I see $11M but I'd be happy at $12M. Lots of Jimbo deals expiring. But they have to sign him soon. Price keeps going up.

I think you are underselling Pettersson a bit. He is top-10 if not top-15 player in league. On average night, he is probably in between our two guys (both offensively and defensively).

I don't think Kuz's finishing is sustainable. He got backdoor opportunities because Petey gets swarmed. He lived on the doorstep to the goal. Horvat had a lot of tips. Many of those came from Hughes at the point.

I do think that Petey having help allows for more production though. And that's what a top line should have. The mixture of forwards he had the year prior weren't always that great. Outside the lotto line (JT and Boeser which was about 150 minutes of the season) he was getting the Travis Green spin cycle of Vancouver middle six guys.

I don't think I am. His last 2 year numbers on an 82 game pace

87 points, 36 goals, with elite defense. That's exactly what I think he is.

His underlying numbers suggest he's Nico Hischier 95% with elite finishing ability

That's all I'm saying.

High 80s points, high 30s goals, with elite defensive numbers. That is what I think Elias Pettersson is.

I think Nico is a low 80s points, low 30s goals, with elite defensive numbers.

I think Jack Hughes is going to be a high 40s goals, high 100s points, with very solid defensive numbers.

I think Hughes is the 5th best C in hockey

I think pettersson is in the 6-10 range with Crosby Barkov Point Tage. (probably 8th)

I think hischier is in the 11-15 range with Stutzle, Mika, Eichel, and Aho (probably 13th)

Hits
Hughes 12
Hischier 34
Pettersson 74

Shots Blocked
Hughes 30
Hischier 61
Pettersson 89

Penalties Drawn
Hughes 22
Hischier 30
Pettersson 39

There are some things that don’t show up in scoring stats that help a team win. Pettersson does everything well.

He has a freaky shot so I'd bank on 40 goals and closer to 100 points, if not higher. Tocchet will skate him insanely high minutes as well so he has a good chance for 100 pts. I'm not sold it was an outlier but we'll see. Hoping so for Vancouver lol

I agree. I’d be very content with Nemec, Mercer, futures….

The penalties are impactful but imo a partial product of the NHL game managing. If you as a team don't commit many penalties and are winning often, it means the refs won't call a lot of penalties in your favour. I believe Hughes Hischier and Pettersson all draw approximately the same amount of actual penalties, but the game script leads to pettersson getting more calls.

Realistically I don't see this changing for NJD as they are likely taking out their top 2 pims guys from last year out of the lineup (wood+smith). They might even get less calls.

Edit; this also lead to Hughes+Hischier getting 80% of the PP time of Pettersson

I think pettersson is a top 8C but all the numbers behind the numbers give me reason to believe that Hughes would have put up ridiculous offensive numbers in pettersson's shoes

an extra 25% PP time, with much better finishers around him, against much worse goalie competition. I think he would have had at least 115 tbh.

I mean for Mercer he can play center but he’s naturally a winger. If a Pettersson trade happens, Vancouver will 100% be getting his replacement at C knowing that they avorted the JT Miller trade to the Penguins at the deadline bc they weren’t getting a top 6 center/ replacement back.

Pettersson is literally playing with Beauvillier and Kuzmenko while Hughes is playing with Bratt and probably a 70pts Tyler Toffoli now.

Barkov is so overrated IMO. Aho Pettersson Eichel Crosby are all ahead of him

Buffalo actually didn’t got a crazy return for Eichel looking back at it. Yes Tuch is REALLY SOLID and a real top 6 player, but it only happened when he got in Buffalo. He wasn’t really like that in Vegas. They got Krebs who is still really struggling to find his pace. He still needs to break out and prove everyone that he is a solidified Nhler. They got a 1st and it was supposed to be a late one but Vegas missed the playoffs so it turned out to be Noah Ostlund who is really good. They then got a Second. So looking back at these offers for Pettersson that we are offering, it would be actually hard to see these happens. The equivalent of the Eichel trade would be

Holtz = Krebs
Bratt ( 2x more value than Tuch ) = Alex Tuch
1st 2024
2nd 2025

Toffoli wasn't on the devils last year so irrelevant to what I was talking about.

Let's go thru it.

an extra 60 minutes of PP ice time.

much better finishers around him in Kuzmenko, Miller, and Horvat with the biggest impact being no more snakebitten Haula. (those 3 combined for 30 goals above expectation in vancouver and 2/3rds of petterssons assists).

Goalies in the division going from:
Shesterkin, Hart, Sorokin, Kuemper, Jarry, half a season of Korpi, and the canes SHUTDOWN D 4x a year
Overall the Metro goalies combined for 61.5 GSAx
to:
Skinner, Markstrom, Logan Thompson/Hill, half a season of Korpi, the Anaheim dumpster fire, the sharks dumpster fire, and Martin Jones. (only 3 goalies had above 1 GSAx. Korpisalo lmao, Copley, Skinner)
Overall the pacific goalies combined for NEGATIVE 76.8 GSAx.


I'd say the extra PP time gives him another 5-10 points based on his PP rates, the extra shooting help gives him another 5-10 even strength apples, and the goalies give him an extra 4 snipes.

I think value wise this offer is pretty decent. That said I would think Vancouver would want a young center coming back if they are dealing their #1, especially since they have no C prospects that project to be top 6 centers. A young projected top 6 C (preferably already and NHL player) and a top D prospect is where I think the bidding starts.

Pettersson is just not in the same league of Hischier and Hughes. Can't compare the production with adverse goalies.

