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Price check on Johansen

Created by: OutCold13
Team: 2020-21 Minnesota Wild
Initial Creation Date: Feb. 19, 2021
Published: Feb. 28, 2021
Salary Cap Mode: Basic
Description
How far does this team go in the playoffs? I do realize that this put Guerin in a difficult place when it comes to expansion, but if he believes this team can win then you go forward and except that you may lose a good player.
I am still not certain Johansen is a good idea for the Wild but @TanSor had a strong argument and I figure it's worth looking into.
Trades
MIN
  1. Johansen, Ryan
Additional Details:
Not sure I've nailed the value, @TanSor kinda got my mind thinking on this and so I'm trying to hash it out.
NSH
  1. Johansson, Marcus
  2. Rask, Victor
  3. 2021 1st round pick (MIN)
Additional Details:
I know Johansson has little value to the Preds but he is to offset cap and keep Preds from having to retain. Rask isn't great but he can be productive when used in offensive zone starts. The 1st and the freed up cap space is the prize for Nashville. Keep in mind finding a team that can take the entire cap hit will be difficult.
Retained Salary Transactions
DraftRound 1Round 2Round 3Round 4Round 5Round 6Round 7
2021
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2022
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2023
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ROSTER SIZESALARY CAPCAP HITOVERAGES TooltipBONUSESCAP SPACE
21$81,500,000$75,439,424$0$925,000$6,060,576
Left WingCentreRight Wing
Logo of the Minnesota Wild
$2,100,000$2,100,000
LW, RW
UFA - 2
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$1,487,500$1,487,500
C
UFA - 1
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$3,000,000$3,000,000
RW, LW
UFA - 1
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$6,000,000$6,000,000
RW, LW
NMC
UFA - 4
Logo of the Nashville Predators
$4,000,000$4,000,000
C, RW
UFA - 5
Logo of the Minnesota Wild
$925,000$925,000 (Performance Bonus$925,000$925K)
LW
UFA - 1
Logo of the Minnesota Wild
$7,538,462$7,538,462
LW
NMC
UFA - 5
Logo of the Minnesota Wild
$1,900,000$1,900,000
C, RW
UFA - 1
Logo of the Minnesota Wild
$2,875,000$2,875,000
RW, LW
UFA - 1
Logo of the Minnesota Wild
$725,000$725,000
C
UFA - 2
Logo of the Minnesota Wild
$4,100,000$4,100,000
C, LW
UFA - 1
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$2,050,000$2,050,000
C, RW
UFA - 1
Left DefenseRight DefenseGoaltender
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$6,000,000$6,000,000
RD
UFA - 3
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$3,666,667$3,666,667
G
UFA - 3
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$4,166,667$4,166,667
LD
NMC
UFA - 1
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$7,575,000$7,575,000
RD
NMC
UFA - 7
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$725,000$725,000
G
UFA - 2
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$7,538,462$7,538,462
LD
NMC
UFA - 5
Logo of the Minnesota Wild
$2,750,000$2,750,000
LD/RD
UFA - 3
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$3,450,000$3,450,000
LD/RD
UFA - 1
ScratchesInjured Reserve (IR)Long Term IR (LTIR)
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$700,000$700,000
LD/RD
UFA - 1
Taxi Squad
Logo of the Minnesota Wild
$700,000$700,000 ($0$0$0$0)
C
UFA - 1
Logo of the Minnesota Wild
$700,000$700,000 ($0$0$0$0)
C, RW
UFA - 1
Logo of the Minnesota Wild
$700,000$700,000 ($0$0$0$0)
LD/RD
UFA - 1
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$700,000$700,000 ($0$0$0$0)
LW, C
UFA - 1
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$785,000$785,000 ($0$0$0$0)
G
UFA - 2

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Feb. 28, 2021 at 4:47 p.m.
#1
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What about bjugstad and mojo when the cap can work so you can have 3 lines?
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Feb. 28, 2021 at 4:49 p.m.
#2
Hockey247
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pretty sure preds would say yes, he has a huge contract
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Feb. 28, 2021 at 4:50 p.m.
#3
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I'd drop the 1st, RyJo is a cap dump for them at this point. They don't get to be rewarded with a 1st rounder for someone who hasn't looked good for the last couple of years.

Maybe throw in Khovanov if the value isn't there for the Preds.

