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Leafs Looking at Quick per TFP

Created by: tkecanuck341
Team: 2020-21 Toronto Maple Leafs
Initial Creation Date: Mar. 21, 2021
Published: Mar. 21, 2021
Salary Cap Mode: Basic
Description
Betterridge's Law of Headlines likely applies.

https://www.thefourthperiod.com/pagnotta/sunday-best-quick-an-option-for-maple-leafs
Trades
TOR
  1. Clague, Kale
  2. Quick, Jonathan ($2,900,000 retained)
LAK
  1. Andersen, Frederik
  2. Sandin, Rasmus
  3. 2021 2nd round pick (TOR)
Retained Salary Transactions
DraftRound 1Round 2Round 3Round 4Round 5Round 6Round 7
2021
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2022
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2023
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ROSTER SIZESALARY CAPCAP HITOVERAGES TooltipBONUSESCAP SPACE
22$81,500,000$76,724,740$0$507,500$4,775,260
Left WingCentreRight Wing
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$2,250,000$2,250,000
RW, LW
M-NTC
UFA - 1
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$11,640,250$11,640,250
C
UFA - 4
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$10,903,000$10,903,000
RW
UFA - 5
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$1,645,000$1,645,000
LW, RW
UFA - 2
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$11,000,000$11,000,000
C, LW
NMC
UFA - 5
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$6,962,366$6,962,366
RW
UFA - 4
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$1,250,000$1,250,000
RW, LW
UFA - 2
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$3,500,000$3,500,000
LW, C, RW
UFA - 3
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$1,500,000$1,500,000
RW, LW
NTC
UFA - 1
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$700,000$700,000
C, RW
UFA - 1
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$700,000$700,000
C, LW
NMC
UFA - 1
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$700,000$700,000
C, RW
UFA - 1
Left DefenseRight DefenseGoaltender
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$5,625,000$5,625,000
LD
NMC
UFA - 4
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$5,000,000$5,000,000
LD/RD
NMC
UFA - 4
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$5,000,000$5,000,000
LD
M-NTC
UFA - 2
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$2,000,000$2,000,000
RD
M-NTC
UFA - 3
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$1,650,000$1,650,000
G
UFA - 2
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$874,125$874,125
LD/RD
UFA - 1
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$1,000,000$1,000,000
RD
NTC
UFA - 1
Logo of the Los Angeles Kings
$0$0
G
UFA - 3
Logo of the Los Angeles Kings
$761,666$761,666 (Performance Bonus$107,500$108K)
LD/RD
RFA - 1
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$863,333$863,333 (Performance Bonus$400,000$400K)
RD
RFA - 2
Taxi Squad
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$1,050,000$1,050,000 ($0$0$0$0)
LW, C, RW
UFA - 1
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$925,000$925,000 ($0$0$0$0)
RW, LW
UFA - 1
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$821,667$821,667 ($0$0$0$0)
LW, RW
RFA - 4
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$775,000$775,000 ($0$0$0$0)
C, LW, RW
UFA - 1
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$725,000$725,000 ($0$0$0$0)
G
UFA - 2
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$700,000$700,000 ($0$0$0$0)
LD
UFA - 1

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Mar. 21, 2021 at 11:09 p.m.
#26
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Quoting: tkecanuck341
What? Clague played in the NHL earlier this season and looked really good. He was sent back to Ontario because he's waiver exempt and they wanted to give Bjornfot a look. Bjornfot has similarly looked fantastic, so they decided to keep him up because they had more need for a defensively solid guy than an offense first guy. Clague is going to be a solid NHLer and is likely going to be the player that Seattle takes in the expansion draft.


Look it’s really not close. The leafs traded a second for jack Campbell who is better and cheaper than quick at last years deadline. The leafs are not trading their top prospect and a second for quick and clague. Like you just mentioned clague is expansion eligible while sandin is not. You even said he’s likely not good eneough to be protected.
Mar. 21, 2021 at 11:10 p.m.
#27
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Quoting: Byrr
Notice how you still can't talk about how the stats make Quick a negative asset? Got to keep going with your strawman.


Which stats would you like to talk about? The fact that he has a better winning percentage than Cal Petersen?
Mar. 21, 2021 at 11:11 p.m.
#28
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Edited Mar. 21, 2021 at 11:19 p.m.
Quoting: tkecanuck341
Which stats would you like to talk about? The fact that he has a better winning percentage than Cal Petersen?


