Dubois value discussion

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Created by: Howie

Team: 2022-23 Winnipeg Jets

Initial Creation Date: Mar. 19, 2023

Published: Mar. 19, 2023

Salary Cap Mode: Basic

Description

Based on all the information present in the case of Dubois it points to a breaking point via some type of change. His value is all over the place and seen in so many different ways leading to arguments on it.

The reasons why there is the vast amount of disagreement on his value is
Difference of understanding of the information
Rental vs extension in place value
What his upside is (60 point c vs ppg c)
Where he will sign
Amount of teams he would sign with

This agm has the purpose of sorting through what is possible and how different situations affect the returns.

The different situations that will be explored and trying my best to see everything from each side through the lens of the scenario. In no way am I saying all are fully realistic but more comparing and contrasting the deals so we understand the discrepancy between them.

Based on my deals which value wise precisely isn't the point but seeing how the value changes between the deals

Trade value of note is up for debate on what pieces would be wanted and those included but in each scenario I traded to make the offer purely of that situation. So even though Dubois may not get dach in the situation where he is acquired with the extension in place that it is a possibility. Players can be switched but more just my opinion on the situation at hand.

Sure I may get flamed for this but the trades themselves aren't perfect but more the idea behind how each scenario happens, the value reflected and how the contrast to the others. All of these situations are equally as the other to happen so the saying "wait until ufa, costs us nothing" sure is a way to think about it but that is a personal view on one situation that could occur. It's not fair to kick and scream on the other situations not happening when they could occur as well.

In conclusion am I saying that this is any close maybe. I hope I was able to layout the situation in a clear way so we can learn to overcome our personal biases of our favorite teams and understand how the value for Dubois can be seen in many different ways which are all equally valid. Hope this helped everyone and hope we can work to understand the changing path to this.

It should be noted that there is also the up most importance to make deals that make sense both ways ex Harris from mtl is a great dman but for the jets really doesn't have a spot which makes it more fluff to a deal. This would mean that having a discussion om what assets could be used for more accurate to fit the needs of both

Free Agent Signings

CREATED	YEARS	CAP HIT
Dubois, Pierre-Luc	1	$6,000,000
Dubois, Pierre-Luc	1	$6,000,000
Dubois, Pierre-Luc	1	$6,000,000
Dubois, Pierre-Luc	1	$6,000,000
Dubois, Pierre-Luc	1	$6,000,000

Trades

WPG

UFA 2024
Notes
- 32 teams are all options
- highest cap cost
- lowest trade cost (0)
- tax location and clauses have increased impact
- most ufa additions are risky to not live up to expectations

MTL

Dubois, Pierre-Luc

Additional Details:

Summary: Quite simply the easiest to explain. This is the scenario where Dubois is either traded elsewhere or kept and ends up actually testing the market. This would result in the lowest return and would be best case worse case contrast between signing team and the jets.

WPG

Kapanen, Oliver [Reserve List]
2023 3rd round pick (MTL)

Additional Details:

Traded for UFA rights
Notes
- Cheap acquisition cost
- Still ufa (can still test ufa)
- contract may be higher do to ufa predictions
- need confidence that you get him signed
- get something for a guy that could have been a situation 1
- making best of keeping or renting him (traded elsewhere) with recouping assets

MTL

Dubois, Pierre-Luc

Additional Details:

This situation occurs when an acquiring team or jets have Dubois on the roster past the 2024 playoffs and won't extend. At the draft he is traded for a quite limited return but atleast something. This can be related to the kevin hayes situation where the acquiring of ufa rights to give exclusive negotiation rights before ufa but can still test ufa. Value might be off bit depending on what team acquires him value is based on how confident they can sign him and ensuring he doesn't get a chance to be woo'd by other teams

WPG

2024 1st round pick (MTL)
2024 3rd round pick (MTL)

Additional Details:

Offersheet
Notes
- match and bite the bullet or keep him (reduce ability to trade at all)
- relations might lead to mtl players getting counter os as a retaliation in future (gms don't forget)
- Value of all is very uncertain for either side (pick unknown location vs Dubois staying long term)
- cheapest to aquire in 2023 but contract will be larger based on more solid production to base on.
- not Many os come to succeed would this be the one?
- unpredictability at its highest

