I think this is pretty reasonable

Yeah I'd probably do that for Tarasenko, Eberle's really good

Thanks! I feel like each trade on its own seems feasible, but to put all of this together in one (shortened) offseason by Lou would be all-time wizardry.

The standard we hold on here is always higher than what we actually see, but especially considering the average post on here this is well done

I think STL should have to retain a bit or take Komarov. Eberle is better than Tarasenko right now and the isles are taking a huge risk.

I can see the risk from both sides. Who wins this deal will be based on Tarasenko's health - and if Lou gets a clean bill/confidence from our doctors than it's worth pursuing IMO. If the rumors are true and we've already made a call to STL, that tells me Lou sees it as a risk worth taking.

If they don’t take komarov then I don’t think the isles should have to include a 2nd rd pick. I think this trade undervalues Eberle - he had a 1st line impact this season. I can understand wanting to upgrade, but it’s a huge risk even if he’s deemed healthy. He’s only played 34 games in the last 2 years and he has struggled big time. So if the isles are giving up Eberle they shouldn’t have to give up much more than him.

I think this is pretty decent. Not very exciting, but about what I could expect and be satisfied with. Better than the guy that offered Ladd, Bellows and a pick.

In isolation that trade for tarasenko isn't crazy, but all things considered I think you're over paying. Tarasenkos value is at an all time low

Yeah that one was a no-go from the start. I think this is a realistic package for Tarasenko given the flat cap, his uncertain shoulder and the fact he semi-controls the destination with a full NTC. I wouldn't consider it a "L" for St. Louis by any means. But a deal, whether it's with NYI or somewhere else, has to be money-in / money-out.

Points to you, this is really thoroughly thought out and all the deals are reasonable. I'm not sold on the Isles side though.

Trade 1: This seems like a big overvaluing of Leddy. Keep in mind what happened with Vegas: the teams that lost the most from just letting guys get picked were the Preds, Blues, and Capitals. Worked out ok for St.Louis and Washington. There's also a lot of good UFA dmen available this year, Jamie Oleksiak or Jake McCabe could provide an upgrade from Leddy at a fraction of the cost. Which brings me to point 3 here: Leddy isn't actually a good dman. In his heyday he was a very good 2-way blueliner, but Hockeyviz's isolates haven't had him substantially above average since 2014-15, and he hasn't even been average since 17-18. If Seattle's gonna take him that's a win, not something you give up pieces to prevent.

Trade 2: Jordan Eberle is probably a better player than Vladimir Tarasenko at this point in time, and will most likely be in the future barring a catastrophic injury. In Tarasenko's last full(ish) season (18-19), hockeyviz estimates he provided 5% more offence and 5% less defense than a league average player, along with strong shooting impact. In Eberle's last season, he provided 19% more offence and 6% more defense than a league average forward, with slightly below-average finishing. Yes the Isles need shooting talent more than defence, but Eberle's too important to their offence to be the piece they sacrifice, and Tarasenko definitely shouldn't pull a player of that caliber given that there's at least a 1 in 3 chance that he's just completely done and will provide nothing of value after the trade.

Trade 3: Sensible move on paper, but saying "ehh, we have enough depth, we don't need these picks" has gotten many a franchise in trouble. One of the biggest strengths of the Bolts over the years has been their ability to cycle players through their lineup, allowing them to survive excellent players like Jonathan Marchessault getting poached by other teams. Maintaining a good base of pick capital is really important to that, I'd try to avoid paying a first to dump Ladd if at all possible. It might not be, I don't remember exactly how much he costs, but if the Kraken take Leddy it definitely is.

Trade 4: I'd probably keep the pick, for the reasons outlined above. Having lots of picks is always good.

"Trade" 5: Evolving-hockey currently estimates Parise to command 1.45 million on a UFA deal. Might take a discount to work with Lou.

Outside of losing Eberle this grades as a pretty good offseason, but Eberle is a really big loss and in the very feasible event Senko busts the Isles just lost their 2nd best forward for nothing with no real way to replace him. That's not good.

For sure, and the trade of course is going to come down to his medicals. If he's fine? It's a home run for NYI. If the rumors are true and NYI has at least made the preliminary call to STL, that tells me Lou at least is open to the idea. From a cap perspective it's close, but not quite, a wash. So if NYI it's confident on his medicals and can squeeze the extra 10-15 goals from Tarasenko over keeping Eberle the trigger needs to be pulled

I figured it was going to be something like you offered plus Ladd.