The fact hes a sub .900 save % and a negative xGSA. He's not a good goalie anymore and is being paid to be a starter despite now having been demoted to a backup. LA is competing despite Quick, not because of him, and its why they'll have to pay to move him.
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Mar. 21, 2021 at 11:16 p.m.
#29
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Quoting: CeciGOAT
Look it’s really not close. The leafs traded a second for jack Campbell who is better and cheaper than quick at last years deadline. The leafs are not trading their top prospect and a second for quick and clague. Like you just mentioned clague is expansion eligible while sandin is not. You even said he’s likely not good eneough to be protected.


I didn't say that he's not good enough to be protected. The Kings have Doughty, Walker, and Roy to protect, all of which are more important to the Kings than Clague right now. if Iafallo doesn't re-sign (he most likely will), then the Kings will probably go 4-4-1 instead of 7-3-1, and Clague would be the extra defenseman that is protected. However, if Iafallo does re-sign, then the Kings have too many forwards to protect and can't afford to protect a 4th defenseman, which would make Clague a no-brainer for Seattle to take.

Stop basing your player comparisons on numbers on a spreadsheet and actually watch a game. Quick has been really good this year. He got shelled a couple times this year (once against Minnesota and another time against Vegas) because the defense decided not to show up those games, but aside from that, he has been fantastic.
Mar. 21, 2021 at 11:16 p.m.
#30
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Quoting: Byrr
The fact hes a sub .900 save % and a negative xGSA. He's not a good goalie anymore and is being paid to be a starter despite now having been demoted to a backup. LA is competing despite Quick, not because of him, and its why they'll have to pay to move him.


Stop basing your player evaluations on spreadsheets and actually watch a hockey game.
Mar. 21, 2021 at 11:18 p.m.
#31
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Quoting: tkecanuck341
Stop basing your player evaluations on spreadsheets and actually watch a hockey game.


So you can't actually argue for why Quick should be a positive asset? I'm not surprised. When you have everyone telling you its a bad trade, even fans who arn't connected to either team, you know you've made a mistake.
Mar. 21, 2021 at 11:21 p.m.
#32
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Quoting: tkecanuck341
I didn't say that he's not good enough to be protected. The Kings have Doughty, Walker, and Roy to protect, all of which are more important to the Kings than Clague right now. if Iafallo doesn't re-sign (he most likely will), then the Kings will probably go 4-4-1 instead of 7-3-1, and Clague would be the extra defenseman that is protected. However, if Iafallo does re-sign, then the Kings have too many forwards to protect and can't afford to protect a 4th defenseman, which would make Clague a no-brainer for Seattle to take.

Stop basing your player comparisons on numbers on a spreadsheet and actually watch a game. Quick has been really good this year. He got shelled a couple times this year (once against Minnesota and another time against Vegas) because the defense decided not to show up those games, but aside from that, he has been fantastic.


Idk what to say but you are delusional. No one agrees with you, regardless of what team they cheer for.

1. The leafs are not trading their top prospect
2. Leafs don’t want clague they can’t protect him from the expansion draft
3. Quick is not much of an upgrade on Andersen. Stop bringing up win percentage it is a terrible stat to judge goalies. Andersen has a better win percentage than quick anyway
4. Quick is worse and more expensive than Campbell who the leafs traded a second round pick for last offseason

This trade is terrible. You can post it again and start a poll every single person will tell you this trade is terrible for the leafs.
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Mar. 21, 2021 at 11:27 p.m.
#33
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Quoting: Byrr
So you can't actually argue for why Quick should be a positive asset? I'm not surprised. When you have everyone telling you its a bad trade, even fans who arn't connected to either team, you know you've made a mistake.


I'm pretty sure I have been arguing why he should be a positive asset this entire time. He's been playing very well this season. Aside from two games which weren't his fault, he has been really good, and he has had even had several spectacular games that he downright stole. He has just as many wins as Cal Petersen (and 4 fewer losses), who is near the top of the NHL in every statistical category and who you would probably rate as a "positive value" goaltender given his spreadsheet stats.

