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Toronto Maple Leafs signed Ilya Samsonov (1 Year / $3,550,000 AAV)

Was this a good signing?
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Jul. 23, 2023 at 4:14 p.m.
#26
WentWughes
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Leafs now 6.7 Million over the salary limit.
Jul. 23, 2023 at 4:14 p.m.
#27
Go Habs Go
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Quoting: CameronSquires
But Sammy also has to accept that modest cap hit for multiple years, which he may not do


Honestly, going from untendered with a QO of $2M to $3.5M x 3 should have been considered a win for him. Even 2 years would have been fine.
He could just as easily have gone to a lesser team and had a disastrous season that lowered his value even further.
Finding the right situation to solidify yourself for a couple years after being dismissed by one organization should be the goal. Having a good year last year isn't enough basis for a contract with money and term, and Campbell is too recent of a cautionary tale about investing significantly in a netminder who performed above expectations in Toronto.
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Jul. 23, 2023 at 4:14 p.m.
#28
Ovchinnikov 137
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Quoting: Ritzy
Your 2-3 year deal at a "modest" cap hit would have been in the 4-5M range starting this year. Need to save all the cap space they can this year. Next year and onward it's wide open for making moves.


I’d absolutely would be ok with TOR taking a risk on his potential and looked to have gotten Sammy on a 2-3 year deal at 4-4.5 deal.

What is the alternative now, he replicates next season, something I think we all wish for, and you are now looking at 4-5 years at 5+. Something he’d easily get on the open market.

I don’t know about you but I’m certainly tired of having to guess who our #1 is every second offseason. I do like Woll but I’m not ready to call him a starter yet
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Jul. 23, 2023 at 4:28 p.m.
#29
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Quoting: MatthewsFan
Very surprised Treliving wasn’t able to find some common ground on a multi year deal, even in the 2-3 year range. You are now looking at 5+ mil next year on a long term (4-5) IF he is able to replicate this past season. He could potentially become a Top 10 goalie who could've been had on a modest deal and for a team that has tried 5 goalies (Andersen, Campbell, Mrazek, Murray, and Samsonov) in varying degrees to be the #1 TOR will most likely be turning to a 6th during Auston Matthews 8 year career.

F1lHYzUX0AMadq8?format=png&name=medium

F1uubpeaQAowUI5.jpg


It’s a shame this got to arbitration although I’m sure some are happy with this for some reason.


That first chart, is that his career or this past year?
Jul. 23, 2023 at 4:33 p.m.
#30
Ovchinnikov 137
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Quoting: BCAPP
That first chart, is that his career or this past year?


2022-23 season
Jul. 23, 2023 at 4:34 p.m.
#31
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A lot of people seem to assume Samsonov would have accepted 3-4 million at term and are criticizing treliving for not getting it done. Perhaps samsonov himself wouldn't have accepted that and wanted to gamble on himself for a larger contract next year...
Jul. 23, 2023 at 4:35 p.m.
#32
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Quoting: MatthewsFan
2022-23 season


So there's the rub. He was not a consistently good goaltender prior to last season. So there is a lot of gambling there.
Jul. 23, 2023 at 4:39 p.m.
#33
Ovchinnikov 137
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Quoting: BCAPP
So there's the rub. He was not a consistently good goaltender prior to last season. So there is a lot of gambling there.


F1uubpeaQAowUI5.jpg

Looks pretty consistent to me. But there is risk with any deal, especially goalies. I for one would have preferred 2-3 year deal instead next year he will be looking for significant term. Like 4-5, that’s not something I’d want
Jul. 23, 2023 at 4:41 p.m.
#34
Hakuna Matata
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Was expecting 3.4m x 1 year

Now things get interesting
Jul. 23, 2023 at 4:44 p.m.
#35
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Given his career stats this is fine. Given the leafs cap situation, Nylander's gone.
Jul. 23, 2023 at 4:47 p.m.
#36
Hakuna Matata
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Quoting: Caniac2000
Given his career stats this is fine. Given the leafs cap situation, Nylander's gone.


