I disagree with a good chance. Decent rookie years are not always an indicator of a player's career path, especially among forwards. It's why I had this idea. Hoglander might return to being a top 6 potential, but right now I'd argue it's 50/50. You argue Hoglander's contract makes up the value for Bear's position, okay. Now, what about the fact Bear outproduced him in fewer games and without powerplay time? You make the case that 7.6% (which is what Hoglander was shooting at) is incredibly low. In reality, his 11% as a rookie is really high. That's not to say anything about his value, but 11% is comparable to guys like Kyle Connor and Alex Ovechkin.

Dermott is far worse than Bear and Hoglander is far worse than Wahlstrom. Bear outproduced him and plays a more valuable position. You argue age, it's not decades. It's 4 years and D men are notorious for taking longer to develop. That's why this value is so close here for me. I'd argue because it's 4 years in age difference and not 2 it favors Carolina a little, but given Vancouver's need for a RD, I don't think it's astronomical.

I'd live with a 3rd, but you can read the comments about Hoglander already

Pretty much all you are proving is that Hoglander had a bad year, teams would try to buy low in him if he were to be shopped but that doesn't mean Allvin would sell low. That being said Bear does not have a whole ton of value himself, Car doesn't even think he's worth paying 2.2m. He plays an important position but he's not established as a reliable defender.

I know Necas is drafted as a center but he plays wing. I'm sure you wouldn't think Holl+2nd is enough for Necas. Based off PPG rate Necas out produced Holl by about 12 points last season.

You are right that something like this could happen but it would be a bigger mistake by Allvin than Waddell taking Dickinson+ a 5th for Bear.

Cool story

If you even give Hoglander 2% more on his shooting % he get's up to around 21 points not great but still not horrible in a full 82 game season he'd finish with just under 30 points again. I am not sure how bear outproduced him when Hoglander had more points this year and a better PPG, Just last year Bear had 8 points in 43 games played which is way worse then Hoglander's worst year, There is just no reason for Vancouver to make this deal. Bear won't put Vancouver the edge we have more then enough bottom paring guys we need a real top 4 RHD and that would be the only way to get our attention on Hoglander

Dickinson was outproduced by Hoglander. Hoglander was outproduced by Bear. That's not comparable. Necas has also been in the league for 3 years, so we know that last year was the anomaly. Necas is also likely to play center this year because he is a natural center. A better comparison would have been Warren Foegele, who had a great start to his NHL career and then he didn't. That's what this looks like. I obviously hope I'm wrong, but Hoglander looks less and less like anything special here.

You talk PPG pace, Bear outproduced Hoglander in 2 fewer games. Both were dealing with injury, Bear had long term covid symptoms. But Hoglander's shooting percentage was also incredibly high in his rookie year. I'm not saying that it means he's bad, but I'm saying it's far more likely the rookie year is the anomoly.

If Carolina didn't think Bear was worth 2.2, they wouldn't have paid him 2.2. They signed that deal, not an arbitrator. They settled. They obviously think he's worth it. He started last year on Carolina's top pairing. I honestly would love to see him stay, but this is the bare minimum a smart front office like Carolina are going to ask for.

Oh, and a cap dump and a 5th for a RD is a far bigger mistake than an almost 22 year old 3rd line winger for a 26 year old 3RD that outproduced the winger. Stop it. Arguing this part is delusion. Not the other stuff, Dickinson + 5th for bear is a bigger mistake than Hoglander for Bear is for Allvin.

i always fan those threads funny. basicly you propose a trade and end up defending in the comment how bas hoglander is and how good bear is. so why make the trades is that what you think? but to give more my thoughts how the trade : it doesnt matter how much you argue if bear is better than hoglander, hoglander is a prospect, he's not expected to be that good yet. they see more potential in him that what bear currently is, and thats why dont wouldcnot do this trade.

Bear to Vancouver is the new JT Miller trade. I remember the good ole days…

Did everyone know that Bear had a fractured ankle last year? I didn’t even know he was a right handed defenseman.