MTL

Dubois, Pierre-Luc

Additional Details:

This situation occurs in the summer of 2023. This is where a tendered offer sheet is accepted by Dubois to accelerate contract and knowing where he will be in the future in terms of matched or not. This creates dilemmas everywhere if mtl is the team that tenders the os. Jets would be in a situation where you either get the picks or guarantee that he is a ufa after the 2024 season and may not be traded. For Montreal giving up a 2024 unprotected first while still rebuilding can be risky. Dubois can also still intend to test ufa for all his options. This situation is the most rocky and most direct in terms of value if Jets cannot find a trade.

WPG

Drury, Jack
Koivunen, Ville
2024 1st round pick (CAR)
2024 2nd round pick (CAR)

Additional Details:

Traded as a Rental
Based on what horvat got as a rental being a 2023 first a-/b prospect and a younger roster player

Notes
- Medium price
- Can be any team that is willing to pay that rental price (horvat esk)
- Dubois can still resign with the team as they will have negotiation rights (unless traded)
- return leaves more to be desired but based on situation can be doable
- still can go ufa and go anywhere

CAR

Dubois, Pierre-Luc

Additional Details:

In this situation Dubois is either traded before or at tdl where they get the highest return they can without any discussions on longevity. This is basically a horvat 2.0 trade where both got a 1st in the upcoming draft, a good young prospect and a young roster player. Dubois as a rental should be based on this return granting slightly more than horvat. This situation allows for some recouping assets before the season is over and make the placement worse for a better draft position.

This is assumed that Dubois is just signed a 1 year deal with the jets and no trade protection.

WPG

Beck, Owen
Mailloux, Logan
2023 1st round pick (FLA)
2024 2nd round pick (COL)

Additional Details:

Traded to team where he would sign long term
Notes
- higher chance of extension
- lower cap hit (vs ufa)
- sole negotiation rights
- higher trade cost bur not highest
- still have his rights for flipping depending on how situation goes (back up options)

MTL

Dubois, Pierre-Luc
Vesalainen, Kristian [Reserve List]

Additional Details:

This situation is the idea where no contract is settled on but he would sign there for a longer period of time. Notice that the return increases as the guarantee of Dubois staying more than 1 year becomes more likely. This return has more assets as the likelihood of extension increases and thus his value. This is done at the draft or after (picks may change as a result) and has Dubois with the new team for the entire year.

In the middle between full trade with an extension and rental price which makes it an attractive middle group of value and guarantees

WPG

Dach, Kirby
Mesar, Filip
2023 2nd round pick (MTL)

Additional Details:

Traded with an extension in place/Sign and trade
Notes
- High cost
- Guaranteed
- Avoids ufa
- Contact done and saves over ufa price
- no need for back up plans/trading him again
-

MTL

Dubois, Pierre-Luc

Additional Details:

This is the situation that arises when Dubois is dealt to a team where he immediately signs guaranteeing him with the team. This costs the most as you ensure you get the player and bypass any ufa possibilities. This would be the most favorable to the jets as it garners the most return.

This would be where some value him at higher value than some like because the longevity.

