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If They Didnt Overpay Marner

Created by: AnalyticsGeek
Team: 2020-21 Toronto Maple Leafs
Initial Creation Date: Dec. 7, 2020
Published: Dec. 7, 2020
Salary Cap Mode: Basic
Description
For me, the biggest mistake of the Kyle Dubas era will always be the Mitch Marner contract. Even though he is an excellent player, there is no way to justify paying him the same amount as the franchise cornerstones John Tavares and Auston Matthews. With the cap savings from him, the team could've afforded to sign a 2RD and their roster would be unstoppable.
Free Agent Signings
RFAYEARSCAP HIT
2$3,500,000
CREATEDYEARSCAP HIT
Marner, Mitchell
5$9,250,000
Offer Sheets
Offer sheet annual average (AAV) is calculated by dividing the contract value by the lower of: 1. The contract length, or 2. Five years
PLAYERAAVCOMPENSATION
Cernak, Erik$3,500,000
2021 2nd round pick
Trades
TOR
  1. 2023 3rd round pick (TBL)
Retained Salary Transactions
Buried
DraftRound 1Round 2Round 3Round 4Round 5Round 6Round 7
2021
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the TOR
2022
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the TOR
2023
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the TBL
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the TOR
ROSTER SIZESALARY CAPCAP HITOVERAGES TooltipBONUSESCAP SPACE
22$81,500,000$81,321,741$0$0$178,259

Roster

Left WingCentreRight Wing
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$2,250,000$2,250,000
RW, LW
M-NTC
UFA - 1
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$11,640,250$11,640,250
C
UFA - 4
Marner, Mitchell
$9,250,000$9,250,000
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$1,645,000$1,645,000
LW, RW
UFA - 2
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$11,000,000$11,000,000
C, LW
NMC
UFA - 5
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$6,962,366$6,962,366
RW
UFA - 4
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$900,000$900,000
RW, LW
UFA - 1
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$3,500,000$3,500,000
LW, C, RW
UFA - 3
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$925,000$925,000
RW, LW
UFA - 1
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$1,500,000$1,500,000
RW, LW
NTC
UFA - 1
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$700,000$700,000
C, RW
UFA - 1
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$700,000$700,000
C, LW
NMC
UFA - 1
Left DefenseRight DefenseGoaltender
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$5,625,000$5,625,000
LD
NMC
UFA - 4
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$5,000,000$5,000,000
LD/RD
NMC
UFA - 4
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$5,000,000$5,000,000
G
M-NTC
UFA - 1
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$5,000,000$5,000,000
LD
M-NTC
UFA - 2
$3,500,000$3,500,000
RD
UFA - 3
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$1,650,000$1,650,000
G
UFA - 2
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$925,000$925,000
LD
UFA - 1
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$874,125$874,125
LD/RD
UFA - 1
ScratchesInjured Reserve (IR)Long Term IR (LTIR)
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$700,000$700,000
C, RW
UFA - 1
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$10,903,000$10,903,000
RW
UFA - 5
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$700,000$700,000
LD
UFA - 1

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Dec. 7, 2020 at 6:37 p.m.
#51
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You can beat a dead horse all you want, but you arent going to make it move. Move on and get another horse.
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Dec. 7, 2020 at 6:37 p.m.
#52
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Quoting: oneX
It's not "Leafs fans" it's one guy making ACGMs over and over again with the Marner contract being the talking point.

Most Leafs fans have long moved on and so this one twat keeps Capfriendly busy with his one idea over and over again.


one guy who is basically a pens fan at that
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Dec. 7, 2020 at 7:02 p.m.
#53
Ovchinnikov 137
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Quoting: Lyle_Bubas
he played over half of his 5v5 ice time with one of matthews or JT in 18-19, I'd hope he could muster up 20 goals lmao

b967b6ddfd6274dddb13b7a3e535df2b.png

I'll never forget when we tried to play kappy with JT at the start of 19-20 and he absolute murdered the line and we had to bury him back on the third line


No wonder Naz point totals fell off a cliff, look at his linemates. Would have been nice to see him get more shifts with Marner or Nylander.
Dec. 7, 2020 at 7:04 p.m.
#54
Go leafs go
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Quoting: Lyle_Bubas
64a117c8f90368491a2dddc2e6f7ac3f.png

I'd rather have vesey than kappy tbh


Oh c'mon even you know Kappy>Vesey. Now, Vesey is a great piece at less than 1 mil, but without a doubt Kappy>Vesey.
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Dec. 7, 2020 at 7:05 p.m.
#55
Go leafs go
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Quoting: MitchMarner_16
You can beat a dead horse all you want, but you arent going to make it move. Move on and get another horse.