But you are already are helping them out by moving that monstrosity of a contract and gain valuable cap space as a result. It's already a massive win for them.
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Feb. 28, 2021 at 5:40 p.m.
#4
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Quoting: Ragsandbluesfan
What about bjugstad and mojo when the cap can work so you can have 3 lines?


Problem is we need cap next year for Kaprizov, Fiala, and Ek so trading Rask would be required to make it work.
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Feb. 28, 2021 at 5:44 p.m.
#5
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Quoting: TanSor
Problem is we need cap next year for Kaprizov, Fiala, and Ek so trading Rask would be required to make it work.


Wouldn't kap probably take a 2 year bridge to take him to 26? Not to mention about 7½ from bonino and cole
Feb. 28, 2021 at 5:49 p.m.
#6
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Quoting: RazWild
I'd drop the 1st, RyJo is a cap dump for them at this point. They don't get to be rewarded with a 1st rounder for someone who hasn't looked good for the last couple of years.

Maybe throw in Khovanov if the value isn't there for the Preds.

But you are already are helping them out by moving that monstrosity of a contract and gain valuable cap space as a result. It's already a massive win for them.


So here is my argument that I made to @OutCold13:

"A 1st might be too much for Johansen, but if Nashville retained, took back some cap with Rask (and maybe Bjugstad to make it fit this year), and we ended up with a $6M playmaking center who has been a career 60 point guy (and has multiple seasons with close to 50 assists), I'd be very interested. What this team lacks is a big, playmaking, right shot center who is good on the dot and can hold his own in the defensive end. That's what Johansen has been throughout his career. He also excels at getting the puck to his wingers and we need somebody like that for Fiala/Kaprizov (though we sort of have a distributer for Kaprizov with Zucc). At 28 he isn't young, but he also isn't old. I might be on an island here but I think he'd be a great fit for this team at $6M."

He hasn't looked like the same player his last 82 games, but he has almost 500 games prior to that of being a very productive top 6 center. I think he just needs a change in scenery at this point, sort of like Staal did before he came here. Another thing that I didn't mention to @OutCold13 is that Laviolette was fired in January last year, Hynes stepped in, and that's when Johansen's play took a dip. I'm not saying it's Hynes fault, but it could be that Hynes just isn't a good coach (which their record for how much talent should prove) and/or Hynes' system isn't a good fit for Johansen.
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Feb. 28, 2021 at 5:51 p.m.
#7
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Quoting: Ragsandbluesfan
Wouldn't kap probably take a 2 year bridge to take him to 26? Not to mention about 7½ from bonino and cole


Signing Kap to a bridge is basically suicide for us. He has no arbitration rights this year and he can't sign an offer sheet so the smart thing is to get him signed to a long term deal immediately. I doubt we re-sign Cole and Bonino unless they're willing to take league min deals.
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Feb. 28, 2021 at 6:10 p.m.
#8
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Quoting: TanSor
Signing Kap to a bridge is basically suicide for us. He has no arbitration rights this year and he can't sign an offer sheet so the smart thing is to get him signed to a long term deal immediately. I doubt we re-sign Cole and Bonino unless they're willing to take league min deals.


I meant getting the cap from cole and bonino leaving, and you think kap would sign for 8 years off the bat?
Feb. 28, 2021 at 6:14 p.m.
#9
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Quoting: Ragsandbluesfan
I meant getting the cap from cole and bonino leaving, and you think kap would sign for 8 years off the bat?


Even with those two deals expiring we would have to get rid of Rask in a Johansen trade.

He wouldn't really have a choice if we don't offer him a bridge. I guess he could always threaten to go back to Russia but he probably wouldn't make as much money.
Feb. 28, 2021 at 6:15 p.m.
#10
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Quoting: TanSor
Even with those two deals expiring we would have to get rid of Rask in a Johansen trade.

He wouldn't really have a choice if we don't offer him a bridge. I guess he could always threaten to go back to Russia but he probably wouldn't make as much money.


What would you even give him on an 8 year deal like 6-7?
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Feb. 28, 2021 at 6:18 p.m.
#11
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Quoting: Ragsandbluesfan
What would you even give him on an 8 year deal like 6-7?