Draft	Round 1	Round 2	Round 3	Round 4	Round 5	Round 6	Round 7
2023
2024
2025

ROSTER

LONG-TERM OUTLOOK

EMBED

TEXT-EMBED

ROSTER SIZE	SALARY CAP	CAP HIT	OVERAGES	BONUSES	CAP SPACE
31	$82,500,000	$87,112,858	$0	$2,050,000	-$4,612,858

Left Wing	Centre	Right Wing
Connor, Kyle $7,142,857$7,142,857 LW UFA - 4	Scheifele, Mark $6,125,000$6,125,000 C M-NTC UFA - 2	Wheeler, Blake $8,250,000$8,250,000 RW M-NTC, NMC UFA - 2
Niederreiter, Nino $4,000,000$4,000,000 LW, RW UFA - 2		Ehlers, Nikolaj $6,000,000$6,000,000 RW, LW M-NTC UFA - 3
Namestnikov, Vladislav $1,250,000$1,250,000 LW, RW, C M-NTC UFA - 1	Lowry, Adam $3,250,000$3,250,000 C M-NTC UFA - 4	Appleton, Mason $2,166,667$2,166,667 RW UFA - 3
Barron, Morgan $925,000$925,000 ($850,000$850K) LW, RW RFA - 1	Stenlund, Kevin $750,000$750,000 C, RW UFA - 1	Kuhlman, Karson $825,000$825,000 RW UFA - 1
Gustafsson, David $775,000$775,000 LW, C RFA - 2	Drury, Jack $925,000$925,000 C RFA - 2	Maenalanen, Saku $750,000$750,000 RW, LW UFA - 1
Jonsson-Fjällby, Axel $750,000$750,000 LW UFA - 1	Beck, Owen $916,667$916,667 C RFA - 4	Gagner, Sam $750,000$750,000 RW, C UFA - 1
	Dach, Kirby $3,362,500$3,362,500 C, RW RFA - 4	Koivunen, Ville $828,333$828,333 RW RFA - 4
		Mesar, Filip $950,000$950,000 RW, C RFA - 4

Left Defense	Right Defense	Goaltender
Morrissey, Joshua $6,250,000$6,250,000 LD NMC UFA - 6	Pionk, Neal $5,875,000$5,875,000 RD UFA - 3	Hellebuyck, Connor $6,166,667$6,166,667 G UFA - 2
Schmidt, Nate $5,950,000$5,950,000 LD/RD M-NTC UFA - 3	DeMelo, Dylan $3,000,000$3,000,000 RD M-NTC UFA - 2	Rittich, David $900,000$900,000 G UFA - 1
Mailloux, Logan $897,500$897,500 RD RFA - 4
Dillon, Brenden $3,900,000$3,900,000 LD UFA - 2
Samberg, Dylan $925,000$925,000 ($350,000$350K) LD RFA - 1
Stanley, Logan $900,000$900,000 LD RFA - 1
Capobianco, Kyle $762,500$762,500 LD UFA - 2

Scratches	Injured Reserve (IR)	Long Term IR (LTIR)
	Perfetti, Cole $894,167$894,167 ($850,000$850K) LW, C RFA - 2

Which One Do You See Happening?

Mar. 19, 2023 at 9:05 p.m.

#26

Andy_Dick

Banned

Joined: Feb. 2022

Posts: 5,094

Likes: 2,375

Quoting: F50marco

Habs won't make any PLD trade until they know where their 1st is. Its as simple as that. Habs winning the lottery eliminates any need for PLD outright. Bedard and Fantilli will both be better than PLD. Probably even Carlsson too. Smith im less sure of. So the draft position dictates whether or not a PLD trade is even warranted anymore.

As for everything else, Yeah I agree 100%. BPA this draft and next year focus on RHD.

There are always back channel talks.
What I meant was that if they are close to a deal or think they have a good shot at a PLD deal at the draft or even now, that it could very well influence their draft pick decisions say if they are 5-8 OA

Mar. 19, 2023 at 9:18 p.m.

#27

F50marco

Joined: May 2015

Posts: 19,595

Likes: 6,735

Quoting: Koskinen_The_Great

Well regardless of discussion they have had already, no deal is happening until they know where the picks are going to be. Assuming they do know where they'll land and its top 5-8 like you said, they won't take a dman, there are none worthy of bumping into top 10. That would be really silly of them and doesn't sound like Hughes M.O. honestly. The wingers and centers in the 5-8 range are all interchangeable so I don't think it makes much of a difference to them assuming they add PLD.

Far more likely to trade down, if they think they'll land Dubois and would prefer moving to 10-20 to nab the top dman and get a little extra from the deal. Plenty of teams would kill to move into the top 10.

Mar. 19, 2023 at 9:35 p.m.

#28

ricochetii

Go Habs Go

Joined: Mar. 2017

Posts: 10,667

Likes: 4,091

The issue with a trade to Montreal isn't the viability.
It's the demands here for either a roster player we have already invested in for our own future, or 3 top organizational prospects (or equivalent).