He is 21 with several years of NHL experience.

Do you think you get much more then a third for bear?

Hoglander is worth a first. Go look at his draft class. He’s easily a first rounder in a redraft. He’s top 10 in GP

Hoglander is worth way more then a f***ing third.

You think the 21 year old that’s currently a 3rd line winger can’t become a 2nd liner? That’s ridiculous. If he’s so bad don’t trade for him

Weak draft classes don't mean that a players value is elevated. Hoglander had 18 points last year in 60 games. If you're arguing he's worth a 1st, is Bear worth an early 2nd? He's top 45 from the 2015 class in games played? You can't argue that both ways. Your logic is deeply flawed. Yes, this might be dumb because Vancouver would be selling low, but to say their value is different right now is just not true. You're lookign at this through tinted glasses

Canes could use the 3rd line depth, and Vancouver want Bear. There's nothing else realistic in value that would be worth Bear. Hoglander might be worth more than a 3rd, but not much. As I said in the description, this likely favors Carolina a little, but they're not worlds apart. Hoglander is young, but he's a full time NHLer now.

Hoglander is a full time NHLer, but he's also struggled which hurts his value. The only reason I'm doing this is that Vancouver apparently wants Bear. I'm more than happy to keep him, but this is the bare minimum I'd want for him and I don't think it's that far off. It's not saying Hoglander sucks or Bear is the second coming of Cale Makar. It's just defending the logic and reasoning

He's not even the best defensive Defenceman on his team. Pesce is the most overrated defenceman in the game. He's a good 2nd pair defenceman with limited offensive ability. He's a good player but not special.

Saying a guy who’s top 5 in GP in his draft class is worth a pick that’s likely from 20+ is the same as saying a guy who’s 45th in games played is worth a pick between 30-40? And I’m the one with tinted glasses.

People forget how young Hoglander is because of his 2nd year. Do you think you’d get Pelletier? How about Turcotte? You think you get Turcotte? You think you’d get Nick Robertson?How about Broberg?

Those players are all the same age as Hoglander and all of them are more unproven. You made an unrealistic trade. It happens. Move on

Difference is all the rest of those players are of a better ilk than Hoglander. Bear is the same age as Aho, McDavid, Eichel. Does that mean he's worth their value? Your logic is so flawed. Hoglander is good, but he's struggled when he's not played the same 6 teams over and over. Right now his value is really hurting. Yes, he likely has a little more value than bear, but not a lot. Stop it. You clearly have tinted glasses on yes.

The reason I used the players I did was because Hoglander has played way more then them.

You are actively ignoring facts. Notice how not only Canucks fans but everyone seeing this is telling you how awful it. It’s not me being bias. It’s you being bias

i hear you, but still, age matters. lafraniere is a full time nhl but has not done anything special. but you can get the potential he has is valued highly vause of his young age. its just doesnt make sense to trade hoglander for bear right now.

Kirby Dach and his career high 26 points basically fetched a first round pick

That was a whole day of dumb, plus Dach was a 3rd overall pick. When they're that young, draft position does matter, as much as it shouldn;/t

Lafreniere was also supposed to be a generational talent. His upside is still HHOF caliber. As much as draft position shouldn't matter, it's unlikely a 2nd rounder hits the same heights. I'm not saying it makes sense to trade Hoglander for Bear for Vancouver, but my argument is right now their value is far closer than people are trying to make out

Don’t even bother. I pointed to a list of players the exact same age as Hog with way less experience and pointed out that Bear would get 0 of those guys and he responded with “Bear is the same age as McDavid, he’s not worth the same” he’s purposely ignoring arguments

If you want a third liner trade for Tanner Pearson. You want Nils Hoglander? Give up something worth Hoglander

Pearson is a 4th liner. Hoglander is the 3rd liner. Averaged 3rd line TOI, didn't even put up 3rd line production numbers. Stop it