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Trade Deadline Shakeup - Trading Chabot Before Anyone Notices His Decline

Created by: budgeteam
Published: Oct. 18, 2022 at 3:01 p.m.
Salary Cap: $82,500,000
Season Days: 42/185 (23%)
Central Registry Determination: This trade has met the central registry's trade checklist

Logo of the New York IslandersNew York Islanders

OutStatusRetained SalaryEffective Cap HitRosterSPCReserve ListDraft Rd 1Rd 2-3Rd 4-7GPGAPGAASv%
Bailey, JoshNew York IslandersNHL-$1,135,135011---2000--
Dobson, NoahNew York IslandersNHL-$908,108011---2202--
2023 1st round pick (Logo of the New York IslandersNYI)---100------
InStatusRetained SalaryEffective Cap HitRosterSPCReserve ListDraft Rd 1Rd 2-3Rd 4-7GPGAPGAASv%
Chabot, ThomasOttawa SenatorsNHL-$1,816,216011---2011--
Zaitsev, NikitaOttawa SenatorsNHL-$1,021,622011---1000--
ChangeCap SpaceRosterSPCReserve ListDraft Rd 1Rd 2-3Rd 4-7GPGAPGAASv%
Initial$1,935,0372347623612
Change-$794,595000-100
Final$1,140,442 (↓)2347622 (↓)612-21-1

Logo of the Ottawa SenatorsOttawa Senators

OutStatusRetained SalaryEffective Cap HitRosterSPCReserve ListDraft Rd 1Rd 2-3Rd 4-7GPGAPGAASv%
Chabot, ThomasOttawa SenatorsNHL-$1,816,216011---2011--
Zaitsev, NikitaOttawa SenatorsNHL-$1,021,622011---1000--
InStatusRetained SalaryEffective Cap HitRosterSPCReserve ListDraft Rd 1Rd 2-3Rd 4-7GPGAPGAASv%
Bailey, JoshNew York IslandersNHL-$1,135,135011---2000--
Dobson, NoahNew York IslandersNHL-$908,108011---2202--
2023 1st round pick (Logo of the New York IslandersNYI)---100------
ChangeCap SpaceRosterSPCReserve ListDraft Rd 1Rd 2-3Rd 4-7GPGAPGAASv%
Initial$4,118,4522346683513
Change$794,595000100
Final$4,913,047 (↑)2346684 (↑)5132-11
Is Scott Mayfield Better Than Thomas Chabot?
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Oct. 18, 2022 at 3:09 p.m.
#1
couldnt afford 2nd t
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This trade would take place at the 2023 trade deadline. Let's assume the Islanders are gunning for a playoff spot, and the Senators have had a disappointing season.

The Senators benefit from shaking up their core after they did not deliver on their promise of playing important hockey late in the season. Not only that, I would speculate that if the Senators have a failure of a season, Chabot might want out anyways. He has been on a basement or rebuilding team for his entire career, which will be 6 NHL seasons at the time of this trade.

Throughout the cap era, we have seen similarly structured trades, with the young more established D traded for the younger, high ceiling, but less established D. Usually the team with the less established D kicks in an asset. Not only that, despite being older, Chabot has more years of team control than Dobson.

The deal is Dobson and a protected 2023 1st (Presumed to be a playoff pick) for Chabot.

The Zaitsev for Bailey swap is supplemental. Both players have negative value. Lou Lamoriello signed the Zaitsev contract, so it is only fair that it becomes his problem. DJ Smith has ties to Bailey, and like most coaches, he loves when Dorion acquires players he had on his junior team a decade ago. It's just like that Bruce Springsteen song, 'Glory Days'. The swap is not essential to the trade, and the trade could be made without it.
Oct. 18, 2022 at 3:27 p.m.
#2
1GarthSnowFan
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Quoting: budgeteam
This trade would take place at the 2023 trade deadline. Let's assume the Islanders are gunning for a playoff spot, and the Senators have had a disappointing season.

