Quoting: Dr_Invictus
That's a fair point. I hadn't considered that for California. Canadian teams will support no matter how terrible their teams are....Edmonton for example.
I think for a team to be truly competitive they need to have an above average level of production per skater relative to the individual AAV average per skater at any given time. So for 20 dressed skaters on any given game, that gives you an average of 4.125M per skater with a caphit of 82.5M. With two goalies you would need a combined minimum of .90SV%. For the 18 skaters you would need to be on average 1.24 Goals above replacement (above the league average GAR). That works out to spending 3.33M per GAR for any given skater. So if you have a skater on your bottom 6 D, like Vlasic at 7M per year with a -3.4GAR it produces negative 2.06M per GAR. Basically, it just means that other players need to have higher GAR relative to every dollar you spend on them against the cap. So for San Jose, Timo Meier had the highest GAR (+16) at an AAV of 6M. His GAR only costs San Jose 375K per GAR. It certainly offsets Vlasic, but you can see how much drag it puts on a team having a few bad contracts. I'm using the GAR stats based of an analysis Travis Yost did on what it takes for a team to be a contender. It's a good read. I suppose you could use WAR, as well for the goalies. I just used SV% for simplicity.
https://www.tsn.ca/what-it-takes-to-build-a-contender-1.1840278
I wish this site had a friends list I would add you in a heartbeat.
this has to be one of the best responses and information I've seen on here.
I actually learned quite a bit thanks for the link.
the issue with the sharks right now is not so much Vlasic or Labanc,
it's more the lack of any decent ELC players. Good teams usually have 2-3 ELC players who are 3+ GAR.
in the last 7 years the only quality players on ELC the sharks have had are Meier and Ferraro
and Meier's ELC ended in 18/19 season.
the sharks before 2020 dealt every prospect or good pick for vets to stay in the hunt for a cup.
the 2020 guys are getting close and 21 draft and 22 draft added a lot of talent but they need time as well.
This is why I think 24/25 is a good assessment of when the sharks will rebound! they will have 5+ ELC who are giving legit contributions.
then when their deals are up and they need to be paid, the bloated contracts for guys like Vlasic Labanc Karlsson and Couture will be gone.
Just think if the sharks never traded for Karlsson they could have a guy like Stuzie (probably wouldn't have drafted that high but maybe a Mercer or Holtz)
Norris would still be here and with the extra cap we could have added a better RD and kept Pavelski.