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Trade comparables: A real thing or no?

Are "trade comparables" even slightly relevant?
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Feb. 21, 2022 at 10:17 a.m.
#26
What in tarnation
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Quoting: mokumboi
The old fashioned way: By player/situation evaluation on a case by case basis. For instance, I firmly believe that anyone dealing with Vegas right now should force them harder over the barrel they put themselves over. No one should be giving them full value in any trade because of their dire situation.

But I do not agree losing the concept of trade comps would eliminate the use for AGMs. Frankly, the way they get used around here does no service to discussions because of the things you mentioned. Hockey trades are almost never forms to be filled out according to precedent regulations., so discussions would be more fun if they weren't, either. With trade comps such a big part of discussions, both here and with media types, we get the same trade ideas over and over and over. When people just set those crutches aside, we get the interesting, creative stuff to think about.


I like the thought of that

If you have the time or motivation to do it, I challenge you to make a Blues post where you trade everyone from your roster 1-on-1 to some other players in the league. That is actually quite challenging thing to do because a) it requires thinking from both participants point of view and b) there's no use in using trade comparables because you're basically starting from zero.

I made one of those with Dallas couple of weeks ago after a frustrating game...but it took a while.
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Feb. 21, 2022 at 12:18 p.m.
#27
Ban Price trades
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Quoting: justaBoss
I'd like to answer a question with another question - if you don't think trade comparables aren't viable way to evaluate players on, in what way would you do it?


This is something GSVA and other similar "combo" metrics may hope to address and provide real inherent value.

If Player A is worth 5 wins, then a sum package of roster pieces, prospects, and draft picks (or even salary going back) reasonably worth 5 wins should be enough to balance the scales.

The only sticking point is what you'd determine reasonable, and I think that this is where you can add creativity for team needs. Rebuilding clubs are going to prioritize futures. Tweeners will prefer roster pieces and pick volumes. Contenders only have want for pieces that push them over the edge.

Essentially you move closer to the same trade system that the NHL games use by considering precedence and GSVA. Probably as perfect a system as amateurs can achieve.
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Feb. 21, 2022 at 12:53 p.m.
#28
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mokumboi
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Quoting: BeterChiarelli
This is something GSVA and other similar "combo" metrics may hope to address and provide real inherent value.

If Player A is worth 5 wins, then a sum package of roster pieces, prospects, and draft picks (or even salary going back) reasonably worth 5 wins should be enough to balance the scales.

The only sticking point is what you'd determine reasonable, and I think that this is where you can add creativity for team needs. Rebuilding clubs are going to prioritize futures. Tweeners will prefer roster pieces and pick volumes. Contenders only have want for pieces that push them over the edge.

Essentially you move closer to the same trade system that the NHL games use by considering precedence and GSVA. Probably as perfect a system as amateurs can achieve.



Hmm. By GSVA, do you mean Dom's model?
Feb. 21, 2022 at 1:43 p.m.
#29
Ban Price trades
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Quoting: mokumboi
Hmm. By GSVA, do you mean Dom's model?


Yeah. His came to mind because he's also made the correlation between GSVA and draft pick value. Not sure how the EvolveWild boys have equated draft picks to GAR or WAR yet.
Feb. 21, 2022 at 2:40 p.m.
#30
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mokumboi
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Quoting: BeterChiarelli
Yeah. His came to mind because he's also made the correlation between GSVA and draft pick value. Not sure how the EvolveWild boys have equated draft picks to GAR or WAR yet.


Well, Dom's model has some major issues and he does very little to fix them. Not a huge fan.
Feb. 21, 2022 at 6:05 p.m.
#31
Ban Price trades
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Quoting: mokumboi
Well, Dom's model has some major issues and he does very little to fix them. Not a huge fan.


It's the best model out there without question. If you're looking for precision, try carpentry. It's a sport played on ice with a rubber disk. Strange things happen.

I get that there's anti-Athletic sentiments here (which are baffling, I'm more than happy to pay for it) but credit is due where it's due.
Feb. 21, 2022 at 6:07 p.m.
#32
torontos finest
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Quoting: mokumboi
The old fashioned way: By player/situation evaluation on a case by case basis.


This is most likely the most accurate way trades are conducted. At the end of the day, all trades are being conducted based on the value of the assets as per the people exchanging them. There's never been a set formula or procedure for trading, and while comparable trades may be referenced any current circumstances are going to outweigh them.
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Feb. 21, 2022 at 6:27 p.m.
#33
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mokumboi
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Quoting: BeterChiarelli
It's the best model out there without question.

I get that there's anti-Athletic sentiments here (which are baffling, I'm more than happy to pay for it) but credit is due where it's due.


1- Totally disagree on that. And I'm not talking about being exact. There are plenty of things his model gets waaaaaaay wrong.

2- I have no anti-Athletic sentiment whatsoever. I've been a subscriber almost from the start and will remain so. I'm on there everyday, and not just to read about my teams. However, Dom is drunk on his dogma. His model has major blind spots he just won't come off of, and he'd rather troll critics than examine problems with the model.

But hey, to each his own. Some people swear by RAPM, I don't care for that one much, either.
Mar. 4, 2022 at 3:29 p.m.
#34
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Quoting: mokumboi
You kinda furthered my point here. Grazie. squinty smile


not really. do i think every trade you can look at an exact comp... no, too many players differ in points/game played/size/contract etc. lotta variables that go into the equations. that being said i can definitely see different tiers of trades and some are easy or direct comps. 5th/6th dmen rentals getting a 4th and a 7th at the deadline, rental veteran getting a 2nd and a 4th etc. there are 100% deals or trade candidates that do fall into a comp scenario. there are other trades that are outliers to that or more infrequent that dont have exact comps to like the RoR trade to the blues.
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