Kahkonnen has a 922 svp he gets double that

Not on a 2 year deal. And that assumes he carries that 922, which I don’t believe he will. I see him as a backup, 1B at best. Not to mention he’s gonna be 27 when that contract expires.

27 isn't old for a goalie. Talbot turns 35 this summer. Kahkonen is also just as good as Talbot, who is a career backup/1B at best himself.

This is about what I expect from the wild next season. Maybe trim down fiala’s deal towards 6.75x4, but something like this.

I don’t think Kahn has a big enough sample size to say he’s at Talbot’s level of consistency just yet. But end of the day, I don’t think it’s an unreasonable contract.

I did 7.5 with term because I think he either gets that or goes to arb and the point here is to fit the current team into next year’s cap. I really don’t think he’s gonna take less than 7, especially if it’s less than 5 years.

I mean, what are you looking for? Talbot hasn't been good this season, which is inconsistent with last season where he was good. That's the nature of these guys who aren't really starters. One difference is that Kahkonen is trending up while Talbot is trending down. Kahkonen has definitely been better than Talbot this season. And at 25, he has a lot of runway to improve, whereas Talbot is only going to get worse.

So what does Kahn make as an RFA? That’s the question.

I think he has a case for anywhere from 1.5M to 2.5M. If he were a UFA, there would be no doubt that he would get 2+.

You only have 21 of your potential 23 active players. There's no flexibility if anyone gets hurt. And I think you're light on Kahkonen by 0.5M. This isn't feasible.

Fiala needs to be at 5.5-6M this year if we're keeping everyone.

Fiala needs to be at about 4M if you plan on keeping everyone.

What do you think Sturm will cost? Is he 1.5M+ this contract or is he still sub1M?

Oh Sturm is gone in that scenario. Unless you can somehow get him cheaper than Gaudreau and trade or waive Gaudreau.

Boldy and Rossi have about 1.5M in performance bonuses that they'll both probably hit. You need a 7th D here for about 800k. And Kahkonen, like you said, probably gets at least 500k more. So that's an additional 2.8M more to account for. Fiala couldn't get any more than 4.5M, and you still have to ditch Sturm and Goligoski, to fit this lineup.

I think getting rid of Goligoski, Rask, Bjugstad, is worth it in the long run. I agree that Fiala will most likely not take less than 7 if he's doing a 4-5 year extension. We also are gonna need cap space to resign Boldy so do we want to trade dumba to free up that cap space to sign strum, have enough for fiala, and enough to give kak a fair deal, and to have enough for when we need to resign boldy? I would like to think that we can keep dumba and fiala, but I think in the long term we would have to trade him for cap space. Addison can fill in his role, but the locker room is the only question. Without dumba, would the locker room take a huge hit?

We really need to stop saying Addison and Dumba are interchangeable. Yes, they are both RHD offensive defensemen. But they play very differently.

a little more probably, but definitely not double

In that one of them can score and play defense and the other has an A on his jersey?

One of them can score, plays ok defense, is physical, gritty, is a leader and has an A on his Jersey.

The other can move the puck, score, and run a PP. Has no defensive acumen, as it's literally as bad as when the other player were comparing him to came into the league bad, and is a far ways away from being ready to play in a top 4 role.

If those two things make them the same, then yes... they're interchangeable.

Correct. Addison could very well turn into a Spurg or Goligoski, but he’s got a long way to go. Having Addison on the 3rd pair and PP2 s the ideal place for him next year. I am also still hopeful Dumba could take a team friendly deal when the time comes.

I don't think the numbers back that up. Granted, it's a limited sample size, but (according to NaturalStatTrick) this year Addison is number 1 on the team in xGF%, SCF%, and HDCF%. He's number 2 (behind Spurgeon) in CF%, FF%, and HDGF%. He's looked really good this year. I remember when Dumba came into the league, he looked nowhere near as comfortable as Addison has defensively. Dumba also had to be heavily sheltered (76% offensive zone starts vs Addison's 51%. Dumba was turning over pucks left and right.

Unless you have some numbers to back up your point about having no defensive acumen and being as bad as Dumba when he came into the league, I'm not sure what I'm missing here. I've watched every game and especially in the latest stretch of games he played here, Addison looked pretty ready to me.

