Team: 2021-22 Detroit Red Wings

Initial Creation Date: May 29, 2021

Published: May 29, 2021

Salary Cap Mode: Basic

Designed around bringing the team quickly up to contention whilst still keeping long-term cap flexibility.

Buyout Window:
-Buyout Nielsen & Dekeyser.
-This saves $4M in cap for 21/22 and costs $2M in cap for 22/23.
-Both are ineffective and overpaid. Their buyouts are extremely palatable if we're spending close to the cap.

Expansion Draft:
-Protect Larkin, Bertuzzi, Vrana, Fabbri, Namestnikov, Erne, Rasmussen, Hronek, Stecher & Cholowski.
-Left exposed are Svechnikov, Smith, Panik & Lindstrom.
-I've assumed Svechnikov, although it doesn't really matter which player gets taken.

Draft:
-Target one of Beniers, Guenther, Clarke, Hughes or Power at 6/7/8 overall.
-Strongly consider trading back in this draft, loading the pipeline is priority.
-In the event of a lottery win, target Beniers.

EDM Trade:
-Sell high on Adam Erne, getting a depth pick back for a player with team control.
-Edmonton isn't the only option obviously, but they do have a good relationship with DET, and a need for effective depth.
-Trade is made after the expansion draft to maximize value. More suitors for a player that doesn't need to be protected.

RFAs:
-Assumed Bertuzzi going to Arbitration OR signing the QO. One year of RFA eligibility left and didn't get to 'prove it' on his 1 year deal.
-Slightly over-payed the EvolvingWild projections for Vrana, Hronek, Rasmussen, Smith & Cholowski. Obviously signing for less money is ideal. Pretty set on the terms for each.

Pettersson Offer Sheet:
-Oh Baby.
-Vancouver is faced with a nearly impossible decision of matching Pettersson well above market value and having to negotiate buyouts and trades to even ice a team, or taking the picks and cap space.
-Adding a long-term 1C moves up the timetable for DET, and the lost picks make for no reason not to push for difference makers in UFA.
-Worth noting that the lost picks don't completely reduce DETs pipeline. The dozens of prospects they've drafted the last few years (plus all of their 2021 picks) should provide a constant source of high end talent for a few years. Raymond, Berggren, Veleno, Johansson and more are still projected as legitimate NHLers. Seider is an immediate impact NHLer.

UFAs:
-Bring back Bernier on a similar deal to Greiss. No reason to commit to bigger name goaltenders when Bernier wants to stay, and has provided above average goaltending. A Bernier/Greiss duo isn't sexy, but it's certainly good enough to win with a good team.
-Support the relatively mobile RD core with a trio of 1 year, low $ deals. Specifically, effective shutdown defencemen with strong isolated defensive impacts. This gives three stable pairings that can be rolled out for 60 minutes without sheltering.
-Gagner and Nash are signed to similarly cheap deals. Gagner provides an east/west possession driving element, Nash is an effective shutdown centre with strong isolated impacts.

Big Mamma UFAs:
-Poached 2/3rds of MTLs possession line to 3 year deals at above projected value.
-The two together are incredibly effective, but Danault is the priority here.
-Cholowski is getting bullied into giving Tatar his #21 back.

Lines & Deployment:
-While the forwards can be top-loaded if need be, I went with a balance for the top 9.
-Pettersson gets sheltered offensive usage, and is given a couple wingers who fit well with that role.
-Tatar and Danault stay together obviously, Bertuzzi does his best Gallagher impression. This line gets the hardest matchups and hopefully continues it's dominance.
-Larkin gets the best finisher and a possession drivers left, either he or Pettersson feasts on reduced competition.
-Rasmussen - Nash - Namestnikov clog up the neutral zone and focus on playing Jeff Blashill Hockey®
-Plenty of coverage for injuries. Veleno/Raymond/Berggren give skilled options for callups while Smith/Panik are effective enough in an energy role.

-Defensive pairs can be mixed and matched for chemistry. The idea here is essentially to have 3 2nd pairings that can be rolled out in any scenario. Developing Seider is the most important thing here, but none of these players need to be sheltered. Cholowski & Johansson provide more offensive LHD options while Lindstrom is an acceptable RHD callup.


Overview/Conclusion:
-This is obviously not a 'likely' scenario, but I don't think any individual aspect here is completely unrealistic. The successful offer sheet is key to everything here, but aside from that there's a ton of flexibility here.
-Obviously not every UFA will want to sign, but there's plenty of cap to go around, and any UFA signing for 3 years or less won't cause long-term cap issues. If, say, Tatar doesn't want to return, that cap can be put towards someone else, with no 1st round picks there's no reason not to target impact players in UFA.
-While I do think the team built here has the potential to make noise in the playoffs, the real strength here is the long-term cap flexibility mixed with the deep prospect pipeline. This is a team that's built to get better year over year.


Or maybe Vancouver will just match the offer sheet and we can watch Jim Benning ice half an NHL roster.

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