Thing is I'm not sold that Tarasenko is gonna lead to more goals as a team than Eberle. At even strength Eberle's produced 10.6 offensive GAR to Tarasenko's 5.8 over the last three seasons, in about 1.5 times as many minutes. Senko's very clearly an upgrade on the powerplay, but Eberle's a much more sure thing, and Hockeyviz's model views him as one of the league's top wingers.

All very fair points. Thanks for the comments. This offseason would definitely be the swing for the fences route. But I do think the Isles need to squeeze out a little more in order to get past the Tampa Bay's of the world. I said it a couple times above, the trade really comes down to Tarasenko's health. If the Isles doctors are confident, I feel like you have to pull the trigger.

As for Leddy, I had him as my Seattle pick most of the year. But I listened to a podcast that had Arthur Staple (Isles top beat guy/The Athletic) and he made points that talked me into keeping Leddy. He can eat 20-22 minutes a night, bring some level of offense, and speed into the lineup. The Isles haven't lost many games due to their defense over the past 3 years. So for my money, I thought Leddy could be the guy worth losing. But I'm not entirely sold on the options we have to replace him, versus someone like Eberle (if we lost him via expansion instead). Wahlstrom steps up. Can re-sign Palmieri with that money. Etc.

I listened to that interview today and the points he made were incredibly stupid. He rambled about Leddy and besides the ice time comment, the rest of it wasn’t accurate. Then he goes on to argue that the Isles should pay to get rid of Eberle and that the isles should include Beauvillier in a deal to acquire Tarasenko. I’m sorry staple is a moron lol

Evolving-hockey's GAR has Leddy as the 91st-best defenseman offensively (does that make sense? He's 91st in OGAR) over the past 3 seasons, just behind Sean Walker, Robert Hagg, and Rasmus Ristolainen. UFA's ahead of him include Mike Reilly (51st), Michael Del Zotto (41st), and Alex Goligoski (29th). All three of those guys are also projected to cost less than 5.5 million per year. This feels like a case of forgetting what the other option is: losing Leddy for nothing would be bad, losing Leddy and signing a replacement is probably gonna add a bit of offense (if that's the priority, it should be) and save some precious cap for the re-sign Casey Cizikas fund.

I’d say at least 50% of the isles fanbase would be ok with giving up picks to get rid of Eberle. It makes no sense.

It happened in Edmonton too. Eberle somehow got a reputation as someone who never went into dangerous areas of the ice despite repeatedly shooting and scoring from those areas.

I feel like he caught a lot of the "I don't want to admit the decision I defended was actually a mistake so I'll blame someone else instead" cognitive dissonance, he's usually been a pretty major component of his teams, but he doesn't have star-level scoring because he isn't much of a finisher, so he became kind of an easy guy to criticize.

The Isles fall short against Tampa because they have 2 superstars (Point, Kucherov) to the Islanders' one, and because their forward corps and defence group are both deeper and more skilled. Folks who's preferred narratives are more grit-oriented blame Eberle instead.

My opinion here is I’m willing to move eberle for picks IF we get better than fair value that keeps the window open if we’re gonna lose him regardless and can sign Palmieri at a lower cap hit to replace nothing against eberle I like him a ton on the second line but I just don’t see a first line impact coming next season and still has a bunch of value I don’t want to lose for nothing

I don't think signing Palmieri for 4-5 years makes sense. Last week I looked up tweets on Isles fans reactions to the Andrew Ladd contract and you'd be surprised how many "great AAV, a bit too much term. Not bad for a top line winger" comments lol.

Yeah that’s my concern too I remember the comments well.. I wouldn’t want him more than 4x4 which I don’t see happening.. hence eberle in a tarasenko trade makes prior to expansion most sense to me

yeah I'd rather trade for tarasenko than re-sign palmieri to a long term deal. That being said, the ideal move would be to trade for Conor Garland.

The models are a bit divided on Eberle, Hockeyviz thinks he's a star, Evolving-hockey's GAR has him 91st among forwards over the past 2 seasons (fringe top-line). I'd say solid top line is a fair assessment for right now. He is 31, so some falloff is definitely in the cards, but I'd say he's likelier to be a top-line caliber player next year than Tarasenko in terms of overall value.





It's worth noting here that Palmieri will probably age pretty well. Even-strength defence ages better than any other skill, and that's what Palmieri is best at. He's due to lose some offense as he enters his 30s, but I'd be really surprised if he isn't worth 4 million dollars at age 34.