The Senators benefit from shaking up their core after they did not deliver on their promise of playing important hockey late in the season. Not only that, I would speculate that if the Senators have a failure of a season, Chabot might want out anyways. He has been on a basement or rebuilding team for his entire career, which will be 6 NHL seasons at the time of this trade.

Throughout the cap era, we have seen similarly structured trades, with the young more established D traded for the younger, high ceiling, but less established D. Usually the team with the less established D kicks in an asset. Not only that, despite being older, Chabot has more years of team control than Dobson.

The deal is Dobson and a protected 2023 1st (Presumed to be a playoff pick) for Chabot.

The Zaitsev for Bailey swap is supplemental. Both players have negative value. Lou Lamoriello signed the Zaitsev contract, so it is only fair that it becomes his problem. DJ Smith has ties to Bailey, and like most coaches, he loves when Dorion acquires players he had on his junior team a decade ago. It's just like that Bruce Springsteen song, 'Glory Days'. The swap is not essential to the trade, and the trade could be made without it.


Dobson > Chabot. What a joke of an offer.
Oct. 18, 2022 at 3:39 p.m.
#3
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couldnt afford 2nd t
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Quoting: Isles5513
Dobson > Chabot. What a joke of an offer.


I would be surprised if it is seen that way in the NHL among executives. Chabot has been a top pairing defender for years, and one of the lone bright points on a bad Ottawa team. Maybe a year or two from now. Dobson has not surpassed him yet, but it is a possibility.

The title is slightly facetious, because he has had a bad few games to start the season. I suspect that the Senators may have to trade Chabot this off season if they fail to deliver on their goal of making this season matter down the stretch. I don't think he will want to stick around on a team that fails to reach the next level.

Chabot has the better resume, is not much older, and has more team control. Dobson is cheaper for the next two years after this season, but there is risk that Dobson could walk to free agency through arbitration. He also will likely cost as much or more than Chabot on his next contract, even if he doesn't surpass him, because the salary cap is set to escalate. If Chabot was an arb eligible RFA today, he would get 9-10 million. Ala Werenski, Nurse, Jones, etc.
Oct. 18, 2022 at 3:40 p.m.
#4
1GarthSnowFan
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Quoting: budgeteam
I would be surprised if it is seen that way in the NHL among executives. Chabot has been a top pairing defender for years, and one of the lone bright points on a bad Ottawa team. Maybe a year or two from now. Dobson has not surpassed him yet, but it is a possibility.

The title is slightly facetious, because he has had a bad few games to start the season.

Chabot has the better resume, is not much older, and has more team control. Dobson is cheaper for the next two years after this season, but there is risk that Dobson could walk to free agency through arbitration. He also will likely cost as much or more than Chabot on his next contract, even if he doesn't surpass him, because the salary cap is set to escalate. If Chabot was an arb eligible RFA today, he would get 9-10 million. Ala Werenski, Nurse, Jones, etc.


All 3 guys u listed r worse than Pelech
Oct. 18, 2022 at 3:40 p.m.
#5
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Quoting: budgeteam
I would be surprised if it is seen that way in the NHL among executives. Chabot has been a top pairing defender for years, and one of the lone bright points on a bad Ottawa team. Maybe a year or two from now. Dobson has not surpassed him yet, but it is a possibility.

The title is slightly facetious, because he has had a bad few games to start the season.

Chabot has the better resume, is not much older, and has more team control. Dobson is cheaper for the next two years after this season, but there is risk that Dobson could walk to free agency through arbitration. He also will likely cost as much or more than Chabot on his next contract, even if he doesn't surpass him, because the salary cap is set to escalate. If Chabot was an arb eligible RFA today, he would get 9-10 million. Ala Werenski, Nurse, Jones, etc.