Not really

Would suggest doing the math again as if Leafs LTIR/Buyout Murray than how they get under is move Timmins or Lafferty or both thats really it lul

This does not = Nylander move
Jul. 23, 2023 at 4:49 p.m.
#37
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Quoting: aadoyle
Not really

Would suggest doing the math again as if Leafs LTIR/Buyout Murray than how they get under is move Timmins or Lafferty or both thats really it lul

This does not = Nylander move


Okay... or they could move Nylander and get under the cap barely and not gut half the roster? They have Bertuzzi, Domi and Knies to fill in that top six with Marner, Tavares and Matthews, theey can justify moving Nylander. With his astronomical contract demands, it just makes sense now. They're over by $6.7 million (haha, 67) so moving Nylander makes the most sense
Jul. 23, 2023 at 4:52 p.m.
#38
Hakuna Matata
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Quoting: Caniac2000
Okay... or they could move Nylander and get under the cap barely and not gut half the roster? They have Bertuzzi, Domi and Knies to fill in that top six with Marner, Tavares and Matthews, theey can justify moving Nylander. With his astronomical contract demands, it just makes sense now. They're over by $6.7 million (haha, 67) so moving Nylander makes the most sense


U do realize buying out Murray or sending him to LTIR gets them lower along with moving Lafferty and Timmins helps

Also factor in guys who wont be on the team but on the Marlies (Gambrall, Holmberg, etc) that 6.7m will dissapear fast.

It doesnt always have to = trading one of your best guys lul

Leafs can basically run a 20-21 man team safely depending on the moves.
Jul. 23, 2023 at 6:24 p.m.
#39
Orr28
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Good deal for the 6th best goalie in GAA last year.
Jul. 23, 2023 at 6:26 p.m.
#40
Orr28
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Quoting: MatthewsFan
Very surprised Treliving wasn’t able to find some common ground on a multi year deal, even in the 2-3 year range. You are now looking at 5+ mil next year on a long term (4-5) IF he is able to replicate this past season. He could potentially become a Top 10 goalie who could've been had on a modest deal and for a team that has tried 5 goalies (Andersen, Campbell, Mrazek, Murray, and Samsonov) in varying degrees to be the #1 TOR will most likely be turning to a 6th during Auston Matthews 8 year career.

F1lHYzUX0AMadq8?format=png&name=medium
F1uubpeaQAowUI5.jpg


It’s a shame this got to arbitration although I’m sure some are happy with this for some reason.


This deal is fine because he's coming off a season where Washington didn't qualify him and the Leafs took a flyer on him when they were going with Murray as the starter. Had a good year, where he earned a couple million bucks more. And now it's his prove it year, where he either earns a longer deal, or he tanks.
Jul. 23, 2023 at 6:32 p.m.
#41
Future Ducks legend
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Quoting: MatthewsFan
Very surprised Treliving wasn’t able to find some common ground on a multi year deal, even in the 2-3 year range. You are now looking at 5+ mil next year on a long term (4-5) IF he is able to replicate this past season. He could potentially become a Top 10 goalie who could've been had on a modest deal and for a team that has tried 5 goalies (Andersen, Campbell, Mrazek, Murray, and Samsonov) in varying degrees to be the #1 TOR will most likely be turning to a 6th during Auston Matthews 8 year career.

F1lHYzUX0AMadq8?format=png&name=medium

F1uubpeaQAowUI5.jpg


It’s a shame this got to arbitration although I’m sure some are happy with this for some reason.


It going to arbitration allows a second buyout window for Murray. Buyout was likely the backup plan to moving Murray, so we will see what happens.
Jul. 23, 2023 at 7:09 p.m.
#42
Ovchinnikov 137
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Quoting: Orr28
This deal is fine because he's coming off a season where Washington didn't qualify him and the Leafs took a flyer on him when they were going with Murray as the starter. Had a good year, where he earned a couple million bucks more. And now it's his prove it year, where he either earns a longer deal, or he tanks.


My argument to this is I don’t believe committing long term to ANY goalie unless his name is Vasilevskiy, Shesterkin, Sorokin, Saros and most likely Oettinger is worth while.

With Samsonov NOW a pending UFA he will be commanding a long term deal somewhere in the range of 4-5 years that will exceed 5+mil. If not from TOR then some other franchise.

The smart play would have been to get Samsonov on a 2-3 year deal, allows you see what you have in Woll, then reevaluate in 2-3 years. At a manageable 4+ cap hit.

Now TOR is going into another offseason without their #1 goalie locked up and a very poor FA goalie class.

