Assuming that Meier deal is at the TDL? and he will get closer to 9 mil a year FYI

I dont really like the trade for the jets. Toffoli would be nice, but a first and Stanley seems like a lot for one year

Winnipeg's first for the next couple years should not be in play for anything less than superstar players.

Debrincat cost less than Meier. That's a steep price.

all looks decently plausible overall though. I always laugh and wonder if before Tkachuk trade, if somebody put him in a trade for Huberdeau, Weegar, Shwindt and a 1st what people would have said on here. haha. Only thing is Coronato will be 925,000 rookie maximum almost guaranteed.

That's why SJ has so many cap issues (and soon to be Calgary).

Debrincat was a straight fleecing. Chicago wanted whatever they could get and needed it fast to get picks this year, sharks have this year and next if Meier doesn’t want to sign long term and can take their time. plus Meier is a bigger power forward and that’s always covered in the NHL.

Calgary will have the same issues in a few years! Kadri and Huberdeau are both going to be anchors as they age! but your in win mode now with Sutter only a few years from retirement and the awesome team you have so I get it. just hope you guys get a cup before it goes bad. if san jose won in 16 no one would care about having to rebuild now!

Very true. I also think that San Jose wasn't expecting a flat cap scenario for 3 years. The current crunch wouldn't be that bad if we were at 92MM. If the cap jumps significantly in 2025-26, Calgary may be ok rebuilding with two aging contracts. Treliving is usually good at signing players he trades for: however, this time his hands were tied. He always overpays for free agents. I assume Kadri will be on LTIR for the last 3 years of his deal. Injuries will pile up quick for him.

rumors are the esgrow account will be cleared by the end of 24 and that means a huge jump in 24/25 so that’s will help both clubs. expect 83.5-84.5 in 23/24 and 88.5/89.5 for 24/25.
i have the same hope for Vlasic TBH. never want to wish a career ending injury but if he developed a chronic back or knee issue that wouldn’t be a bad thing for the sharks.

Yeah, Vlasic is a bad one. The odd thing is that he was never a guy with a high ceiling, so I don't know why they paid a shutdown D that kind of money. Couture and Hertl are overpaid, but at least not completely unproductive. Karlsson has a huge AAV for his age and production. If I am Grier, I would be looking at scorched earth. Trade for futures 2-3 years out and use your own to draft high as possible. There is no way to remain competitive with those contracts on the wrong side of 30. I think the fans would understand and be all in.

problem with San Jose is we have an over saturated market with 7 major sport teams and if you suck and lose fans it’s harder to get them back.
Couture and Karlsson are issues with age and injuries but still productive, Hertl is paid what he is worth but the contract might not end well. Labanc is an issue unless he rebounds this year.
Vlasic in his prime was a premier top line shut down D who also put up 30 points a season and played 24 min a night. they new the end of the deal was bad but he took undervalue contracts for years and they owed him a final payday. but who knew he would fall off to a barely above replacement 3rd pair guy 2 years into his deal?

as for a full rebuild I don’t think that’s really necessary, we have some legit NHL talent with Hertl Meier Barabanov couture up front and Ferraro Karlsson on the back end and Kahkonen and reimer in net.
add an adam Fantilli C in 23 and Matthew Virdillo LD in 24 and combine them with F prospects Eklund Bordeleau Coe Gushin & Robins with D prospects Merkley Laroque Havelid D and add in G prospects Makiniemi Chrona Mann plus the other 5-10 prospects we have with NHL caliber ceilings plus about 20+ mil in cap space and we will be looking much better going into 24/25

That's a fair point. I hadn't considered that for California. Canadian teams will support no matter how terrible their teams are....Edmonton for example.

