He is not very good in his own end, to say the least, and while his defense may improve in the future, he likely will always have his defensive flaws because he likes to jump up in the rush and keep pucks in the offensive zone."
Jul 30 at 12:45
#18
Joined: Jun 2020
Posts: 464
Likes: 335
Quoting: Shibbal18
do you have better defensive analytics? That prove he is superior and one of the best in the league as well? https://thehockeywriters.com/matt-dumba-2018-19-injury-luck/
this article is from last August, but his numbers were down again this year. "Dumba also has his struggles defensively, likely because of his positioning. He is not very good in his own end, to say the least, and while his defense may improve in the future, he likely will always have his defensive flaws because he likes to jump up in the rush and keep pucks in the offensive zone."


So? It's not anything Wild fans don't already know. Except we've watched him from the very beginning we know what Dumba's ceiling is, do you? Analytics are great, but only when used in lockstep with long-term eye tests on players.

Newsflash, just because he's an offensive defenseman doesn't mean he can't play defense. While it is true that it will never be anything special, it derives fully with if his game is on or not. When he's on a tear and putting pucks in the net he stops trying to hard and his defense improves by leaps and bounds. He's also improved quite a bit defensively when not on his game either. He's not the black hole you think he is.

Your giving Dumba undue disservice for his bad play these last two years. It doesn't take analytics for anyone with half an idea of what's going on and watched him for any length of time to see why he was bad.

1) It was a massive injury that clearly took the two years to fully recover. He was never playing at a full 100%, More like 75%.

2) Word was out on him, teams literally just double teamed him and didn't give him the time or space to get a effective shot off.

They did that knowing the Wild didn't have the offensive threats necessary to spread out their PK defense.

He's looked like his old self throughout camp and is finally back to 100%.

But the reason his value is simply better than Montour's is easy. Montour is a #4 2nd pairing defenseman, that's the extent of his ceiling. Dumba is a top 4 defenseman, he can fully play on a top pair. Why do you think the Wild's defense is always considered to be in the top 5 in the league? It's because we're not playing one but two top lines in our top 4.
Paul13 liked this.
Jul 30 at 12:56
#19
Thread Starter
Shibbal18
Joined: Jan 2016
Posts: 11,794
Likes: 2,916
Quoting: RazWild
So? It's not anything Wild fans don't already know. Except we've watched him from the very beginning we know what Dumba's ceiling is, do you? Analytics are great, but only when used in lockstep with long-term eye tests on players.

Newsflash, just because he's an offensive defenseman doesn't mean he can't play defense. While it is true that it will never be anything special, it derives fully with if his game is on or not. When he's on a tear and putting pucks in the net he stops trying to hard and his defense improves by leaps and bounds. He's also improved quite a bit defensively when not on his game either. He's not the black hole you think he is.

Your giving Dumba undue disservice for his bad play these last two years. It doesn't take analytics for anyone with half an idea of what's going on and watched him for any length of time to see why he was bad.

1) It was a massive injury that clearly took the two years to fully recover. He was never playing at a full 100%, More like 75%.

2) Word was out on him, teams literally just double teamed him and didn't give him the time or space to get a effective shot off.

They did that knowing the Wild didn't have the offensive threats necessary to spread out their PK defense.

He's looked like his old self throughout camp and is finally back to 100%.

But the reason his value is simply better than Montour's is easy. Montour is a #4 2nd pairing defenseman, that's the extent of his ceiling. Dumba is a top 4 defenseman, he can fully play on a top pair. Why do you think the Wild's defense is always considered to be in the top 5 in the league? It's because we're not playing one but two top lines in our top 4.


I never doubted his offensive ability or i wouldnt want him. But Dumba gets sheltered and when he was healthy he was bad in his own end, coming from Minnesota's own media. And no one here has shown data to discredit that, just bias and opinions
Jul 30 at 1:11
#20
Joined: Jun 2020
Posts: 464
Likes: 335
Quoting: Shibbal18
I never doubted his offensive ability or i wouldnt want him. But Dumba gets sheltered and when he was healthy he was bad in his own end, coming from Minnesota's own media. And no one here has shown data to discredit that, just bias and opinions


Our own media hasn't been down on Dumba since his 4th year in the league. And back when they were, they more often than not attributed it to growing pains. All players go through them.

I get that, but analytics isn't everything. You've now had multiple Wild fans tell you his defense is better than what you think it is or claim it to be. You've yet to stop arguing that point. We never claimed he was a defensive guru or anything, we simply stated that he's not the liability you make him out to be.

I'd say a good chunk of his bad defense, around 60% of it or so, stems from trying too hard. That is why I pointed out his offense, when it's going, he plays defense 100× better. When it's not, it's probably more around 47% better than his earlier career.

It's not great, but it's livable.

It still doesn't mean that he and Montour have the same kind of value. Analytics or not. A players ceiling and where they're capable of playing matter.
Paul13 liked this.
Jul 30 at 2:29
#21
Thread Starter
Shibbal18
Joined: Jan 2016
Posts: 11,794
Likes: 2,916
Quoting: RazWild
Our own media hasn't been down on Dumba since his 4th year in the league. And back when they were, they more often than not attributed it to growing pains. All players go through them.