Dach or Barron going the other way diminishes the purpose of acquiring Dubois, which is to ADD to our core group. If we're swapping from our core to acquire him, we are only upgrading by a percentage.
In the case of Barron we're down a much needed RHD and in the case of Dach we're getting maybe a 25% upgrade for around 75% of the price. (Roughly speaking.)

The other option presented is giving up 3 high end pieces (+) for 1. That's extremely rare and simply too much. The base template for such trades is a 1st and maybe a 3rd ranked prospect or a 1st ranked prospect and a 2nd.
Normally any added value is in the form of an existing roster player who can use a change of scenery and offers some of the cap difference. That's where you take the chance of getting an extra quality pick or prospect from the deal.

Reasonable fans will admit to a 1st and Beck as a fair offer.
Dvorak, Armia, maybe even Gurianov, RHP, Ylonen, etc. Might be palatable as well. When you start adding Mailloux, Roy, Mesar, etc., It gets out of hand.
If you want extra value, you have to dig a little deeper for a gem instead of refusing to consider anything beyond our top 3-5 guys. Look at someone like Kidney, Engstrom, Kapanen, Tuch, etc.

The majority of proposals are either on the low end or the high end. Neither is likely. It would cost Montreal 2 of the 3 pieces Winnipeg wants for a trade to happen and expecting 3/3 is simple greed.
Aim for 2/3 and then 1/10 from the next tier down. Turning one of those 10 choices into a top 6/4 is where you "win" trades.

Andy_Dick liked this.

Mar. 20, 2023 at 10:52 a.m.

#29

Burnout

Joined: Jan. 2022

Posts: 1,693

Likes: 1,028

A few things I'd push back on:

-I wouldn't view the Horvat deal as a rental. It wasn't a guaranteed extention, but Lou's been a NHL GM for 36 years, he doesn't pay those prices unless he's very confident that he can sign the guy. The rental price would likely be less.

-there generally isn't much of a lower cap hit vs ufa with these kind of RFA/soon to be UFA deals. Generally, they've ended up being around the same or more than UFA. The value is certainty, not lower cap.

-Almost all of these are missing cap considerations. Comparable deals usually have veterans making money going the other way and/or salary retention.

Mar. 20, 2023 at 12:56 p.m.

#30

Mr_Canoehead

Joined: Oct. 2019

Posts: 3,142

Likes: 2,314

PLD can improve his value (trade and contract) if he plays well in the four playoff games the Jets will play this year.

Mar. 26, 2023 at 10:10 p.m.

#31

Z0ra

power forward

Joined: Aug. 2020

Posts: 1,976

Likes: 614

Maybe Riley Kidney, Logan Mailloux, Florida's 1st, and Christian Dvorak will be a package to get Dubois?

Mar. 26, 2023 at 10:14 p.m.

#32

Andy_Dick

Banned

Joined: Feb. 2022

Posts: 5,094

Likes: 2,375

Quoting: Z0ra

Maybe Riley Kidney, Logan Mailloux, Florida's 1st, and Christian Dvorak will be a package to get Dubois?

I dont see them trading Mailloux. He has the most upside of any of their RHD and that includes Barron. They are very thin at right D. My worry is that they reach on Reinbacher in the 1st round with their top10 pick.

Mar. 26, 2023 at 10:43 p.m.

#33

ricochetii

Go Habs Go

Joined: Mar. 2017

Posts: 10,667

Likes: 4,091

Quoting: Z0ra

Maybe Riley Kidney, Logan Mailloux, Florida's 1st, and Christian Dvorak will be a package to get Dubois?

Quoting: Koskinen_The_Great

While it was the previous management group that drafted Mailloux, Molson committed the organization to working with Mailloux and overseeing his development, not only as a hockey player, but as a person.
Trading Mailloux would be reneging on that commitment. It's the Canadiens' responsibility to help him atone for his mistake, that's what we signed up for when we drafted him. Not the Jets or some other team we might use to wash our hands of the situation. His ability, trade value, and success as a player, are all secondary to that commitment.

Andy_Dick liked this.

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