why would the leafs do this?

Horrid for the Leafs. Liljegren is probably playing better than Dumba right now. Leafs aren't trading LIljegren's cheap contract and years of control for a rental Dumba.
Sure Foligno is nice, and good value. Anderson is nothing in the trade, Kerfoot still might be needed at centre this season by the Leafs. Leafs are hoping Knies becomes their Foligno for seven seasons. Yeah I really don't see the attraction to the Leafs.

You should just delete this nonsense

I think, and you'd know better than me, that Matthews is gone in 2 years. If he's leaving you need to win now, not when Knies is developed. I think Dumba is better than Liligren in the Playoffs... I thought Kerfoot was a cap dump. So, Foligno for Knies, Kerfoot cap dump, Anderson non-factor, Dumba for Liligren and first for retention and for Foligno's leadership etc..

people really don't appreciate Liljegren. Becoming such a quiet steady defender which is so interesting considering he was drafted as an offenisve D. Feel like sometimes people don't appreciate a player like that's value until there's a big dollar figure attached to their name, which should be coming soon enough. Just hope they can catch him under 5M long term.

Everyone in the core has very legitimate reason to stay here.

Matthews --> came here at 18 years old as the franchise savior, and has grown up with Marner, Nylander, Rielly - the core, if you will. He's spoken before about Washington's cup journey and how you just need to get over the hump, it's quite apparent he wants to win here with the guys he has become so close with on this team (the aforementioned core, Bunting, JT, etc.). Winning here would forever cement his legacy and would mean more to him than winning anywhere else, nor does he really have a better team to jump ship to anywhere else. He is on track to become the greatest player of all time in a franchise of over 100 years, I don't think that is lost on him. I think Matthews will also likely get the C when JT expires (JT probably re-signs but seems like a good place to switch)

Nylander --> many of the same reasons as Matthews. Further, I think the Borje thing has really motivated his play of late and will hopefully put into perspective the opportunity he has here. He seemed very, very touched by the ceremonies. Lastly, Toronto has the biggest Swede presence in the league, and much of the mini swede core (Sandin, Liljegren, Jarnkrok, Holmberg, etc) appears to be here to stay for the foreseeable future.

Marner --> again same reasons as Matthews, and he grew up here. Don't need to say much more.

Lastly, the cap situation is essentially wide open, Rielly and Jarnkrok are the only players that are currently extended after AM/WN/MM expire. They've got a ton of flexibility in terms of the deals they could give them.

I'd be very surprised to see them lose the core.

Knies is more valuable than anyone in this deal, as is Liljegren. Lily is an incredibly solid defender at 23 years old, and appears ready to be a top 4, I'd argue top pairing, two-way D. Easy pass on this deal regardless of whether they all re-sign, but I am fairly certain they will, as most of the insiders have said as well.

I've said for a while that Matthews is leaving the Leafs as a UFA. But how does that translate into the Leafs needing to win now? If the Leafs set aside 15m for Matthews and he doesn't resign in the summer of 2024, the Leafs can just spend that 15m on other UFAs, Knies isn't the replacement for Matthews, it would be a profile centre. Leafs aren't trading the superior Liljegren for Dumba. And even Knies and 1st for Foligno seems steep to me, though gotta think Foligno would be better than Knies this season.

Dumba two playoff round wins in his career doesn't shout "better in the playoffs". Foligno and all this "leadership" hasn't shown as production in the playoffs. One goal, five assists in 22 games.

while we disagree on what Matthews will do I do agree that it makes no sense. Just because he leaves doesn't mean they can't be competitive. Willy still is likely to stay, Marner especially since he's from here. JT as well. It would suck and we'd be very likely to downgrade, but we could go get a replacement C and would likely still make the playoffs, the system isn't built around one player. Pipedream would be McDavid leaves Edmonton and we just conveniently have the Matthews cap space from the year prior, but who knows.

Sure wish the Leafs had had the cap to resign Liljegren for more than two years last summer. They are going to get some nice raises in summer of 2024.
The cap next season for the Dmen....Brodie, Reilly, Giordano, Sandin, and Liljegren.. 17.1m. Add two. more like Timmins, Hollowell or a vet gee just 20m
The Blues have long term aging NTC players Parayko, Faulk and Krug 19.7 by themselves.
You're right the Leafs cap isn't bad at all.

Maybe would've been nice to get them long term, but if they weren't this good we'd all be upset over the deals. And at the end of the day as you said, having two years of these guys and Gio probably close to 3-4M below the value they are actually providing the team is something I won't complain about.

Plus Dubas really has emphasized flexibility for when Matthews needs a deal so I understand and somewhat agree with not giving guys, even if they are as important as Sandin and Liljegren, deals that could interfere with bringing back the core until all is settled.

Its actually brilliant cap work, I don't think its emphasized enough. Like that Murray deal, sure he had some confidence in him, but like he chose the lower risk option between Murray and Campbell even if Campbell outperformed Murray (LOL, very much has not), Murray's deal concludes right when we might actually need his cap space. Very impressive maneuvering with many deals.

It's just really not close at all

it's amazing how obsessed people are with Matthews leaving despite no evidence at all. John Tavares is literally the only superstar that left a team that drafted him and wanted to re-sign him. Him leaving is nothing but leaf fans emotionally hedging or other fans getting off on the idea

Gaborik?

only thing is he signed 5 year straight to UFA but after seeing McDavid in EDM why wouldn't he have kept his options open? Now he gets his raise even earlier and if Toronto was a terrible place to play he would have the option to leave. But its not, he doesn't have a better chance to win elsewhere, the cap is basically a blank cheque by the time he's UFA, like there's zero reason to leave

contract issues, injuries and personality clashes. Minnisota was really not interested in signing him, especially to a massive chunk of the cap like that, especially for a bottom half of the league team that was clearly on it's way down

Done, no takebacksies from the Wild.

Because thats how you get more money faster. signing for 5 or 6 years(or less) was much much more common place for star players on their 1st contracts. Crosby, ovie, Malkin, Toews, Kane, Panarin, Bergeron, Stamkos, etc. That way you can cash in on the max aav after or during your peak years.
McDavid is a hockey robot who basically played himself by taking both less money and max term to help the oilers build around him. Might have even been a good idea if the oilers were semi-competant, but hey, now he's stuck for 3 more years in edmonton while being under paid by 2 mill aav easy.
The only reason Tavares left was because the Islanders just got worse his last few years there and then when his contract came up they fired the GM he had a great bond with and brought in the biggest hardass in the league to try and keep him.

another great point as to why Toronto should keep Dubas (aside from, ya know, he's completely revitalized the defence and built some of the strongest Leafs teams of recent memory), especially if he has a great relationship with Matthews as the media reporters seem to say he does.

If Liljegren and Timmins make good progress maybe they just don't resign Brodie which gives more for Matthews. Rielly, Sandin, Liljegren and Timmins could be a very long term solid group. But time will tell in 2 years. Also hope JT takes a big hometown discount.