Quick had a couple bad seasons a few years ago, and was playing poorly until around Christmas 2019. Since then, he has had a resurgence and is actually looking like 2012 Jonathan Quick again. Last season from Christmas until the season was canceled, he had a GAA of 2.27 and a SV% of .923. This season, take out the two games (1/28 vs Minnesota and 2/5 against Vegas, in both of which none of the 9 goals against were his fault...watch the highlights) and his stats are actually quite good.

Quick is a quality goaltender who would be a fantastic value for a team at a $2.9M cap hit.
Mar. 21, 2021 at 11:30 p.m.
#34
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Quoting: tkecanuck341
Quick isn't a negative asset, especially at 50% retention. The Kings have no desire to move him and are quite content to keep him as the backup until his contract ends. He has been very good so far this year.

Kings decline any trade that treats him as such.


50% retained Quick isn't a negative asset, but he sure as heck isn't worth Sandin.
Mar. 21, 2021 at 11:30 p.m.
#35
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Pagnotta hasn't gotten anything right in 2 years so I doubt they'd be in for Quick. 2.9 is still a lot for a backup for 3 years.
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Mar. 21, 2021 at 11:30 p.m.
#36
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Quoting: Saskleaf
50% retained Quick isn't a negative asset, but he sure as heck isn't worth Sandin.


Fair enough. I respect that assessment.
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Mar. 21, 2021 at 11:31 p.m.
#37
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Quoting: mondo
Pagnotta hasn't gotten anything right in 2 years so I doubt they'd be in for Quick. 2.9 is still a lot for a backup for 3 years.


I think Pagnotta's argument is that Quick would be the starter, not the backup.
Mar. 21, 2021 at 11:31 p.m.
#38
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Edited Mar. 21, 2021 at 11:36 p.m.
Quoting: tkecanuck341
I'm pretty sure I have been arguing why he should be a positive asset this entire time. He's been playing very well this season.


Except everything tells us otherwise.

Quote:
Quick is a quality goaltender who would be a fantastic value for a team at a $2.9M cap hit.


An old, backup goalie, putting up bad numbers, making 2.9 for the next few years as he ages even further, isnt value, its a negative.
Mar. 21, 2021 at 11:36 p.m.
#39
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Quoting: tkecanuck341
I think Pagnotta's argument is that Quick would be the starter, not the backup.


I'm not sure he's a good starter at this point though.
Mar. 21, 2021 at 11:40 p.m.
#40
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Quoting: Byrr
Except everything tells us otherwise.

An old, backup goalie, putting up bad numbers, making 2.9 for the next few years as he ages even further, isnt value, its a negative. You are in the same situation as SJ is with Dubnyk as someone pointed out earlier.


Except Dubnyk hasn't been winning hockey games? At least half of those 6 wins that Quick has this season were games that the Kings should have lost that he downright stole. Goaltending (by both Petersen and Quick) is the primary reason why the Kings are even remotely close to a playoff spot halfway through the season.

How many games have you actually watched Quick play in the last 15 months? I suspect none.
Mar. 21, 2021 at 11:42 p.m.
#41
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Quoting: Saskleaf
I'm not sure he's a good starter at this point though.


He's been doing well playing behind a shaky Kings' team. Put him behind a good team and he would win a lot of hockey games.
Mar. 21, 2021 at 11:47 p.m.
#42
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Quoting: tkecanuck341
Except Dubnyk hasn't been winning hockey games? At least half of those 6 wins that Quick has this season were games that the Kings should have lost that he downright stole. Goaltending (by both Petersen and Quick) is the primary reason why the Kings are even remotely close to a playoff spot halfway through the season.

How many games have you actually watched Quick play in the last 15 months? I suspect none.


'Don't look at the unbiased source, the stats, use the biased source, how I see the games ... but maybe not these games over here he was bad in, just the other ones.' -the biased Kings fan.
Mar. 21, 2021 at 11:52 p.m.
#43
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Quoting: Byrr
'Don't look at the unbiased source, the numbers, use the biased source, how I see the games.' -the biased Kings fan.


Except this isn't baseball, stop trying to moneyball hockey. Stats are good when you use them to reinforce the eye test, but you can't use them in place of actually watching the games.

Go read any local or national source (TSN, NHL Radio, The Athletic, even NHL.com has some good coverage). All of them are talking about how Quick is having a quality season.
Mar. 21, 2021 at 11:55 p.m.
#44
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Quoting: tkecanuck341
Except this isn't baseball, stop trying to moneyball hockey. Stats are good when you use them to reinforce the eye test, but you can't use them in place of actually watching the games.