Full disclosure, I also believe Addison is ready for NHL full time but playing 3rd pair and PP2. Dumba is a top pair caliber D man and Addison has too small of a sample size to say he’s ready for a consistent top 4 role.

I really appreciate that people are bringing more statistics into things but you still have to take them with a grain of salt. Addison has played roughly 20(?) NHL games and that really is not enough to make broad judgements about a player. Hell, Mason Marchement is ppg in his last 23 games. Is Marchement the next big power forward? No.

What Addison brings to the team this year is an 8th defenseman for a deep playoff run, which means they don’t need to be in that market unless somebody in the top 4 goes down. He will be a regular next year but I highly doubt it’s in a top 4 role.

Stats are nice to have, they back up a lot of what we think is the case but they don't tell the whole story or can be taken out of context if improperly applied. Defensive pairings and line deployment also factor heavily into whether someone is ready to move up or not.

Addison has 18 career NHL games under his belt so far. Only 3 of which have been in a top 4 role. Which was last year next to Brodin, a top 3 defensive defenseman in the league, on the 2nd pairing... at the time. Brodin is able to cover for his mistakes just like he already does for Dumba. Then he played another 3 games in the playoffs next to Cole, on the 3rd pairing.

Do you see where I'm going with this yet?

This year he's played 12 games so far and they've all been on the 3rd pairing with either Kulikov, Merrill, or Benn as his partners. Brodin now serves as our #1 D-man and partners with Dumba on our top pairing. Addison's numbers look better than they actually are because of the fact he's played on the bottom of the lineup against the bottom of other teams lineup too. He doesn't have to face opposing teams top lines there, which he'd have to if we replace him for Dumba. His average TOI is less than 17 minutes. Which isn't good enough.

That's a far cry from what he's used to so far.

Dumba on the other hand didn't get that benefit. He was thrown to the wolves, and over the course of his first 20 games in the NHL he played on the top pairing with Suter facing opposing teams top lines night in night out and played roughly 18-22 minutes a night because of it.

Adjust Addison's numbers for top line deployment and they're going to drop. And when they do, they're going to be in line with Dumba's to start his career too. I really like Addison, and definitely think he'll get there. But I've also watched every game of his and I've payed attention throughout all of it. The same mistakes he's making now are the same ones Dumba made when he came into the league. Addison is excellent at moving the puck forward but his neutral zone game is passable at best and his defensive zone work is sub-par. Again, he can get away with it now because he's on the 3rd pairing whenever he plays so far. But if you move him up into the top 4 he's going to be eaten alive right now.

He's not ready.

Is he ready for the NHL? Absolutely. But only if he's deployed on a 3rd pairing. Is he ready for a top-four role? Absolutely not. One doesn't mean the other.

Exactly.

Apparently we're looking at different numbers. In Dumba's first 13 NHL games, he didn't play more than 15:30 and only averaged 12:27. In his next 58 games, he averaged 15:01. It wasn't until he had more than 150 games in the NHL and was 22 that he averaged more than 16:50 per night over the whole season. It took until game 36 of his career to even touch 18 minutes. He stayed up there for about a dozen games before his ice time dropped back down. You're much more accurately describing Brodin than Dumba in terms of the start of their career being paired with Suter and playing top minutes. Brodin also averaged 21:00 per night in his first 20 games compared to Dumba's 12:34 in his first 20 NHL games.

During the 2013-14 season, Dumba's most common partner was Clayton Stoner. The next year, his most common partners were (in order) Prosser, Scandella, Suter, and Jordan Leopold who he played almost exclusively with on the 3rd pair after Leopold was traded here. Again, not seeing how this was him being thrown to the wolves playing on the top pair every night unless somehow Pross, Stoner, and the 2014-15 versions of Leopold and Scandella are somehow top pairing defensemen. He did get some time with Suter, but it was short lived and not at all how you framed it.

Start out by saying I love a the facts here. The one thing I’ll add to this discussion is that what Dumba did early in his career is moot. We’re talking about what would happen if Dumba leaves this coming year. All of us believe in Addison but he still has some development in the NHL. I really like our defensive depth with him on the third pair and he will absolutely get a shot at top 4 if somebody goes down but we shouldn’t lean on him for that just yet.