Exactly.
Dec. 7, 2020 at 7:06 p.m.
#56
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Quoting: LeafsfanMathews
Dude everything I’ve said on this was John Tavares propped up Marner, and yes you can say the same thing for JT stats. My original statement was if no JT, no way in hell Marner gets 10.89. That’s it


did JT prop up marner or did marner prop up JT? Marner's goals didn't go up astronomically with JT, only a couple more. It's his primary assists that shot through the roof. Notably, his ice time went up as well, about 3 minutes per game on average

if the argument is that JT made marner a better player and unlocked his ability to do more ridiculous stuff to set up goals (bc JT is an amazing finisher), then idk how that's bad

if we don't sign JT and marner is a career 70 pointer, you think that's better? I'd rather him challenge for 100p every year playing with JT than be a meh 70 pointer
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Dec. 7, 2020 at 7:15 p.m.
#57
Ovchinnikov 137
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Quoting: Lyle_Bubas
did JT prop up marner or did marner prop up JT? Marner's goals didn't go up astronomically with JT, only a couple more. It's his primary assists that shot through the roof. Notably, his ice time went up as well, about 3 minutes per game on average

if the argument is that JT made marner a better player and unlocked his ability to do more ridiculous stuff to set up goals (bc JT is an amazing finisher), then idk how that's bad

if we don't sign JT and marner is a career 70 pointer, you think that's better? I'd rather him challenge for 100p every year playing with JT than be a meh 70 pointer


Agree with all of this. My point from day 1 and will be is the signing of John Tavares set the standard for the Leafs contracts, especially MARNER. Yes they both made each other better. But I have a sneaky suspicion that even if JT doesn’t sign here, Mathews and Marner form an incredible duo. Yes, John Tavares effected Marner getting 10.89mil. Can we pls just agree on that. That’s all I’ve ever been trying to say.
Dec. 7, 2020 at 7:17 p.m.
#58
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Quoting: Saskleaf
Oh c'mon even you know Kappy>Vesey. Now, Vesey is a great piece at less than 1 mil, but without a doubt Kappy>Vesey.


4f34502be68024aed3101e6c61d7fb5c.png

vesey seems to score a lot more. he played about 13min per game in his rookie year, 16g 11a, 14m the next year, 17g 11a, 16m the next year with 17g 18a - then in buffalo he got stuck playing 13m a night again, still put up 9g 20p with basically zero powerplay time, for whatever reason (23 seconds per game on average down from 2m averages before)

kappy had one seasons playing with a mix of matthews tavares and kadri, he had 20g and more secondary assists than primary assists

even this year, playing a quarter of his time with matthews/tavares/marner etc. he only mustered up 13g and 23 assists, with a third of his overall points being secondary assists and playing a lot more than vesey did

the main reason for the points differences between kappy/vesey are basically secondary assists. goals and primary assists they are relatively similar, and vesey has played on much worse teams with much worse players

kappy is the more established player ofc but goddamn I'm curious to see how vesey plays now, with an actual good team >: )
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Dec. 7, 2020 at 7:19 p.m.
#59
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Edited Dec. 7, 2020 at 7:24 p.m.
Quoting: LeafsfanMathews
Agree with all of this. My point from day 1 and will be is the signing of John Tavares set the standard for the Leafs contracts, especially MARNER. Yes they both made each other better. But I have a sneaky suspicion that even if JT doesn’t sign here, Mathews and Marner form an incredible duo. Yes, John Tavares effected Marner getting 10.89mil. Can we pls just agree on that. That’s all I’ve ever been trying to say.


acquiring good players is bad because they elevate everybody around them? that's bad? I genuinely don't understand how that could possibly be a negative. If marner gets $7.5M and scores 70 points vs. marner making 10.8M and potentially scoring 110 points, how is the latter scenario not better?
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Dec. 7, 2020 at 7:39 p.m.
#60
Go leafs go
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Quoting: Lyle_Bubas
4f34502be68024aed3101e6c61d7fb5c.png

vesey seems to score a lot more. he played about 13min per game in his rookie year, 16g 11a, 14m the next year, 17g 11a, 16m the next year with 17g 18a - then in buffalo he got stuck playing 13m a night again, still put up 9g 20p with basically zero powerplay time, for whatever reason (23 seconds per game on average down from 2m averages before)

kappy had one seasons playing with a mix of matthews tavares and kadri, he had 20g and more secondary assists than primary assists

even this year, playing a quarter of his time with matthews/tavares/marner etc. he only mustered up 13g and 23 assists, with a third of his overall points being secondary assists and playing a lot more than vesey did

the main reason for the points differences between kappy/vesey are basically secondary assists. goals and primary assists they are relatively similar, and vesey has played on much worse teams with much worse players

kappy is the more established player ofc but goddamn I'm curious to see how vesey plays now, with an actual good team >: )


Ok, they are more similar than I thought. Still Kappy>Vesey but I am kind of suprised at how close they are.
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Dec. 7, 2020 at 7:39 p.m.
#61
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Quoting: Lyle_Bubas
acquiring good players is bad because they elevate everybody around them? got it, JT was a bad idea

( ͡° ͜ʖ ͡°)( ͡° ͜ʖ ͡°)( ͡° ͜ʖ ͡°)( ͡° ͜ʖ ͡°)( ͡° ͜ʖ ͡°)( ͡° ͜ʖ ͡°)( ͡° ͜ʖ ͡°)( ͡° ͜ʖ ͡°)


Fine, whatever dude. I must hate the Leafs.
Dec. 7, 2020 at 7:46 p.m.
#62
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Quoting: LeafsfanMathews
Fine, whatever dude. I must hate the Leafs.


