Leafs already need to move cap out to fit their current roster so targeting Sandin at around 4.2M makes it nearly impossible for TOR to match and still remain under the cap without making significant roster changes (see my Leafs post: https://www.capfriendly.com/armchair-gm/team/3560691)
The teams with enough cap space to offersheet him and the proper pick compensation are: ARZ, BUF, ANA, CHI, DET, OTT, and MIN. Of these teams, only ANA, DET, and arguably ARZ and CHI make sense from an age/position standpoint. I think ANA is the best fit, they have a young core in a similar age group (Zegras, Terry, Comtois, Lundestrom, Jones, McTavish, Drysdale, Zellweger, Perreault, Tracey, Helleson, etc) and although they have enough LD on their roster, Fowler is only the real top 4 D currently so Sandin could fit nicely at 2LD. Mahura and Benoit can rotate in and out as the 3LD and 7th D, while Vaakanainen, Juolevi, and White can be sent down
It's not going to happen because the Ducks are smart enough not to tender an offer sheet for Sandin. Penny pinching clubs don't usually provoke the ones that actually generate money.
Quoting: UpsideDownQue
Like salzy said you dont have the picks for a 1st + 3rd compensation offersheet and ANA can easily fit a contract for under 4.2M for Drysdale if needed. ANA will have enough to offer him market value anyway, its not like they will be up against the cap trying to lowball him
Getting the third back isn't an issue. Offer sheets are rarely used since the price of the player to pry them away isn't worth it over just trading directly for the compensation. Why use 4.2 million in cap on Sandin when you could leverage a package with that pick + a prospect and get him in the 2 million range?
Fair enough, I havent watched enough TOR games to make an opinion like that about him, but based on moneypuck line combos it doesnt look like he was given that much time in a larger role. Maybe in a larger sample size we will see his play translate better?
I believe, as someone on the outside, that is the main hold up. Role and ice time, can the Leafs give that to him. Not money or term
Vaak really hasnt had a sample size where any of those stats are relevant imo
Traded to a completely new system (that is terrible) and coming off an injury as well
Sandin has posted good numbers in a sheltered role on a top 5 team in the league
Im not betting on Sandin to be better than any of the three Ducks long term
He hasnt proven anything, Put him on the Ducks and best case he does what Benoit has, worst case hes a Jacob Larsson
Not sold on him at all
Sample size concerns are very valid, but this is all we have to go off of statistically and based on what im seeing Sandin has by far the best odds to become a top 4 D out of those 4 guys
It's not going to happen because the Ducks are smart enough not to tender an offer sheet for Sandin. Penny pinching clubs don't usually provoke the ones that actually generate money.
Getting the third back isn't an issue. Offer sheets are rarely used since the price of the player to pry them away isn't worth it over just trading directly for the compensation. Why use 4.2 million in cap on Sandin when you could leverage a package with that pick + a prospect and get him in the 2 million range?
Doesnt have to be an offersheet. Trading for him works just as well. But if they do go the offersheet route I dont think TOR could do any meaningful damage by doing a trading-for-their-pick-back-then-revenge-offersheeting-Drysdale maneuver
If TOR offersheets Drysdale for some ridiculous amount they have to be prepared for ANA to call their bluff. Dubas would have trouble fitting a huge OS contract under the cap if ANA takes the picks
Doesnt have to be an offersheet. Trading for him works just as well. But if they do go the offersheet route I dont think TOR could do any meaningful damage by doing a trading-for-their-pick-back-then-revenge-offersheeting-Drysdale maneuver
If TOR offersheets Drysdale for some ridiculous amount they have to be prepared for ANA to call their bluff. Dubas would have trouble fitting a huge OS contract under the cap if ANA takes the picks
4-6 million for a young, RHD is something the Leafs would be glad to gamble on.
4-6 million for a young, RHD is something the Leafs would be glad to gamble on.
So would ANA though, and they can easily match. If the contract is good enough for TOR to gamble on when they are up tight against the cap then it should be good for ANA to gamble on when they have tons of cap flexibility
Is Sandin really even that much of an upgrade over Vaak/Benoit/Mahura?
Im not convinced he is
Surely isnt over Vaak, slight upgrade over Benoit, definite upgrade on Mahura but I dont really see the need to add another "Has top 4 upside but is a bottom pairing guy right now" LD, especially with Zellweger and Mintyukov in the pipeline
Kerfoot has value and it won’t cost them to move him if he is traded
I think the Bjorkstrand trade shows just how much taking on cap costs in the current trade market. A high end top 6 forward in Bjorkstrand on a good value contract only got a 3rd + 4th since CBJ needed to clear cap. With so many teams needing to move money out before the season starts I dont see why anyone would take those contracts for free, especially when there are UFAs who are better than Kerfoot and will probably sign for under 3.5M anyway
Imo hes a significant upgrade over those guys. Vaak isnt even NHL quality, Mahura is meh, and Benoit is good but worse than Sandin and doesnt have anywhere near the same upside.
I don't know man, those lines for Sandin and Benoit look reasonably close to me. Certainly not different enough that I want to pay Sandin an extra 3.5m and give up a high 2nd in a deep draft. Benoit is also a significantly different style of defenseman.
Say what you want about Vaakanainen's stats because I'll give you they are bad. But the kid was thrown to the wolves on the Ducks playing over 19 minutes a night (2nd pair) with a 19-yr old partner. The end result matched what you should expect out of such a pairing. The kid still has plenty of upside.
I don't know man, those lines for Sandin and Benoit look reasonably close to me. Certainly not different enough that I want to pay Sandin an extra 3.5m and give up a high 2nd in a deep draft. Benoit is also a significantly different style of defenseman.
