I think the Canes would do that

I think there would be other options in place of Drury (don't think SJ is interested) and Morrow, who is one of only two top defensive prospects.

Because Meier is not a rental, the closest comparable is the Debrincat trade. While Debrincat was traded in the summer, for a team like Carolina who is solidly in the playoffs it's irrelevant that they didn't have Meier for the first three quarters of the season. It's pretty much a wash since they are in the playoffs.

I suspect that the Senators did not view the players available at 7th overall last year very highly. Still, San Jose is likely looking for a prospect with top 10 talent as the centerpiece for Meier. Or, they are probably looking for two first round picks as the center piece. Look at it this way, Carolina could trade a 1st++ for Meier, and then flip him in the summer for another 1st. If you're San Jose, you want some sort of additional value to deal him at the deadline instead of dealing him at the draft.

I agree Cat is a similar comparable, but I don't agree that the destination changes the ask (a contender pays more). It should just be the market rate. Either Carolina makes the best offer or they don't. SJ isn't going to say no to a best offer because the offering team is competitive. As for the 1st ++, SJ could play hardball or see value in keeping Meier for the rest of the season, but then they have to live with only getting the 1st in the summer.

If the team with the 10th overall gives up 1st in a deal and Carolina gives up a 1st that’s 20 picks later it’s a massive difference. Whether it’s a contender or not is a big deal

Considering that Morrow is not available, this deal would fall to the wayside. The only way the Canes pull the trigger is if Meier is willing to agree to an extension beforehand at about the 8x8 range. The 2022 draft wasn’t that deep of a draft outside of the top 4, so 7OA in 2022 is probably a lot closer to the 2nd round in 2023, maybe about 25-27OA this year, given the vast difference in available quality of prospects. A 2023 first would have to be included. Ever since the Vegas expansion draft, there have only been 3 players who returned their team a net gain of 2 first round picks: Brandon Hagel, Matt Duchene, and Brayden Schenn. Seth Jones doesn’t count since while Columbus got 2 firsts, they gave up 1 in return. So 2 first rounders might be a bit high of an ask, but not out of the question.

My proposal would be this:
Canes send to SJ: 2023 1st round pick, 2024 conditional 2nd round pick (Conditions: If the Canes win the Cup in either 2023 or 2024, and Meier plays in x amount of playoff games in either year, the 2024 2nd round pick gets upgraded to a 2024 first round pick. If these conditions are not met, the Canes transfer the better of their 2 2024 second round picks and a 2024 3rd round pick), C Jack Drury, and RD Anttoni Honka.
SJ send to Carolina: Timo Meier (half retained)

SJ is guaranteed in this package: 2023 first round pick, 2024 2nd round pick, C Jack Drury, and RD Anttoni Honka. If the conditions are met you swap the 2nd for the 2024 first, and if they aren’t, they get the better 2024 2nd and a 2024 3rd.

This is a more than fair offer considering the difference between Meier and DeBrincat. Canes get their Patches replacement and Sharks get a good haul for Meier.

And what would teams like the Devils, Rags, and Leafs be offering? The Devils big piece they offer up is probably Holtz, who has excelled in the AHL, but has done virtually nothing at the NHL, and has been in the press box a lot. The Rags might offer Kravstov, but he was subpar between the AHL, KHL, and NHL. The Leafs are unlikely to move Knies or Niemela, so the best you might get is Minten, maybe? If the Sabres decide to enter the sweepstakes, they could also put together a competitive offer, but the Sharks should be prioritizing acquiring draft capital over prospects.

My guess is that SJ is getting better offers for Meier.

I don’t believe Morrow is unavailable. I believe for either Meier or Larkin, with retention, the Canes would part with either Morrow or Nikishin

Ahhh, yes... I agree with that, I thought you were getting at some point about being SJ being able to drive a harder deal because Carolina really wants Timo and the Sens didn't really want cat.
We would have to have more impactful prospects that go the other way. I say prospects because I suspect Don wants to keep the band together and just add, but I'm not sure he'll be able to.

NJ's probably giving them a better offer than this.