Quoting: GMBL
We will see how the Tkachuk trade turns out for CGY. Huberdeau was basically set up for failure in Sutter's system. Now say it's more of the same in CGY, then that should serve as a cautionary tale for the Leafs who could end up out of the playoffs and stay there, there are several Atlantic teams on the rise.
If Matthews, Marner, Nylander+Reilly are taking 40-43M, they will be able to field a competitive team still as the cap rises. Sure, the cap is going up for everyone but with this group, so far at least, they have guaranteed a playoff berth for the Leafs. If you look at it as cup/no cup there has been no progress, but if you look at each variation of the team, there has been progress in the last two years. That being said I wouldn't be surprised if they plateau for a year or two. So, yes they should entertain offers on their core but they shouldn't make a panic move.
The Stanley Cup is a tough trophy to win, the President Trophy winners went out in the 1st round, 3/4 of last years final four including the Champs and Finalists went out in the 1st round, and the 4th went out in the 2nd. The final 4 from this year compromise of a team that missed the playoffs, one that lost in the 1st round and two that lost in the second round.
Problem is after 19 years of not making the playoffs or not making it out of the first round, when they are a perenial regular season contender, you cant just keep telling the fans to stay the course.
The idea that the leafs will just ride out tavares contract and then be blessed with oodles of cap space, or that all of the prospects will overachieve and hit are both closer to pipe dreams than reality.
UFAs like Matthews and Nylander will both be in line for raises probably in the 3mil range or more, Marner hits UFA when the cap jumps so he'll get 3mil or more so suddenly that four of marner, matthews, reilly, and nylander will be closer to 46-48mil on a cap of 90mil as opposed to 41mil on a cap of 83mil on a team that lacks high end prospects and picks, so I'm not sure that staying the course, should be the course.
If this was a 1st, 2nd or 3rd post season they underachieved as a group maybe I'd be more willing to have another go, but looking at that defense, another year of unreliable goalkeeping management, the lack of high end prospects, and the lack of picks, I think something has to change. Yes, the playoffs are tough, but all those teams that are out have either won it recently or made a serious threat to in recent years.
The Leafs will be competitive and will be a contender, but theres a reason they are an annual laughingstock. Getting one win in the second round is TOO low a bar IMO, for a team as talented as the Leafs, that contend every regular season. And I dont blame it on the big 4 forwards or reilly, its really about the entire team structure, from the cap to the icetime, the stubborn refusal to evaluate or acquire quality goaltending talent, and the continual and annual tinkering or bargain basement shopping to fix things within the team that pop up year after year, (such as grit, toughness, two way forwards, bottom 6 offense, stay at home/physical defenders).
I think the example of Dubas really throwing so many picks out there at the deadline shows that Dubas, Shanahan, Keefe and leaf fans really wanted and NEEDED it this year. The fact that Dubas went out acquired THREE defenders at the TDL or that Keefe dressed 7 defensemen and that the only young defenders Liljegren was a healthy scratch for half the playoffs and Timmins didnt dress at all, doesn;t bode well for what the leafs need to succeed in the playoffs or moving forward into next year, ignoring the fact that both those guys werent deemed good enough now.
The cap might be growing but so will the big 4 salaries, so the % of the pie they take will remain constant, as will the lack of quality depth, which will join a smaller pool of prospects/picks they now possess. The status quo has been tried and isnt working.