Say what you want about Vaakanainen's stats because I'll give you they are bad. But the kid was thrown to the wolves on the Ducks playing over 19 minutes a night (2nd pair) with a 19-yr old partner. The end result matched what you should expect out of such a pairing. The kid still has plenty of upside.
Hopefully Mahura is in the AHL for depth.
Theres still a significant gap there. Sandin's xG differential/60 RelTM (xGF/60 RelTM - xGA/60 RelTM) is +0.30 while Benoit's is +0.13. Sandin's G differential/60 RelTM (GF/60 RelTM - GA/60 RelTM) is +0.16 while Benoit's is +0.12. For the percentiles it may seem close but the distribution is like a bell curve so as you go to the extremes there is a bigger gap between each percentile. To put that in context converting percentiles to Z scores gives:
Sandin: +2.16 standard deviations above the mean in EV Offensive WAR/60 and +0.36 standard deviations above the mean in EV Defensive WAR/60
Benoit: +1.21 standard deviations above the mean in EV Offensive WAR/60 and +0.10 standard deviations above the mean in EV Defensive WAR/60
Sandin may not be worth 4.2M and a 2nd round pick to you, but hes clearly been the better player so far imo
LOL why would the dubas pay you to take kerfoot when he has positive value and your team just created a big issue for him by offer sheeting sandin, if you guys or any team offer sheeted sandin I don't think that dubas would be in a rush to trade with you guys, especially when you guys want an extremely unfair trade from us
LOL why would the dubas pay you to take kerfoot when he has positive value and your team just created a big issue for him by offer sheeting sandin, if you guys or any team offer sheeted sandin I don't think that dubas would be in a rush to trade with you guys, especially when you guys want an extremely unfair trade from us
Youre probably right Dubas wouldnt want to make a trade with a team offersheeting Sandin, but I dont see why someone would pay for Kerfoot. TOR needs to move cap before the season starts (so do a lot of other teams) and there arent a whole lot of teams who are able and willing to take on cap right now. Especially when there are UFAs like Milano, Rodrigues, Stastny, etc who are better than Kerfoot and who will probably cost less than 3.5M to sign
We all saw how CBJ was forced to move Bjorkstrand for peanuts instead of Nyquist, then how VGK was forced to move Dadonov for an LTIR contract and moved Pacioretty and Coghlan for literally nothing, the trade market isnt friendly to teams needing to clear cap space, even if they are moving good players
LOL why would the dubas pay you to take kerfoot when he has positive value and your team just created a big issue for him by offer sheeting sandin, if you guys or any team offer sheeted sandin I don't think that dubas would be in a rush to trade with you guys, especially when you guys want an extremely unfair trade from us
1: thanks for parroting two pages of discussion, we all already agreed an offer sheet isn't a good idea and opens us up to revenge OS.
2: nope, that's what it'll take to get your 3+ mil in cap space since you have zero leverage to get anything for him to a cap dump team. This is the cost of Dubas cap mismanagement.
1: thanks for parroting two pages of discussion, we all already agreed an offer sheet isn't a good idea and opens us up to revenge OS.
2: nope, that's what it'll take to get your 3+ mil in cap space since you have zero leverage to get anything for him to a cap dump team. This is the cost of Dubas cap mismanagement.
True that we have no leverage as we are over the cap and still need to sign sandin but like I said Kerfoot has positive value so there is no chance that we pay a third to get rid of him even with minimal leverage I can guarantee you that we could at least get a low pick for him and not have to pay to get rid of him
True that we have no leverage as we are over the cap and still need to sign sandin but like I said Kerfoot has positive value so there is no chance that we pay a third to get rid of him even with minimal leverage I can guarantee you that we could at least get a low pick for him and not have to pay to get rid of him
Maybe to a contender that you can convince his success last year wasnt as a result of playing on one of the strongest lines in the NHL.
All the Ducks see is a middle six rental on too rich of a contract for the current market. If he comes to us, he is coming with picks, since you are bidding for the cap space from the dozen other teams out there who want it. The fact that he is a decent or good player doesn't matter to us since we are not playoff bound.
We all saw how CBJ was forced to move Bjorkstrand for peanuts instead of Nyquist, then how VGK was forced to move Dadonov for an LTIR contract and moved Pacioretty and Coghlan for literally nothing, the trade market isnt friendly to teams needed to clear cap space, even if they are moving good players
Valid points but I see no way that we pay to get rid of Kerfoot, all three of those players make more money and only vegas had to pay to get rid of one of the three players you talked about. Kerfoot should be able to get at least a low round pick with the leafs having little leverage. In last resort we could trade him/waive him and we wouldn't have to pay a third to get rid of him like this suggests. Many bottom teams would pounce on that opportunity to get him for low value or nothing and trade him at 50% retained at the deadline for more.
Maybe to a contender that you can convince his success last year wasnt as a result of playing on one of the strongest lines in the NHL.
All the Ducks see is a middle six rental on too rich of a contract for the current market. If he comes to us, he is coming with picks, since you are bidding for the cap space from the dozen other teams out there who want it. The fact that he is a decent or good player doesn't matter to us since we are not playoff bound.
I could be wrong but I'm pretty sure he played at least half of the season on the third line and played some on the second but he saw little to no pp time and still put up 51 points. We would be able to get something for him somewhere even if it is below what his value would be if we didn't have cap problems. Appreciate your thoughts though.
I could be wrong but I'm pretty sure he played at least half of the season on the third line and played some on the second but he saw little to no pp time and still put up 51 points. We would be able to get something for him somewhere even if it is below what his value would be if we didn't have cap problems. Appreciate your thoughts though.
Kerfoot played 85% of his 5v5 ice time with at least one of Matthews, Marner, Tavares, or Nylander (Mostly Tavares and Nylander)
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