F1k4MBXaEAAFFt_?format=jpg&name=large

That’s my issue
Jul. 23, 2023 at 7:12 p.m.
#43
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Quoting: GiggywithGibby
It going to arbitration allows a second buyout window for Murray. Buyout was likely the backup plan to moving Murray, so we will see what happens.


Ya it all depends on Murray’s health if he is even eligible to be bought out. EDM placed Mike Smith on LTIR for the final year of his deal after he played 16 healthy playoff games the previous year.
Jul. 23, 2023 at 7:14 p.m.
#44
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Quoting: MatthewsFan
Ya it all depends on Murray’s health if he is even eligible to be bought out. EDM placed Mike Smith on LTIR for the final year of his deal after he played 16 healthy playoff games the previous year.


Murray hans't played a game since he was medically cleared back in march, I seriously doubt he is going to be able to be put on LTIR, especially for the entire year. Unless it comes out that he is having a major hip surgery, and then the question would be why has he waited until late July, after the arbitration ruling to get the procedure done?
Jul. 23, 2023 at 7:23 p.m.
#45
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Thats a big win for Toronto for 1 year... then assuming he replicates this past season...its a loss as he is walked to UFA and will command a bigger raise- and some term, and the Leafs are without a true #1 again. Woll is not the answer.
Jul. 23, 2023 at 7:49 p.m.
#46
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Quoting: GiggywithGibby
Murray hans't played a game since he was medically cleared back in march, I seriously doubt he is going to be able to be put on LTIR, especially for the entire year. Unless it comes out that he is having a major hip surgery, and then the question would be why has he waited until late July, after the arbitration ruling to get the procedure done?




I never would have thought possible for Mike Smith to go from healthy to LTIR for the entire year.

Mike Smith

All it took was a failed physical.
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Jul. 23, 2023 at 8:10 p.m.
#47
Hakuna Matata
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Edited Jul. 23, 2023 at 8:19 p.m.
Quoting: MatthewsFan


I never would have thought possible for Mike Smith to go from healthy to LTIR for the entire year.

Mike Smith

All it took was a failed physical.


Man if he goes to LTIR god help this site its gonna break them

Like teams have been abusing LTIR since the dawn of the flat cap but as soon as we do it people complain lul

His medical history especially these past 2 years is enough for LTIR Robidas Island at this point

As whats he got left to prove hes got 2 cup rings and has made his money.

Now sure buyout can still happen but if u look at LTIR vs buyout for the cap situation LTIR has more benefits for them
Jul. 23, 2023 at 8:20 p.m.
#48
Orr28
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Quoting: MatthewsFan
My argument to this is I don’t believe committing long term to ANY goalie unless his name is Vasilevskiy, Shesterkin, Sorokin, Saros and most likely Oettinger is worth while.

With Samsonov NOW a pending UFA he will be commanding a long term deal somewhere in the range of 4-5 years that will exceed 5+mil. If not from TOR then some other franchise.

The smart play would have been to get Samsonov on a 2-3 year deal, allows you see what you have in Woll, then reevaluate in 2-3 years. At a manageable 4+ cap hit.

Now TOR is going into another offseason without their #1 goalie locked up and a very poor FA goalie class.

F1k4MBXaEAAFFt_?format=jpg&name=large

That’s my issue


If he demands a long term deal, so be it. Look at Campbell. Also, if they wanted him for 2-3 more years, he'd probably want more, and they would have to go to arbitration anyway.
Jul. 23, 2023 at 8:33 p.m.
#49
Book em, Danno
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I'm just confused by anyone who posted "Treliving W", or some variation. You know this was an arbitration contract, right? An independent third party awarded this contract. Whether you like the deal or not, Treliving argued for a lower number, Samsonov's agent argued for a higher number, and this was the actual result.
Jul. 23, 2023 at 8:34 p.m.
#50
Hakuna Matata
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Quoting: Eddie_Spaghetti
I'm just confused by anyone who posted "Treliving W", or some variation. You know this was an arbitration contract, right? An independent third party awarded this contract. Whether you like the deal or not, Treliving argued for a lower number, Samsonov's agent argued for a higher number, and this was the actual result.


Its a Tree W for the fact he didnt give in to Sammy's demands and pay him 4.9m like Dubas would have

He is letting the rest of the team know I dont go by your numbers I go by mine or let an arb decide what u get
 
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