Quoting: Lyle_Bubas
acquiring good players is bad because they elevate everybody around them? that's bad? I genuinely don't understand how that could possibly be a negative. If marner gets $7.5M and scores 70 points vs. marner making 10.8M and potentially scoring 110 points, how is the latter scenario not better?
Dec. 7, 2020 at 8:00 p.m.
#63
Formerly Jamiepo
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Quoting: LeafsfanMathews
Can you read?
My point was Tavares’s contract set the table for the Marner contract. Are you telling me that he still scores 94 points and gets 10.89 without JT on the Leafs. Give me a break


Nope, Mcdavid set the bar for Matthews and Matthews for marner. Ones a ufa and the others were rfa.
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Dec. 7, 2020 at 8:02 p.m.
#64
Formerly Jamiepo
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Quoting: Lyle_Bubas
sry, got that talking point mixed up with johnsson + kappy

just in terms of kappy's 3.2M though, vesey simmonds and thornton I would much rather have over just kappy

also, I never wanted a first for kappy, no doubt some did. He was hilariously over valued here and that showed even after he was traded. He had a rep as this scrappy winger who in reality was lazy, one dimensional and more often than not took stupid penalties. He put up decent numbers with matthews, but even then, he's a third liner playing first line minutes, he's not a top 6 winger


I liked how he played. Very good at stripping pucks. Just as his offence was though... not thinking the game enough to have it show up well on advanced stats.
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Dec. 7, 2020 at 8:08 p.m.
#65
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Quoting: Lyle_Bubas
acquiring good players is bad because they elevate everybody around them? that's bad? I genuinely don't understand how that could possibly be a negative. If marner gets $7.5M and scores 70 points vs. marner making 10.8M and potentially scoring 110 points, how is the latter scenario not better?


Had this exact discussion with him before... with almost the same response as yours lol.

You can say JT got marner to 94 points but it’s not something you can prove or disprove.

The part I disagree with is Matthews and marner pointing to JT for their contracts.

Matthews pointed to Mcdavid and marner to Matthews.
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Dec. 8, 2020 at 12:24 p.m.
#66
Please win the cup
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Quoting: mhockey91
The leafs bias is REAL.
Good joke

Leafs bias isn't real, it's called Favorite team bias, everyone has it
Dec. 8, 2020 at 3:25 p.m.
#67
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Quoting: TheresAlwaysNextYear
I don't think Cernak is the missing piece


Well then, what’d you think is the missing piece? This team has elite offence, they have grit. I feel they are a solid 4D away from contending.
Dec. 8, 2020 at 3:26 p.m.
#68
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Quoting: habsfan00
marner isnt overpayed not for the 100 points he CAN produce


He had the potential to score 100+ points but he hasn’t done it yet!
Dec. 8, 2020 at 3:29 p.m.
#69
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Quoting: TheLeafsSeason
You can't win a cup with Vesey on your team and Barabanov is unproven, so I don't understand why people are putting him on the third line


Why are you low on Vesey? The guy doesn’t have much skill but he brings grit. Will win a lot of puck battles. Barabanov will become a similar player to Sheary. Small but feisty who is effective on the forecheck.
Dec. 8, 2020 at 3:32 p.m.
#70
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Quoting: Barilko14
We get it, you don't like the contract, what's the point of carrying on about it for years?

And especially making ACGMs with a lower contract? It's done, it's not going to change.


I just wanted to showcase the possibilities the Leafs would have if they saved money on the Marner contract.
Dec. 8, 2020 at 3:34 p.m.
#71
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Quoting: mhockey91
Everyone knows marner is overpaid, and you’ve made these posts a million times. Nothing is going to change as mentioned. Is this a fair contract for marner? Yes. But you’ve made the exact same armchair post 15 times now.


Fair criticism, I just feel most people would consider the Leafs contenders if they didn’t give Marner 11 Million.
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Dec. 8, 2020 at 3:37 p.m.
#72
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Quoting: Lyle_Bubas
67a8e741420f405d62343a7d9bc46096.png

call me crazy, but where's the $1.5M in difference here?

again, Holl is so hilariously underrated by leafs fans (even I was guilty of this before). It may have been an anomaly, and we shall see come this season - but good god, he played quite well with Muzzin - and it was his first full year in the NHL not being a healthy scratch

give the guy a chance lol


Quoting: faulkmydzingel
I think they will be fine with Holl.


Quoting: JaredOfLondon
because holl looked bad for half a dozen games with not great partners while Cernack looked great on tv playing with elite partners


I feel people are not so confident in Holl because he’s only played at a high level for 1 season. If he keeps it up, he will not only establish himself as a serviceable top 4 D, but people will start to consider the Leafs contenders.
Dec. 8, 2020 at 3:42 p.m.
#73
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Quoting: MitchMarnerElite
He had the potential to score 100+ points but he hasn’t done it yet!


90something isnt enough
Dec. 9, 2020 at 9:16 a.m.
#74
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How about if they didn't just retain on Kessel for forever
 
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