I'd be happy with $7M AAV on an 8 year deal. $6M is obviously better for the team of course
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Feb. 28, 2021 at 6:19 p.m.
#12
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Quoting: TanSor
Signing Kap to a bridge is basically suicide for us. He has no arbitration rights this year and he can't sign an offer sheet so the smart thing is to get him signed to a long term deal immediately. I doubt we re-sign Cole and Bonino unless they're willing to take league min deals.


I think you give Kaprizov a 6 year deal. It'll still give him a chance at another big payday when he hits UFA at 30, so the AAV should be a little lower than an 8 year deal.
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Feb. 28, 2021 at 6:19 p.m.
#13
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Quoting: TanSor
Even with those two deals expiring we would have to get rid of Rask in a Johansen trade.

He wouldn't really have a choice if we don't offer him a bridge. I guess he could always threaten to go back to Russia but he probably wouldn't make as much money.


Yeah but that doesn't seem like Billy's style I bet he shows him 3 contracts. A bridge, a medium term deal like Zuccarello's and a 8 year one with more money.
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Feb. 28, 2021 at 6:26 p.m.
#14
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Quoting: TanSor
So here is my argument that I made to OutCold13:

"A 1st might be too much for Johansen, but if Nashville retained, took back some cap with Rask (and maybe Bjugstad to make it fit this year), and we ended up with a $6M playmaking center who has been a career 60 point guy (and has multiple seasons with close to 50 assists), I'd be very interested. What this team lacks is a big, playmaking, right shot center who is good on the dot and can hold his own in the defensive end. That's what Johansen has been throughout his career. He also excels at getting the puck to his wingers and we need somebody like that for Fiala/Kaprizov (though we sort of have a distributer for Kaprizov with Zucc). At 28 he isn't young, but he also isn't old. I might be on an island here but I think he'd be a great fit for this team at $6M."

He hasn't looked like the same player his last 82 games, but he has almost 500 games prior to that of being a very productive top 6 center. I think he just needs a change in scenery at this point, sort of like Staal did before he came here. Another thing that I didn't mention to OutCold13 is that Laviolette was fired in January last year, Hynes stepped in, and that's when Johansen's play took a dip. I'm not saying it's Hynes fault, but it could be that Hynes just isn't a good coach (which their record for how much talent should prove) and/or Hynes' system isn't a good fit for Johansen.


With his age and term, I think we’d need a cap hit of 5 mil or less and preferably 4. I’m gonna use Danault as a base case here because I believe we will sign a center or trade for a center in the off season. I’m not comfortable going more that 5 mil by 4 years on a FA C given all of the other contracts on the books. Danault is playing his way into that and he might be willing to do a 1 to 2 year deal, which I’d pay a bit more for given the longer term flexibility. There is no reason to take on a longer term deal unless the AAV is right if assets are being given up.

That was rambling but don’t give up assets to take on more that 4 mil with term.
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Feb. 28, 2021 at 6:28 p.m.
#15
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Quoting: TanSor
Even with those two deals expiring we would have to get rid of Rask in a Johansen trade.

He wouldn't really have a choice if we don't offer him a bridge. I guess he could always threaten to go back to Russia but he probably wouldn't make as much money.


Would you really take the chance of pissing off the guy your franchise has been waiting its entire existence to get? MN has him over a barrel somewhat in terms of his short term future. It's a tool to be used, but more in a break glass in case of emergency situation.

I think they'll give his agent several different contract options and his agent will do the same.
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Feb. 28, 2021 at 6:29 p.m.
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Quoting: wabit
I think you give Kaprizov a 6 year deal. It'll still give him a chance at another big payday when he hits UFA at 30, so the AAV should be a little lower than an 8 year deal.


I would bet that bridge deal will be peanuts to incentivize the longer term deal, 6 or 7 year deal at 7-8 mil is probably the best case for both sides but I think we might see the Rantanen deal. Different players but similar impacts.
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Feb. 28, 2021 at 6:37 p.m.
#17
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Quoting: jnowariak
I would bet that bridge deal will be peanuts to incentivize the longer term deal, 6 or 7 year deal at 7-8 mil is probably the best case for both sides but I think we might see the Rantanen deal. Different players but similar impacts.


With the flat cap I think a 1-2 year bridge deal will be a decent offer $5m-ish. A long term deal I see Rantanen type of money, but that kills the cap during the flat cap years.
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Feb. 28, 2021 at 6:40 p.m.
#18
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Under no circumstances can you give him a 3, 4, maybe even 5 year deal. You either give him 6+ or 1-2.