Chabot doesn’t really have a better resume…. Garbage trade proposal.
Oct. 18, 2022 at 3:41 p.m.
#6
1GarthSnowFan
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Quoting: budgeteam
I would be surprised if it is seen that way in the NHL among executives. Chabot has been a top pairing defender for years, and one of the lone bright points on a bad Ottawa team. Maybe a year or two from now. Dobson has not surpassed him yet, but it is a possibility.

The title is slightly facetious, because he has had a bad few games to start the season. I suspect that the Senators may have to trade Chabot this off season if they fail to deliver on their goal of making this season matter down the stretch. I don't think he will want to stick around on a team that fails to reach the next level.

Chabot has the better resume, is not much older, and has more team control. Dobson is cheaper for the next two years after this season, but there is risk that Dobson could walk to free agency through arbitration. He also will likely cost as much or more than Chabot on his next contract, even if he doesn't surpass him, because the salary cap is set to escalate. If Chabot was an arb eligible RFA today, he would get 9-10 million. Ala Werenski, Nurse, Jones, etc.


Do ur research on teams needs in the future btw. And you should probably pay more attention to ur biases.
Oct. 18, 2022 at 3:42 p.m.
#7
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couldnt afford 2nd t
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Quoting: Isles5513
Chabot doesn’t really have a better resume…. Garbage trade proposal.


Do you think the 3 guys I listed are better than Scott Mayfield?

I am just trying to gauge the level of homerism needed in this discussion.

If it helps, I really like Mark Borowiecki and Cory Conacher.
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Oct. 18, 2022 at 3:43 p.m.
#8
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couldnt afford 2nd t
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Quoting: Isles5513
Do ur research on teams needs in the future btw. And you should probably pay more attention to ur biases.


What are the Islanders team needs?

Do you have a suggestion on any books or literature that can provide me some tools to manage the biases that might be evident in my decision making?
Oct. 18, 2022 at 3:44 p.m.
#9
1GarthSnowFan
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Quoting: budgeteam
Do you think the 3 guys I listed are better than Scott Mayfield?

I am just trying to gauge the level of homerism needed in this discussion.

If it helps, I really like Mark Borowiecki and Cory Conacher.


Ofc they aren’t better than Mayfield lmao
Oct. 18, 2022 at 3:45 p.m.
#10
1GarthSnowFan
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Quoting: budgeteam
What are the Islanders team needs?

Do you have a suggestion on any books or literature that can provide me some tools to manage the biases that might be evident in my decision making?


Use your eyes when you watch hockey, and you will see what I mean about Dobson V Chabot
Oct. 18, 2022 at 3:45 p.m.
#11
1GarthSnowFan
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Quoting: budgeteam
What are the Islanders team needs?

Do you have a suggestion on any books or literature that can provide me some tools to manage the biases that might be evident in my decision making?


Top line winger. Top six d r set. I seriously doubt they break up that unit.
Oct. 18, 2022 at 3:45 p.m.
#12
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Quoting: budgeteam
I would be surprised if it is seen that way in the NHL among executives. Chabot has been a top pairing defender for years, and one of the lone bright points on a bad Ottawa team. Maybe a year or two from now. Dobson has not surpassed him yet, but it is a possibility.

The title is slightly facetious, because he has had a bad few games to start the season.

Chabot has the better resume, is not much older, and has more team control. Dobson is cheaper for the next two years after this season, but there is risk that Dobson could walk to free agency through arbitration. He also will likely cost as much or more than Chabot on his next contract, even if he doesn't surpass him, because the salary cap is set to escalate. If Chabot was an arb eligible RFA today, he would get 9-10 million. Ala Werenski, Nurse, Jones, etc.


Dobson was better than Chabot last season and young top pair RHD are arguably the hardest position to find. They are rarely available in trades and lottery teams go into every draft praying to find a top pair RHD.

The isles would never make this trade, it makes them significantly worse now and in the future, the isles are giving up a 1st in a deep draft AND have to take Zaitsev. This is one of the most unrealistic trades I’ve seen on this site.

