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is Laf realistic

Created by: mattice
Team: 2023-24 Montreal Canadiens
Initial Creation Date: May 21, 2023
Published: May 21, 2023
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24$83,500,000$69,109,166$1,170,000$4,752,500$14,390,834
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LD
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UFA - 3
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RD
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G
UFA - 1
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$863,333$863,333 (Performance Bonus$420,000$420K)
LD/RD
RFA - 2
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RD
UFA - 2
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G
M-NTC
UFA - 2
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LD/RD
M-NTC
UFA - 1
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$828,333$828,333
LD/RD
RFA - 1
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$766,667$766,667
RD
UFA - 2
ScratchesInjured Reserve (IR)Long Term IR (LTIR)
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RD
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G
NMC
UFA - 3

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May 21, 2023 at 10:25 a.m.
#1
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big overpay for a 3rd liner, 2x 2nd should do it
May 21, 2023 at 10:28 a.m.
#2
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Maple Laughs Hater
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Quoting: athrin
big overpay for a 3rd liner, 2x 2nd should do it


I feel Ranger fans would argue that
May 21, 2023 at 10:28 a.m.
#3
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IMO, not really. The Rags are likely to lose Tarasenko and Kane so they need to replace them and Laf will get his shot at the top 6 as a result. IMO the Rangers won't be trading him or Kakko unless they can resign one or both of Kane and Tarasenko.
May 21, 2023 at 10:30 a.m.
#4
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I think Laf could be had for a first alone. I don't think he is worth it, but I. Guessing that would be the rangers price.
May 21, 2023 at 10:31 a.m.
#5
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Quoting: mattice
I feel Ranger fans would argue that


fans always overvalue they players
May 21, 2023 at 10:48 a.m.
#6
HuGo is a Boss GM
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Quoting: Campabee
IMO, not really. The Rags are likely to lose Tarasenko and Kane so they need to replace them and Laf will get his shot at the top 6 as a result. IMO the Rangers won't be trading him or Kakko unless they can resign one or both of Kane and Tarasenko.


Circular logic, but they CAN resign Tarasenko IF they trade Lafreniere.
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May 21, 2023 at 10:49 a.m.
#7
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They certainly are not taking any cap other than ELC back in exchange. Dvorak is a non-starter.
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May 21, 2023 at 10:50 a.m.
#8
Jimbo1119
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Quoting: athrin
fans always overvalue they players


this is true...but unless a GM is not afraid of being tarred and feathered and then never having another front office job he will never give up on a former #1OA unless the player is an obvious bust and completely out of his element playing in the NHL.

You can argue that LaF is under performing as a former #1OA- but there is no argument in that he is an NHL player who (while continuing development) is not hurting his team with his minutes on ice. So if you want him you'll have to buck up for him. That article that makes mention of (2) 2nds isn't even toilet paper worthy!
May 21, 2023 at 10:52 a.m.
#9
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Given the cap situation for next year it looks like Laf is probably going to be a cap casualty and they'll try and recoup some value if that's the case
May 21, 2023 at 10:58 a.m.
#10
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Quoting: Jimbo1119
this is true...but unless a GM is not afraid of being tarred and feathered and then never having another front office job he will never give up on a former #1OA unless the player is an obvious bust and completely out of his element playing in the NHL.

You can argue that LaF is under performing as a former #1OA- but there is no argument in that he is an NHL player who (while continuing development) is not hurting his team with his minutes on ice. So if you want him you'll have to buck up for him. That article that makes mention of (2) 2nds isn't even toilet paper worthy!


the fact Laf was a 1st OA is completely meaningless to what he is NOW, he is a 3rd line player, Puljujärvi, Jesse is a former 4th OA pick does that mean he is worth a 1st+ in a trade ..no he is a 4th line player, Laf is a 3rd line player and unless a GM overpays, which is possible because GMs do overpay for players, NYR will get a return of what the going rate for 3rd line wingers get.
May 21, 2023 at 11:12 a.m.
#11
Jimbo1119
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Quoting: athrin
the fact Laf was a 1st OA is completely meaningless to what he is NOW, he is a 3rd line player, Puljujärvi, Jesse is a former 4th OA pick does that mean he is worth a 1st+ in a trade ..no he is a 4th line player, Laf is a 3rd line player and unless a GM overpays, which is possible because GMs do overpay for players, NYR will get a return of what the going rate for 3rd line wingers get.


LaF is a mid 6 player on just about any team. You want to label him at the lower end of that- then have at it.

But lets be clear- unless an overpay is involved, Drury will not move him. I mean- Drury held out for a 1st and a 5th for Nils Lundkvist...a guy who was dying on the vine and Drury seemingly had little leverage with. So in what universe does Drury accept (2) 2nds for -as you call him- a 21 yo NHL 3rd liner? And one who on that 3rd line is productive and whose "development" isn't setting the team back?