I think for a team to be truly competitive they need to have an above average level of production per skater relative to the individual AAV average per skater at any given time. So for 20 dressed skaters on any given game, that gives you an average of 4.125M per skater with a caphit of 82.5M. With two goalies you would need a combined minimum of .90SV%. For the 18 skaters you would need to be on average 1.24 Goals above replacement (above the league average GAR). That works out to spending 3.33M per GAR for any given skater. So if you have a skater on your bottom 6 D, like Vlasic at 7M per year with a -3.4GAR it produces negative 2.06M per GAR. Basically, it just means that other players need to have higher GAR relative to every dollar you spend on them against the cap. So for San Jose, Timo Meier had the highest GAR (+16) at an AAV of 6M. His GAR only costs San Jose 375K per GAR. It certainly offsets Vlasic, but you can see how much drag it puts on a team having a few bad contracts. I'm using the GAR stats based of an analysis Travis Yost did on what it takes for a team to be a contender. It's a good read. I suppose you could use WAR, as well for the goalies. I just used SV% for simplicity.

https://www.tsn.ca/what-it-takes-to-build-a-contender-1.1840278

I wish this site had a friends list I would add you in a heartbeat.
this has to be one of the best responses and information I've seen on here.
I actually learned quite a bit thanks for the link.
the issue with the sharks right now is not so much Vlasic or Labanc,
it's more the lack of any decent ELC players. Good teams usually have 2-3 ELC players who are 3+ GAR.
in the last 7 years the only quality players on ELC the sharks have had are Meier and Ferraro
and Meier's ELC ended in 18/19 season.
the sharks before 2020 dealt every prospect or good pick for vets to stay in the hunt for a cup.
the 2020 guys are getting close and 21 draft and 22 draft added a lot of talent but they need time as well.
This is why I think 24/25 is a good assessment of when the sharks will rebound! they will have 5+ ELC who are giving legit contributions.
then when their deals are up and they need to be paid, the bloated contracts for guys like Vlasic Labanc Karlsson and Couture will be gone.
Just think if the sharks never traded for Karlsson they could have a guy like Stuzie (probably wouldn't have drafted that high but maybe a Mercer or Holtz)
Norris would still be here and with the extra cap we could have added a better RD and kept Pavelski.

Thanks! Just procrastination at work lol.

Having those good ELC contracts is key for sure. Tre has done a good job of keeping the AAV of those players low once their ELC ends. Gudreau and Tkachuk were on team friendly deals, Lindholm and Anderson are steals at under 5MAAV. Seems like the issue is extensions at RFA expiry or free agency where other potential suitors drive up the price. It's also why the CBA has a max% any given player can have against the cap. That's why it took Washington so long to win a cup: Ovie was eating up a huge portion of their cap, so it was hard to dress a team with GAR above the league average. Same deal with Edmonton with Mcjesus, Draisatl, and Nurse. If a 10M AAV player puts up 100 points do two 5M AAV players put up less than 50pts each? I think the first two are probably worth their AAV, but Nurse may be overpaid. Toronto is in the same boat with Tavares declining relative to his AAV.

lol were all procrastinating at work being on here.
and again i agree with you.
but hey this season is looks great for Calgary and that Tkachuk trade was unreal! Hub's is as good a player as Tkachuk, and you get t top 4 maybe top line caliber D and a 1st for him is the deals that get a team into the next round of playoffs.
Calgary may be a more balanced and better team than last year with Colorado taking a step back with a few key losses I could easily see a Calgay Oilers western conference finals this year.

Yeah, Tre did well to get a return for Tkachuk given the circumstances. That 2025 conditional 1st is the real winner here. If it gets pushed to 2026, I could see Florida being much worse by then and it yielding a top 10 pick. I still think they need an upgrade on RW, but they may very well wait for Coronato to be ready (unless he pulls a Gudreau/Adam Fox move and doesn't tell them he isn't signing until the last minute). I will hand it to Tkachuk for telling them and then agreeing to do a sign and trade. It's the classy way to do it. Hopefully Meier tells you guys if he is going to sign. I'd love to get him in Calgary but I know it would require Cornato. Not sure I could handle that.

yea Meier would be Cornato a 1st and another pick for sure. not sure you'll have the cap to do another 8-9 mil a year guy either.