Quoting: GMBL
Hoglander and Foegele are two different types of players, if Hoglander is still producing like Foegele is now by age 26, he's going to be out of the League. I don't know many teams who want a 5'9 offensive forward who can't produce much as a depth piece. You're ignoring Hoglander's potential which is based off his skill and talent rather than having a great first year.
Necas for Holl+ isn't a perfect example since Necas is a C, and Holl is 30 but the point is that you don't think Holl is going to carry a whole ton of value in your eyes, so even Holl+ a 1st for Necas isn't something you would accept probably. Holl is far more established than Bear. Yes, defensemen take longer to develop but you are acting like Bear is established just because he outproduced Hoglander. He's going to be on his 3rd team by age 24 if he gets traded, and he was on his ELC the first time and only 2.2m now, so that tells you he's getting traded because he's expendable. If he was a young reliable 6th D-man with top 4 potential, he's not going to be traded that often. He might have top 4 potential but he's not reliable, he has taken great strides last year but he's still developing just like Hoglander. Hoglander isn't the first to have a sophomore slump and he probably won't be the last, selling low on him would be a great error. Trading Hall for Larsson was and Larsson was and is a solid defender still, Hall has since fallen off so that trade would probably be more even now, but Bear isn't there.
As for Bear's contract, he was allowed to shop himself well before he signed that contract and before Burns was added, and there was no excess D. You know very well how Waddell operates, so it's pretty obvious that they didn't think he was worth his ask, and just because they settled with him, doesn't mean they think he was worth it. Most cases that get filed get settled before arbitration. That's not to say that Bear isn't worth 2.2m (to other teams), my point is that Bear's value to CAR is less than Hoglander's to VAN as one guy is considered expendable, and the other a highly touted prospect (or at least was). Even if Hoglander has fallen out of favor in VAN, they would be better off packaging him off for a better D-man than Bear.
Might have missed a few things, but this is my 3rd time writing a reply, what I wrote the first two times was lost.
I'm going to go backwards here.
Burns addition was to replace DeAngelo, not Bear. They're irrelevant. The acquisition to replace Bear was Coghlan because Waddell decided to rob Vegas.
Bear at 2.2 isn't bad. I'd be more than happy with keeping him. However, the rumor is that Allvin wants him to fill in some of the holes that have opened up on the Vancouver roster, which makes sense. This may not make sense from a financial standpoint because of the cap hit. That's a fair statement.
You site Hoglanders potential. He's got potential. 100%, he looked promising coming in. But that doesn't atone for the poor showing this last year. You mention Hoglanders age, you ignore Bear playing a more valuable position. Whether you want to admit it or not, Bear is an established NHLer at this point, he's 10 games short of being NHL pension eligible. That's an established player at this level. Hoglander is an established NHLer. He's proven he belongs in the league. The difference is that Bear has proven he can play top 4 minutes if he has to (he did it in Edmonton) and even top pairing minutes (played next to Slavin). Hoglander hasn't proven he can play top line minutes. That's not his fault per se, but it is still an unknown.
You site Bear being on his 3rd team. That matters why? Bear is one of the most beloved guys in the sport. Only reason he was dealt from Edmonton was to address a position of need. Only reason he would be dealt from Carolina is for a package the Canes can't turn down. There's no evidence to say there's any issue with him fitting in, and he is one of the nicest people in the sport. Completely irrelevant to this discussion, but still worth talking about, there was a story about him buying equipment for kids that couldn't afford it after his trade just because he could. That's Ethan Bear. Don't get that wrong, absolutely fantastic human being.
You site Hoglander having a sophomore slump. However, given the unique circumstances of his rookie year and it being in the all-Canadian division, combined with his unnaturally high shooting percentage, it's difficult to say that the sophomore year was the odd year here. It might be. I hope it is. But I can't say this with overwhelming certainty, which is why I'd argue his value isn't as high as you're making it out to be.
The difference between this and Larsson for Hall is that Hall was an established top line winger with a fantastic scoring record. Hoglander doesn't have that.
Foegele isn't going to be out of the league either. He's overpaid now but his speed alone will make him almost the new Mikhail Grabovski. Everyone will take the chance on a cheap deal. He can kill penalties, he's f**king rapid, and he's a good bottom-six guy. Plus he has a history of showing up in the playoffs. Someone will take that chance