Drury will not accept the going rate of a 3rd line journeyman. In this case, no deal is a good deal. NYR will keep their "3rd liner". Last I checked, teams need these guys too!
May 21, 2023 at 11:15 a.m.
#12
Jimbo1119
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Quoting: seanrushton
Given the cap situation for next year it looks like Laf is probably going to be a cap casualty and they'll try and recoup some value if that's the case


Negative here...

Unless a crazy offer sheet is involved, NYR match. They have the Cap to extend Miller and LaF on bridge deals- which in this instance are probably the best interest of both players and the team.
May 21, 2023 at 11:28 a.m.
#13
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Quoting: Jimbo1119
LaF is a mid 6 player on just about any team. You want to label him at the lower end of that- then have at it.

But lets be clear- unless an overpay is involved, Drury will not move him. I mean- Drury held out for a 1st and a 5th for Nils Lundkvist...a guy who was dying on the vine and Drury seemingly had little leverage with. So in what universe does Drury accept (2) 2nds for -as you call him- a 21 yo NHL 3rd liner? And one who on that 3rd line is productive and whose "development" isn't setting the team back?

Drury will not accept the going rate of a 3rd line journeyman. In this case, no deal is a good deal. NYR will keep their "3rd liner". Last I checked, teams need these guys too!


that pick is currently 30th, would i trade picks 28-32 for Laf, yes as those are tho technically still 1st round pics, are talents wise essentially 2nds, NYR are not going to get a top 20 pick or prospect falling in the A category for Laf unless the GM trading that pick/prospect wants a pink slip.
May 21, 2023 at 11:30 a.m.
#14
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Quoting: Jimbo1119
Negative here...

Unless a crazy offer sheet is involved, NYR match. They have the Cap to extend Miller and LaF on bridge deals- which in this instance are probably the best interest of both players and the team.


"crazy offer sheet is involved, NYR match"... that's what they said about KK and the canes got him for a reasonable price. Both Bridges are probably $3m which would leave you with $5m to sign 4 roster spots including a backup goalie that doesn't seem like it's enough and I think they'd be rather dumping a massively underachieving 1OA pick than a defenseman who's very solid
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May 21, 2023 at 11:33 a.m.
#15
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Quoting: Jimbo1119
this is true...but unless a GM is not afraid of being tarred and feathered and then never having another front office job he will never give up on a former #1OA unless the player is an obvious bust and completely out of his element playing in the NHL.

You can argue that LaF is under performing as a former #1OA- but there is no argument in that he is an NHL player who (while continuing development) is not hurting his team with his minutes on ice. So if you want him you'll have to buck up for him. That article that makes mention of (2) 2nds isn't even toilet paper worthy!


Well said. Completely agree.

Quoting: athrin
the fact Laf was a 1st OA is completely meaningless to what he is NOW, he is a 3rd line player, Puljujärvi, Jesse is a former 4th OA pick does that mean he is worth a 1st+ in a trade ..no he is a 4th line player, Laf is a 3rd line player and unless a GM overpays, which is possible because GMs do overpay for players, NYR will get a return of what the going rate for 3rd line wingers get.


Huh? Puljujarvi was given far many too chances and that was because he was a top4 pick. Not close to the same situation. Laf would need to fail another 3-4 years to be a comparable. Puljujarvi could not produce on McDavid's wing with PP time. Lafreniere produces more with no PP time and on the 3rd line.
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May 21, 2023 at 11:37 a.m.
#16
Jimbo1119
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Quoting: seanrushton
"crazy offer sheet is involved, NYR match"... that's what they said about KK and the canes got him for a reasonable price. Both Bridges are probably $3m which would leave you with $5m to sign 4 roster spots including a backup goalie that doesn't seem like it's enough and I think they'd be rather dumping a massively underachieving 1OA pick than a defenseman who's very solid


If the numbers don't fit with the team as it is now, Goodrow will be moved.

And if no takers in a "reasonable" deal for him, then he will be bought out. His contract was structured with the possibility of an eventual buyout.
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May 21, 2023 at 11:49 a.m.
#17
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Quoting: Jimbo1119
If the numbers don't fit with the team as it is now, Goodrow will be moved.

And if no takers in a "reasonable" deal for him, then he will be bought out. His contract was structured with the possibility of an eventual buyout.


Okay fair enough... I can still the prospect of a team like the Hurricanes offering something like a 4.5x7 to him and I don't see the Rangers giving him a 4.5m cap hit by matching the offer sheet
May 21, 2023 at 11:52 a.m.
#18
Jimbo1119
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Quoting: athrin
that pick is currently 30th, would i trade picks 28-32 for Laf, yes as those are tho technically still 1st round pics, are talents wise essentially 2nds, NYR are not going to get a top 20 pick or prospect falling in the A category for Laf unless the GM trading that pick/prospect wants a pink slip.


