I take issue with the Drouin comp. Although he was the same age as Zegras is now, their production is very different in the two years leading up to the trade.

Drouin 15-16: 39 pt pace
Drouin 16-17: 60 pt pace

Zegras 21-22: 67 pt pace
Zegras 22-23: 66 pt pace

On top of that, Zegras is an extremely marketable fan favorite. It should take more than Slafkovsky and a 2nd to get it done imo.

Slaf is way higher ranked than Sergachev was at the time of the trade. IK this seems to be what ANA wants, but I can tell you now, if Slaf is the price for Z, Zegras will not be a Habs

Drouin was stuck playing 3rd line his first two season in Tampa, while Zegras played 1st line. I think value should be close.

And Slafkovsky value is higher than Sergachev was. Not sure MTL should be adding a pick.

I think if a trade was to be made for Zegras, it would have been for MTL 5th overall pick at the 2023 draft.

I wouldn’t give up Slaf for Suzuki. Suzuki and Zegras are about the same valie

It’s difficult to find up and coming star players who get moved right after their ELC. It’s very rare and usually the team that drafted them will give an extension. I get what you are saying though and my idea was Drouin was also an up and coming player that had another untapped level (hindsight, he never broke through). Many are saying about Zegras, though we can all admit Zegras is a much better player than Drouin was at the time.

This is true, I admit it’s not a perfect comp, but it’s close enough and I think there’s an argument for it, which is why I included it. Drouin and Zegras were both high picks, and both hyped as players who are fringe stars, but have/had another untapped level to their game.

Any trade would have been done near the draft, I also agree. It’s tough now because most teams are against the cap right now. I forgot to add picks would be conditional based on games, like the Drouin trade. And yes, Slafkovsky has better value than Sergachev at the time. This is more of a best offer and I think of all teams, the Habs control the table in a Zegras deal compared to the other teams.

I don’t actually believe Slaf would be in a Zegras deal. The game has changed a lot in the past 7 years. With advanced analytics and a steady cap for the past few years, teams are more cautious about parting with top prospects, promising young players on ELCs now than ever before.

Ahh makes sense, I understand more what you trying to do. I think Reinbacher would make more sense if you are trying to follow that model since he is similar to Sergachev in terms of prospect situation

Tbf, Zegras has more value than Suzuki. I am against trading Slaf, but Zegras would cost a bit more than trading for Suzuki.

I considered Reinbacher, but a) you don’t trade a top draft pick NOT even a year into the season, b) he filled a massive need at RD and is presumed to be Lane Hutson’s future partner and c) How does trading Reinbacher not get PR flack and enrages the entire fan base, after passing on Michkov? Management is all in on Reinbacher succeeding, arguably more so than Slaf imo.

That being said, the Habs have the most intriguing prospects and young talent available. They realistically could beat any other team for Zegras, if they wanted to and ANA lacks PWR FWDs and elite RHD.

Zegras is probably a bit more highly regarded than Drouin.

Here are a few others…food for thought (wide ranges intended)

Phil Kessel 2009
Zibanejad 2016
Heatley 2005
Selänne 1995
Seguin 2013
Skinner 2018

I forgot Kessel, but he went for two 1sts and a 2nd, close to the Dougie Hamilton trade. Yeah Zegras is a better player, but both had similar results on their final year of their ELC. Also, both were fringe stars that have another level to their game and also played the same position. Also LIRIK commented that Drouin was on the third line a lot, while Zegras was on the top line. Not a perfect comparison, but it is justifiable.

Kessel, Selänne, Skinner, Zibanejad were contract related. Heatley, Seguin were off-ice factors. If a trade were to occur, I imagine we will hear it was $$ issue, which is why I listed those. Some may claim a little Seguin in Zegras too.

Love the comps approach.

very interesting approach to it. I like it, and the more in depth look at it

it's hard to find a comp that fits the weird scenario.

A bottom feeder unwilling to part with money their atar deserves, lowballing him to ludicrous levels. The requirements are crazy hard to match.

Bottom of league team-
20 goal, 60pt player-
coming off of elc-
hypothetical trade reqs;defense prospect, center replacement.

But even then, what doesn't make sense is the replacement will be paid around as much as Zegras deserves. Really weird rumors. Maybe they're just that. Isn't confirmed yet, nor is the trade route rumor open.

I don’t really think ANA needs a center tbh. They’re pretty loaded up there with Carlsson and Mactavish. They direly need defensive help though and scoring wingers.

They have some good options at defense but they all seem to be more of puck movers in Drysdale, Mintyukov and Zellweger. Not entirely familiar with the depth of their prospect pool. I’m also very unsure of why Anaheim even would want to bridge Zegras. They don’t need to save the cap space right now, may as well front load it if they’re concerned with what type of player he projects to be.

I am purely speculating here because there is virtually no information on this, but I think Zegras was the one pushing for a bridge. Best contract he could sign now is an 8x8, but if he takes $6M over the next three years and proves himself a star producer, with the cap going up, could be looking at a 8x10+

Although I think there is also some truth to Verbeek being skeptical to sign him for 8 years with a lot of question marks still on him. If that is the case, then I really dont understand it from the Ducks perspective but we may never know for sure

I have my own reservations about Zegras as a player and I’m unsure if he ever takes that next step or stay at C. From a Ducks FO perspective, I’m confused why you wouldn’t extend him. He’s good for business, a fan favorite, and the first drafted piece of this rebuild. I don’t get why Verbeek is trying to play hardball with his players. Realistically, hardball only works if you have (or on the precipice of) a winning culture and the player fears they will miss out on a potential cup run, if they walk.

Yep, Ducks FO and Zegras agree on term, not AAV. It’ll be interesting what happens to Zegras because I think a lot of the younger players gravitate towards him and if he is traded, how will the other building block pieces feel? Will they also fear they’ll get traded or want out and then start rebuilding a rebuild? All very valid questions.

Exactly that, for a small market team having a guy like Zegras is good for business. He puts our name on the map and he could arguably become the most marketable player in the league in a few years. I think he moves to the wing if he stays in Anaheim, he basically played a wing/center hybrid last year with Strome or Henrique taking a lot of faceoffs while he was on the ice. I think Verbeek thinks that if he gives Z what he wants then that will increase the cost of upcoming post-ELC contracts (i.e McTavish, Zellweger, Mintyukov, and of course Carlsson among others) which makes sense but not at the cost of losing the trust of these guys and looking like a hard ass. We obviously dont know exactly where the numbers lie, but if the report of 3-4M offered by the Ducks is true and is really where they stand, then there is a problem. Dont want to speak too soon though, he could end up signing today and all this conversation is for nothing. One only needs to look a few weeks back at the Terry contract negotiations to see that a deal might seem closer than we think