Go read any local or national source (TSN, NHL Radio, The Athletic, even NHL.com has some good coverage). All of them are talking about how Quick is having a quality season.


And you also can't rely solely on the eye test. You have to find a balance of the two. Quick has let in a lot of soft goals, been weak in his positioning at times, etc. I have watched the clips and the stats arn't wrong.
Mar. 22, 2021 at 12:00 a.m.
#45
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Quoting: Byrr
And you also can't rely solely on the eye test. You have to find a balance of the two. Quick has let in a lot of soft goals, been weak in his positioning at times, etc. I have watched the clips and the stats arn't wrong.


I'm not relying solely on the eye test. LIke I said, look at his stats from Christmas 2019 until the season cancellation last year, then look at his stats from this season with the two outlier games removed when the goals against were not his fault. Combine that with the eye test, and you can very easily see that Quick is having a resurgence.

I have watched every game, and I can only think of one arguably soft goal that Quick has let in all season. I'd like to see examples of the "lot of soft goals" that you are referring to.
Mar. 22, 2021 at 12:02 a.m.
#46
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Quoting: tkecanuck341
I'm not relying solely on the eye test. LIke I said, look at his stats from Christmas 2019 until the season cancellation last year, then look at his stats from this season with the two outlier games removed when the goals against were not his fault. Combine that with the eye test, and you can very easily see that Quick is having a resurgence.

I have watched every game, and I can only think of one arguably soft goal that Quick has let in all season. I'd like to see examples of the "lot of soft goals" that you are referring to.


So pay attention to Quick, just not Quick outside of these small timeframes or his bad games? Thats not a very strong argument you are making.
Mar. 22, 2021 at 12:04 a.m.
#47
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Quoting: tkecanuck341
He's been doing well playing behind a shaky Kings' team. Put him behind a good team and he would win a lot of hockey games.


He's still been the backup this year, hasn't he? Not saying he isn't good, but he's not good enough to upset the fact he's on a bad contract. Kings should keep him, he's been with the team a long time, and I don't see why they should get rid of him because they price for him will be low.
Mar. 22, 2021 at 12:08 a.m.
#48
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Quoting: Saskleaf
He's still been the backup this year, hasn't he? Not saying he isn't good, but he's not good enough to upset the fact he's on a bad contract. Kings should keep him, he's been with the team a long time, and I don't see why they should get rid of him because they price for him will be low.


No, He and Petersen have been playing in a 1A/1B role this season. Quick was the 1A, but missed 10 days or so with an injury, so Petersen got most of the starts in his absence (all except the one game that Grosenick drew in).

I agree the Kings should keep him. Unless a team comes out with a deal like the one I proposed, I suspect he's not going anywhere before his deal expires. They're certainly not going to move him as a negative value asset. I suspect he'll finish out his contract with LA, unless Seattle decides that they want to take Quick in the expansion draft for some reason.
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Mar. 22, 2021 at 12:14 a.m.
#49
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Quoting: Byrr
So pay attention to Quick, just not Quick outside of these small timeframes or his bad games? Thats not a very strong argument you are making.


Again, I conceded that Quick was playing poorly up until Christmas 2019. Since then, he has been really good. Also, my point was that "his bad games" were not "his bad games" but rather that his defense hung him out to dry in both. So aside from two games that weren't his fault, Quick has been an exceptional starting goaltender for the past 5ish months of hockey he has played.

Here are the highlights from both of those games:



Mar. 22, 2021 at 12:18 a.m.
#50
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Edited Mar. 22, 2021 at 12:25 a.m.
Quoting: tkecanuck341
Again, I conceded that Quick was playing poorly up until Christmas 2019. Since then, he has been really good. Also, my point was that "his bad games" were not "his bad games" but rather that his defense hung him out to dry in both. So aside from two games that weren't his fault, Quick has been an exceptional starting goaltender for the past 5ish months of hockey he has played.

Here are the highlights from both of those games:


So you think teams should pay attention to the past 5 months, totalling around 20 games, rather than pay attention to the previous 4 or so years, hundreds of games, and that will give him positive value?

Lets have a look at those games. In 29 games, he's given up 7.14 more goals than expected and has a cap hit of 5.98 mil for it. Even a 2.9 mil cap hit doesn't make that a strong number. You arn't making your case stronger here.
 
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