Point you are missing is that NYR NEEDED to move Lunkvist- and they got back a 1st and 5th. And yeah- of course that will be a late 1st...but when the deal was made there was a decent possibility the pick would have been as low as the teens.

LaF is a completely different story. There is no need to move him. And he has the potential to pop into a star. And even if he doesn't- as long as his pay is in line with his production- then NYR keep their "3rd liner". Pretty simple stuff...the only thing which complicates things is the possibility of an offer sheet. But they are few enough and far enough between that an offer sheet is not worth worrying about. And since Gorts showed he didn't "play the offer sheet game" during his NYR tenure- I doubt he starts now in MTL.
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May 21, 2023 at 12:04 p.m.
#19
Jimbo1119
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Quoting: seanrushton
Okay fair enough... I can still the prospect of a team like the Hurricanes offering something like a 4.5x7 to him and I don't see the Rangers giving him a 4.5m cap hit by matching the offer sheet


I'm not sure what the tipping point would be...but another consideration would be what would LaF sign?
4.5 X 7 could prove to be a massive discount- especially if LaF gets good PP time elsewhere. So I don't think he'd short change himself like that.
May 21, 2023 at 12:17 p.m.
#20
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Quoting: Jimbo1119
Point you are missing is that NYR NEEDED to move Lunkvist- and they got back a 1st and 5th. And yeah- of course that will be a late 1st...but when the deal was made there was a decent possibility the pick would have been as low as the teens.

LaF is a completely different story. There is no need to move him. And he has the potential to pop into a star. And even if he doesn't- as long as his pay is in line with his production- then NYR keep their "3rd liner". Pretty simple stuff...the only thing which complicates things is the possibility of an offer sheet. But they are few enough and far enough between that an offer sheet is not worth worrying about. And since Gorts showed he didn't "play the offer sheet game" during his NYR tenure- I doubt he starts now in MTL.




A players real value is what a GM is willing to to pay for said player end of story. If no Gm is willing to trade more than a 7th round pick for McDavid then that is what McDavid is worth.
May 21, 2023 at 12:25 p.m.
#21
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Quoting: Jimbo1119
I'm not sure what the tipping point would be...but another consideration would be what would LaF sign?
4.5 X 7 could prove to be a massive discount- especially if LaF gets good PP time elsewhere. So I don't think he'd short change himself like that.


Okay so a 4.5x5 offer sheet is probably more likely and gives him a chance to grow and then sign a bigger money contract if he grows and I think that he'll sign that because it's probably more money than the bridge that New York is going to offer him. I just think that there's a top-six space in some space that he isn't going to get with New York considering that it seems that 5 out of the 6 spots are solidified for at least the next few years
May 21, 2023 at 12:29 p.m.
#22
You know nothing JS
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Quoting: athrin
big overpay for a 3rd liner, 2x 2nd should do it


He's a 3rd liner so far.

Many top 6 players were not even playing in the NHL at 21 years old. It's not like he's doesn't have time to developp his potential anymore.

Anything under a 1st+ is just silly talk by impatient people.
May 21, 2023 at 12:41 p.m.
#23
Jimbo1119
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Quoting: seanrushton
Okay so a 4.5x5 offer sheet is probably more likely and gives him a chance to grow and then sign a bigger money contract if he grows and I think that he'll sign that because it's probably more money than the bridge that New York is going to offer him. I just think that there's a top-six space in some space that he isn't going to get with New York considering that it seems that 5 out of the 6 spots are solidified for at least the next few years


for sure 4.5 X5 is more than a bridge...just can't worry too much about an OS. And as far as top 6 minutes- if he can play the right (has said he's open to it, yet still doesn't have a lot of comfort there) there is a spot there for the taking. But there's also nothing wrong with staying at 3LW- as long as he does get inserted onto PP1. Neither of these are a reach, and he would get plenty of opportunity to produce with quality line mates.
May 21, 2023 at 12:44 p.m.
#24
Jimbo1119
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Quoting: athrin
A players real value is what a GM is willing to to pay for said player end of story. If no Gm is willing to trade more than a 7th round pick for McDavid then that is what McDavid is worth.


And if no GM is willing to pay what Drury wants- I'm perfectly fine with that. I think this is the end of story!
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May 21, 2023 at 12:50 p.m.
#25
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Quoting: Jimbo1119
for sure 4.5 X5 is more than a bridge...just can't worry too much about an OS. And as far as top 6 minutes- if he can play the right (has said he's open to it, yet still doesn't have a lot of comfort there) there is a spot there for the taking. But there's also nothing wrong with staying at 3LW- as long as he does get inserted onto PP1. Neither of these are a reach, and he would get plenty of opportunity to produce with quality line mates.


I'm actually hoping my team offers him an Offer Sheet because I think that there would be both PP minutes and Top 6 minutes and he would be yet another valuable forward on our team. I'm just not optimistic about the Rags ability to develop Lafs
 
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