Unfortunately offersheet almost never happen.

BUF is in prime position to make one happen.

It's not like they never happen:
Kesler 2006
Vanek 2007
Penner 2007
Backes 2008
Bernier 2008
Hjalmarsson 2010
Weber 2012
O'Reilly 2013
Aho 2019
Kotkaniemi 2021

That's 10 in the past 17 years. They happen, sometimes.

Issue is both Colorado and Edmonton match without thinking.

When it comes to offer sheets, they need to be 1 year in the modern league to be successful. Overpay majorly. Bouchard and Byram will be instantly matched so dial back the expectations. You're not going to get anyone of that qualify. Look at the successful offer sheets in the modern league. Kotkaniemi happened because Carolina offered him more than he's worth and then locked him up long term at a good cap hit.

Try someone like K'Andre Miller at 8.4. That's a 1st, 2nd, and 3rd. It also takes away the Rangers ability to match with them still needing to sign Lafreniere. He can't play RD, but Owen Power can. Run
Samuelsson - Dahlin
Miller - Power
Joki - Lybushkin

And Adams is clearly not the person who will make the offersheet. The latter was between Montreal and Carolina, where it was more like a backlash after the Aho offersheet.

I'd expect them to match, but it won't be easy. Both are pressed right against the Cap. They would have to do a lot of maneuvering to be cap compliant. COL has $6mm to sign 10 players (if Landy remains on LTIR all year, then they have the room). EDM has $2.8mm to sign 2 players. It won't be easy for them.

Miller would be my next target, but $8.4mm is too much.

The 1-year signing might be the way to go, depending on how much. BUF can't be shelling out too much. Dahlin and Power are going to be making a lot more in 2024.

How is it clear that Adams won't do that?

Well, this is my opinion, it’s more likely that he will sign someone to the UFA or make an tradee than offersheet which is rare in recent years, except for the crazy Bergevin.

I think an offersheet is possible only on a player who is not perfect. Kotkaniemi obviously wasn't worth the money back then, but Edmonton and Colorado will find a way to match, and the Rangers probably won't want to lose Miller either. Or you need to offersheet a huge contract for one year, as Caniac said.

There's certainly other options. There aren't any UFAs that are as good as these guys, plus Bouchard/Byram fit in with the youth movement. I want to get the best D-man I can get. The offersheet is the first thing I try. If I swing and miss, then I explore other options. It can't hurt to try.

Could go the 1-year route and offer $10mm for 1 year and lose another 1st and then sign 7yrs @$7mm. I'd be fine with that too.

Would they still be RFA after that 1 year deal ? If he`ll be RFA, his QO would be a high as this 1year deal, right ? So basically he`d have to agree to 1 year deal, and agree to extension with much lesser AAV beforehand. I doubt NHL would approve that.
Also if player signs that 1 years (fck you my previous team deal), he and his agent would be close to being blacklisted.

That's why you make it 1 year. Otherwise, it's going to be matched.

Colorado also have time to figure it out. They're likely going to be able to just terminate Nishuskin's deal if the rumors of what happened in Seattle are true. Plus, they can exceed the cap by 10% to match it and figure the rest out later.

8.4 for 1 year is going to be the best way to do it. Get as close to the upper limit on a 1 year deal as you can. Don't exceed it or the compensation moves up. There's no difference between 8.4 and 7 on a 1 yyear deal. That one year is not going to be what makes or breaks a roster, it's going to be what makes or breaks the ability to have it go unmatched.

Cute stories but offersheets don't happen for a reason. Owners are not into self spiking every rfa salary. Dreamy, yet only for lazy armchair gms

Except they do happen, as evidenced by the 10 players that have signed them.

NHL would never approve, but a wink-wink nudge nudge between player, agent and team could happen. But, yea, that's the risk of the 1-year offer sheet.

Buffalo shouldn’t consider an offer sheet until Rasmus Dahlin and Owen Power are both locked in long-term. Even if you make one and are unsuccessful, you don’t mess around when Levi’s contract is up either. Carolina shouldn’t have been looking for revenge on Montreal. The Canadiens did them a favor when Aho signed for so little money. He could have gotten two or $3 million more at the time.

1 year 6.3 mill offersheet to Laf would be extremely hard to match too

What are the odds Bouchard or Byram actually sign those offer sheets though? They're both in great positions on perennial Cup contenders. Why would they sign with Buffalo?

BUF can offer more money. BUF is now an attractive place to play.

BUF can offer more money. BUF is now an attractive place to play. I don't know the odds, obviously, but cannot hurt to try.

Adams has shown he is proactive in signing the guys he wants long term. For all we know, there are already deals in place for Dahlin and Power and they are just waiting for July 1. Dahlin, Power and Levi aren't going anywhere. And a GM should not be afraid of a player getting offer sheeted.

Can they though? You said yourself that Edmonton likely matches, so Buffalo isn't offering more.

And I'm not sure how attractive Buffalo is just yet, although they're trending in that direction.

I disagree with that. A 1-year contract for a former 1st overall pick is an almost instant match. It's not like Laf hasn't shown anything at the NHL level, he just hasn't done it consistently.

they cant afford Laf at anything over a 2 x 2.8

They have 11 million in cap space. They can afford 6.1 on Laf if they avoid a Miller offer sheet. There would be *just* enough room to fill the roster out with ELCs

a 6.3 offersheet and a 3 x 4mill (Dobson contract) for Miller would make them have 1.4 mill cap space left with a 16 man roster