I get that, but analytics isn't everything. You've now had multiple Wild fans tell you his defense is better than what you think it is or claim it to be. You've yet to stop arguing that point. We never claimed he was a defensive guru or anything, we simply stated that he's not the liability you make him out to be.

I'd say a good chunk of his bad defense, around 60% of it or so, stems from trying too hard. That is why I pointed out his offense, when it's going, he plays defense 100× better. When it's not, it's probably more around 47% better than his earlier career.

It's not great, but it's livable.

It still doesn't mean that he and Montour have the same kind of value. Analytics or not. A players ceiling and where they're capable of playing matter.


yes multiple Wild fans have given me their opinion on their player. This opinion contradicts stats and professional evaluation. Clearly the stats are wrong
Jul 30 at 3:36
#22
Joined: Jun 2020
Posts: 464
Likes: 335
Quoting: Shibbal18
yes multiple Wild fans have given me their opinion on their player. This opinion contradicts stats and professional evaluation. Clearly the stats are wrong


Stats are purely a supplemental addendum. They don't tell the whole story, or ever will. They can't account for if a players hot or cold, it all gets averaged out. It can't tell you if a player is struggling with an injury or was merely deployed on the wrong line or position, partnered with someone they have no chemistry with. It also doesn't account for a players ceiling or were they can play.

In the end, you can wind up with players on opposite sides of the lineup order who wind up with the same analytics. For example a 1st line winger compared to a 4th line guy. The 1st line player might have better stats, but the underlying analytics say that they were exactly the same in every other way. Does that mean you put the fourth liner on the top line, and expect the same results? Or is their value equal? Should you get the same return from the 4th liner as you should with the 1st liner, despite the identical analytics?

Dumba isn't there for his defense, which is passable, it's to score goals and to step up in the zone as a 4th player. No one in their right mind plays an offensive defenseman without pairing them with a two-way or defensive defenseman to cover their ass. That's hockey 101.

Montour doesn't have Dumba's shot, or step up in the play like Dumba does. He also shies away from taking hits or giving them, conversely, he wont drop the gloves. Dumba does all of these.

Again, you can play Dumba on a top pairing. You can't with Montour.

I don't care if the analytics are the same. Dumba has more value than Montour by being a top 4 defenseman and Montour isn't.
Paul13 liked this.
Jul 30 at 4:49
#23
Thread Starter
Shibbal18
Joined: Jan 2016
Posts: 11,794
Likes: 2,916
Quoting: RazWild
Stats are purely a supplemental addendum. They don't tell the whole story, or ever will. They can't account for if a players hot or cold, it all gets averaged out. It can't tell you if a player is struggling with an injury or was merely deployed on the wrong line or position, partnered with someone they have no chemistry with. It also doesn't account for a players ceiling or were they can play.

In the end, you can wind up with players on opposite sides of the lineup order who wind up with the same analytics. For example a 1st line winger compared to a 4th line guy. The 1st line player might have better stats, but the underlying analytics say that they were exactly the same in every other way. Does that mean you put the fourth liner on the top line, and expect the same results? Or is their value equal? Should you get the same return from the 4th liner as you should with the 1st liner, despite the identical analytics?

Dumba isn't there for his defense, which is passable, it's to score goals and to step up in the zone as a 4th player. No one in their right mind plays an offensive defenseman without pairing them with a two-way or defensive defenseman to cover their ass. That's hockey 101.

Montour doesn't have Dumba's shot, or step up in the play like Dumba does. He also shies away from taking hits or giving them, conversely, he wont drop the gloves. Dumba does all of these.

Again, you can play Dumba on a top pairing. You can't with Montour.

I don't care if the analytics are the same. Dumba has more value than Montour by being a top 4 defenseman and Montour isn't.


"Dumba isn't there for his defense, which is passable" this is my entire argument, Im glad you and your handshaker Paul agree
Paul13 liked this.
Jul 30 at 5:00
#24
Joined: Jun 2020
Posts: 464
Likes: 335
Quoting: Shibbal18
"Dumba isn't there for his defense, which is passable" this is my entire argument, Im glad you and your handshaker Paul agree


Then you can keep Montour, and everything else, it was a bad trade for Minnesota to start off with and didn't do a damn thing to help the Wild's needs in regards to a top six center to begin with, because Mittelstadt clearly has shown he isn't one. Montour isn't a replacement for Dumba, no matter how much you claim otherwise, and a C-Level prospect for a guy who's a candidate to be our next team captain.
Paul13 liked this.
Jul 30 at 5:03
#25
Thread Starter
Shibbal18
Joined: Jan 2016
Posts: 11,794
Likes: 2,916
Quoting: RazWild
Then you can keep Montour, and everything else, it was a bad trade for Minnesota to start off with and didn't do a damn thing to help the Wild's needs in regards to a top six center to begin with, because Mittelstadt clearly has shown he isn't one. Montour isn't a replacement for Dumba, no matter how much you claim otherwise, and a C-Level prospect for a guy who's a candidate to be our next team captain.


WeLl UsInG tHe EyE tEsT MiTtElStAdT hAs ShOwN hE cAn StIlL bE a ToP 6 CeNtEr.
 
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