The risk that Dobson walks to UFA is extremely low, it’s not even worth bringing up.
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Oct. 18, 2022 at 3:47 p.m.
#13
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couldnt afford 2nd t
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Quoting: Isles5513
Ofc they aren’t better than Mayfield lmao


You don't have to answer this, but what did Thomas Chabot ever do to you?

It must have been really bad. So if you cannot put it in writing due to signing an NDA or fear of legal ramifications, just write the sentence 'I enjoy chicken sandwiches', and I'll know Thomas Chabot ran over your dog back in junior.

I always knew something was off about him. What a jerk.
Oct. 18, 2022 at 3:47 p.m.
#14
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Quoting: budgeteam
What are the Islanders team needs?

Do you have a suggestion on any books or literature that can provide me some tools to manage the biases that might be evident in my decision making?


The isles one need is a young top 6 winger with above average skating ability. Dobson is the most untouchable player on the isles.
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Oct. 18, 2022 at 3:49 p.m.
#15
1GarthSnowFan
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Quoting: budgeteam
You don't have to answer this, but what did Thomas Chabot ever do to you?

It must have been really bad. So if you cannot put it in writing due to signing an NDA or fear of legal ramifications, just write the sentence 'I enjoy chicken sandwiches', and I'll know Thomas Chabot ran over your dog back in junior.

I always knew something was off about him. What a jerk.


Chabot was less productive than Dobson last year, he’s older than Dobson and he’s a lefty. It’s not that complicated bro.
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Oct. 18, 2022 at 3:53 p.m.
#16
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Quoting: Db1899
The isles one need is a young top 6 winger with above average skating ability. Dobson is the most untouchable player on the isles.


Really if the isles had Connor Garland then they would be cup contenders.
Oct. 18, 2022 at 3:53 p.m.
#17
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couldnt afford 2nd t
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Quoting: Isles5513
Chabot was less productive than Dobson last year, he’s older than Dobson and he’s a lefty. It’s not that complicated bro.


Chabot was more productive than Dobson. He just played less games.

Left, you are right.

Age, is nearly irrelevant. There is a 3 year difference in age. Defenseman have longer primes. Because the Sens stink, Chabot doesn't have though playoff minutes on his body yet. I would argue since their age will never be a factor during the lifetime of their contracts, team control is more important. Chabot is team controlled for longer than Dobson.

Since you touted the eye test so strongly, can you give me three specific things Dobson does better than Chabot on the ice? I would like to learn.
Oct. 18, 2022 at 3:59 p.m.
#18
1GarthSnowFan
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Quoting: budgeteam
Chabot was more productive than Dobson. He just played less games.

Left, you are right.

Age, is nearly irrelevant. There is a 3 year difference in age. Defenseman have longer primes. Because the Sens stink, Chabot doesn't have though playoff minutes on his body yet. I would argue since their age will never be a factor during the lifetime of their contracts, team control is more important. Chabot is team controlled for longer than Dobson.

Since you touted the eye test so strongly, can you give me three specific things Dobson does better than Chabot on the ice? I would like to learn.


Dobson wasn’t very productive during his first 13 games. He broke out after Pulock got hurt. Look at his numbers after that point and u will c what I mean.
Oct. 18, 2022 at 4:02 p.m.
#19
1GarthSnowFan
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Quoting: budgeteam
Chabot was more productive than Dobson. He just played less games.

Left, you are right.

Age, is nearly irrelevant. There is a 3 year difference in age. Defenseman have longer primes. Because the Sens stink, Chabot doesn't have though playoff minutes on his body yet. I would argue since their age will never be a factor during the lifetime of their contracts, team control is more important. Chabot is team controlled for longer than Dobson.

Since you touted the eye test so strongly, can you give me three specific things Dobson does better than Chabot on the ice? I would like to learn.


Noah is bigger and probably faster than Chabot. He’s got an elite shot, and he creates a ton of offense on a team with lackluster wings. And his defensive game has come around nicely so far.