The problem with 2 is it gives him arbitration and offer sheet rights, and he can pretty much force his way into a 1 year arbitration deal bringing him right to UFA.

A 1 year deal has some of the same concerns with offer sheets, but it would be harder to take himself straight to UFA this way. I think this one is pretty likely 1x5-6.5 or similar.

6-8 would be the best for fans and the team, because it eats up his prime years, and he can go to UFA and get another fairly large deal to retire on. The downside with 6-8 is you have to pay him A LOT to eat up those years. His agent is probably going to be using Panarin as a comparable player, so in order to get him to accept, you'd probably have to offer 9, maybe more. That's obviously a risk with whether he actually continues to be worth that much.

So choose your risk, do you want to go short term knowing he could become a UFA or get offer sheeted and you might be paying 10-11+ to keep him, or do you try to get ahead of it and give him a Draisaitl type deal, where you pay him more than he may be worth, but you're betting on him getting better.

Remember Panarin was in a very similar situation. He had a 2 year ELC, he got a 2 year extension, and then signed a massive deal as a UFA. So just because he doesn't have much leverage right now, doesn't mean the Wild are going to get a team friendly deal.
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Feb. 28, 2021 at 6:41 p.m.
#19
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Quoting: wabit
With the flat cap I think a 1-2 year bridge deal will be a decent offer $5m-ish. A long term deal I see Rantanen type of money, but that kills the cap during the flat cap years.


Maybe a different perspective here, but this is the cheapest you will ever sign KK with term. Even if that’s 8.5, you do it. He will be more expensive after a bridge and that will hurt more.
Feb. 28, 2021 at 6:47 p.m.
#20
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Quoting: Caerii
Under no circumstances can you give him a 3, 4, maybe even 5 year deal. You either give him 6+ or 1-2.

The problem with 2 is it gives him arbitration and offer sheet rights, and he can pretty much force his way into a 1 year arbitration deal bringing him right to UFA.

A 1 year deal has some of the same concerns with offer sheets, but it would be harder to take himself straight to UFA this way. I think this one is pretty likely 1x5-6.5 or similar.

6-8 would be the best for fans and the team, because it eats up his prime years, and he can go to UFA and get another fairly large deal to retire on. The downside with 6-8 is you have to pay him A LOT to eat up those years. His agent is probably going to be using Panarin as a comparable player, so in order to get him to accept, you'd probably have to offer 9, maybe more. That's obviously a risk with whether he actually continues to be worth that much.

So choose your risk, do you want to go short term knowing he could become a UFA or get offer sheeted and you might be paying 10-11+ to keep him, or do you try to get ahead of it and give him a Draisaitl type deal, where you pay him more than he may be worth, but you're betting on him getting better.

Remember Panarin was in a very similar situation. He had a 2 year ELC, he got a 2 year extension, and then signed a massive deal as a UFA. So just because he doesn't have much leverage right now, doesn't mean the Wild are going to get a team friendly deal.


He isn't offer sheet eligible and he may not have arb rights.
Feb. 28, 2021 at 6:47 p.m.
#21
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Quoting: OutCold13
He isn't offer sheet eligible and he may not have arb rights.


This summer he doesn't. After a 1-2 year bridge deal, he would. That's why a 1 and especially 2 year deal could be so dangerous for the Wild.
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Feb. 28, 2021 at 6:52 p.m.
#22
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When it comes to KK, he is your franchise player you treat him as such and pay him as such. Gotta make sure he is happy. I mean you talk to him about his options you show how different cap numbers affect him and your ability to sign other players and you make sure you make it known he is expected to retire here, any tough negotiating or hard ball tactics will wreck the relationship.
Feb. 28, 2021 at 6:52 p.m.
#23
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Quoting: Caerii
This summer he doesn't. After a 1-2 year bridge deal, he would. That's why a 1 and especially 2 year deal could be so dangerous for the Wild.


After 2 isn't he a ufa?
Feb. 28, 2021 at 6:54 p.m.
#24
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Quoting: OutCold13
After 2 isn't he a ufa?


His UFA year is 2024. So he's a UFA after 2023-24.
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Feb. 28, 2021 at 6:58 p.m.
#25
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Quoting: OutCold13
After 2 isn't he a ufa?


Yup, his ELC takes into account his professonal experience abroad I believe.
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