Joined: Jun. 2021
Posts: 198
Likes: 71
CapFriendly doesn’t model LTIR properly, they freely admit that. The cap relief from LTIR is the amount the team is ABOVE the cap when to contract is moved to LTIR. If a team is planning to operate as a cap team, and has other contracts that get them very close to the cap, then the team is able to use LTIR.
Chevy has indicated that their contention window isn’t open now, and ownership is authorizing spending to the cap. That is exactly what they did in 20-21, so actions support the thesis that Winnipeg is currently a cap team.
The benefit of moving Littles contract: they clear it off the books from a cap perspective and the non-insured 20% from a cash outflow perspective. This will enable WPG to spend close to the cap during the off-season, and the accumulate cap space during the season to add a rental later in the season.
The cons: giving up an asset (LTIR eligible contract). There are other teams who could use this contract to get above the cap and maximize their own cap space. If it costs a hockey asset, then there is the disposition cost. Let’s ignore the optics, I think it matters to the team, you don’t so we will never agree on that con.
On balance, the Jets can spend Little’s contract ABOVE the cap and then place him on LTIR. Let’s look at the scenarios with Keith:
1) No salary retention. —> Keith then takes up $5.4M if cap room, which should be enough to sign UFA or acquire a TOP 4, younger D. In this scenario, why would the Jets give up ANY asset, let alone Little’s contract?
2) 50% salary retention. Keith will count 2.7M against the cap. This is probably close to his value, if you weigh experience and leadership highly. What would the Jets give up for that when they can sign a $3M UFA for no asset cost? Chicago is competing against every $3M UFA dman. I’d argue that the Jets wouldn’t give up more than a late round pick.
As for Little’s contract, you’ll notice I didn’t include that in the evaluation of either CHI trade scenario, why not, because the Jets don’t gain anything trading AWAY the Little contract, LTIR is a free move except for 20% of his cash contract. There is zero cap benefit.
The fundamental assumption is the Jets will sign or trade for 2 Dmen. They won’t put themselves in a position to have to wait until February to strengthen their weakness by exceeding the cap through a trade.