Wouldn’t want to swap him for someone who is 3 years older, injury prone, plays crazy minutes in the regular season, is a lefty and just had a way worse season last year.
Oct. 18, 2022 at 4:05 p.m.
#20
1GarthSnowFan
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Quoting: budgeteam
I would be surprised if it is seen that way in the NHL among executives. Chabot has been a top pairing defender for years, and one of the lone bright points on a bad Ottawa team. Maybe a year or two from now. Dobson has not surpassed him yet, but it is a possibility.

The title is slightly facetious, because he has had a bad few games to start the season. I suspect that the Senators may have to trade Chabot this off season if they fail to deliver on their goal of making this season matter down the stretch. I don't think he will want to stick around on a team that fails to reach the next level.

Chabot has the better resume, is not much older, and has more team control. Dobson is cheaper for the next two years after this season, but there is risk that Dobson could walk to free agency through arbitration. He also will likely cost as much or more than Chabot on his next contract, even if he doesn't surpass him, because the salary cap is set to escalate. If Chabot was an arb eligible RFA today, he would get 9-10 million. Ala Werenski, Nurse, Jones, etc.


Quoting: Isles5513
Dobson wasn’t very productive during his first 13 games. He broke out after Pulock got hurt. Look at his numbers after that point and u will c what I mean.


Also makes no sense from a contract stand point. Isles haven’t had an issue retaining guys.
Oct. 18, 2022 at 4:41 p.m.
#21
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Quoting: budgeteam
Chabot was more productive than Dobson. He just played less games.

Left, you are right.

Age, is nearly irrelevant. There is a 3 year difference in age. Defenseman have longer primes. Because the Sens stink, Chabot doesn't have though playoff minutes on his body yet. I would argue since their age will never be a factor during the lifetime of their contracts, team control is more important. Chabot is team controlled for longer than Dobson.

Since you touted the eye test so strongly, can you give me three specific things Dobson does better than Chabot on the ice? I would like to learn.


Age is not irrelevant. A defensemans prime years are 22-28 years old, a lot of evidence points to defenseman peaking at age 24 or 25 YO.

Dobson is an RFA at the end of his contract, it’s really not important. The isles have had no problem retaining their RFAs with arb rights.

Dobson has a better shot, he’s better defensively and he’s one of the best defenseman in the league at winning puck battles in the defensive zone and then immediately exiting the zone with possession (which chabot isn’t good at).
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Oct. 18, 2022 at 6:48 p.m.
#22
1GarthSnowFan
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Quoting: Db1899
Age is not irrelevant. A defensemans prime years are 22-28 years old, a lot of evidence points to defenseman peaking at age 24 or 25 YO.

Dobson is an RFA at the end of his contract, it’s really not important. The isles have had no problem retaining their RFAs with arb rights.

Dobson has a better shot, he’s better defensively and he’s one of the best defenseman in the league at winning puck battles in the defensive zone and then immediately exiting the zone with possession (which chabot isn’t good at).


They miss the playoffs one year and every other fan base assumes they will make a trade like this one to “win now.” It’s ridiculous.
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Oct. 18, 2022 at 9:27 p.m.
#23
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Quoting: budgeteam
What are the Islanders team needs?

Do you have a suggestion on any books or literature that can provide me some tools to manage the biases that might be evident in my decision making?


Islander team needs are as follows:
Shed the multitude of useless 5-7 million dollar forwards they have
Get over JT leaving them
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Oct. 19, 2022 at 2:04 a.m.
#24
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Quoting: Dutchies
Islander team needs are as follows:
Shed the multitude of useless 5-7 million dollar forwards they have
Get over JT leaving them


I’m sure the isles wish they were paying a 2nd line center 11 mill
Oct. 20, 2022 at 9:33 a.m.
#25
Eric
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regardless of the trade value moving on from chabot this year would be a huge over reaction
 
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