The package is definitely worth it in terms of value if Vancouver felt like they needed to trade Petterson. I would be inclined to agree that the package isn't enough for Vancouver to want to trade him., particularly because they don't have a top 6 C coming back or an extra one on their team. I

On the other hand, NJ already has an elite 1C and great defensive 2C, moving one of them to the wing just to pay Petterson a ton doesn't mske s lot of sense with what they sre trying to do in terms of cap structure and roster construction. So, I don't think this trade is worth it for either side



You're ignoring the fact that Pettersson is only 24. You're acting like like he can't improve over the years. Maybe his production takes a dip based on guys shooting percentage coming down or maybe it doesn't since it is just as possible for other guys to improve their shooting percentage. He's definitely above PPG player even if he's not a 100pt guy.

Pettersson is closer to a PPG career-wise than Hughes is, do you doubt that Hughes is above a PPG player? No you don’t. Different players develop at different rstes, and just because Hughes is 22, does not mean thst Pettersson isn't just as impressive even if you think, ultimately, Hughes is and will be better and

It is possible that pettersson's teammates have ridiculously inflated shooting rates again. I still wouldn't credit Pettersson.

Like I've said many times, it is due to a combination of Luck, Talent by the like of Horvat/Kuzmenko/Miller, and Poor goaltending in the division. I expect the pacific goalies to still suck, and Miller will likely shoot at a high rate again. Kuzmenko is an unknown. Regardless, whether or not Pettersson's teammates convert their chances or not has no bearing on how good I think Pettersson is.

But like I've said, half of petterssons assists went to Kuzmenko and Horvat. They were shooting at rates that nobody has since the early 90s. I doubt that improves.

The rest of pettersson's teammates shot at approximately expectation. I don't see positive regression coming there either.

Now to the disingenuous hughes point.

Hughes has been above a PPG in his age 20 and 21 seasons with no underlying factors suggesting unsustainably and growth expected to continue

Pettersson was below a PPG in his age 20, 21, 22, and 23 seasons, with underlying factors suggesting last season's performance ins't sustainable. Player growth, especially for forwards, tends to taper off in the mid 20s. With 4.5 full campaigns under his belt playing heavy minutes, I don't see Pettersson improving much more if at all.

I wasn't saying the players in Vancouver were going to have inflated numbers again. Other guys can pick up the slack resulting in the same or higher overall production. Vancouver had 276 goals found vs NJ's 296 last year. So, while Horvat and Kuzmenko had ridiculous shooting %, it's not like their team produced at a ridiculous rate.


I also did not make any disingenuous Hughes points. I just suggested that what you are saying about Pettersson is akin to trying to discredit Hughes except that Hughes is 2-years younger. You're basically suggesting that players hit their peak at 23, and that Petterson's year last year was just a fluke. It's wild that you think a 24 yo can't improve or more so a 23-yo. I'm not saying that he will be producing more than he did last year, but rather that his increased production was a result of improvement and there's potential for further improvement as well. You're saying his stats were inflated (by 20 pts nonetheless), so if he gets another 90-105 pt season, then in terms of production he did improve according to your claim if the shooting % comes down.

I would recommend taking a look at any top C who was drafted after the goalie era, and seeing their production post at 24 and beyond vs 18-23. McDavid, MacKinnon, Matthews, Eichel and Point for example. Draisaitl would be a good one as well. If you were arguing that Pettersson might have hit his career high already, then that's something you could argue, but you're trying to say he's a PPG C.

Player's tend to plateau in their mid 20s. That is fact based on decades of evidence.

Pettersson has a 4 year sample size as a below PPG player and a 1 year inflated sample size as an above PPG player with underlying numbers that suggest it isn't legit/

All of the players you mentioned plateaued around age 23-24, but thanks for proving my point

I believe pettersson will as well, and I do not believe his numbers this year reflected his actual talent and were inflated by all the reasons I listed. So I believe his talent is that of a PPG+ player, and won't improve much more

Hischier had a 5 year sample size of being a 56 point per 82 game player, yet you said Pettersson is a slightly better version of him, despite the fact Pettersson played at a 74 point per 82 game pace prior to this season. And does that also mean Hischier’s 80 point season last year wasn’t legit and likely won’t hold up?

Pettersson has also never been on that great of a team, yet has been pretty much a PPG player throughout his career
•Rookie season Antoine Roussel and Loui Eriksson were top 5 among Canucks forwards in points
•Second year they brought in Miller which helped, but Pettersson helped make him into a PPG player. Virtanen was also 6th among Canucks forwards in points that year
•Third year he was injured and the team was bad
•Fourth year he was playing through an injury. Post All Star Break when he was healthy he played at a 50 goal 100 point pace

While Pettersson broke out last season, it really started post all star break in 21/22. For comparison

Pettersson last 120 games
62G, 88A, 150P (12 PP goals, 30 PP assists, 42 PP points)

Hughes last 120 games
66G, 80A, 146P (15 PP goals, 30 PP assists, 45 PP points)

Hischier last 120 games
40G, 77A, 117P (8 PP goals, 17 PP assists, 25 PP Points)

Yes, in terms of production, offensive superstars do tend to plateau in terms of production, and star players might even fall off but that doesn't mean that they don't grow as players. Plateauing means to stay around the same, so in regards to production even if a guy hits his career high at 23-24, he shouldn't be dropping two levels of production (unless they had astronomical production). It's also not true that all the guys that I mentioned peaked at 23-24, but the whole point was to show the different trajectories that guys had, and when they reached another level not when they plateaued. So, point one is that there's the possibility of growth at ages 23 and 24 and beyond even if they already had their career high in production. Like I already said, I'm not arguing the fact that Pettersson might have already hit his career-high and that some regression can be expected based on his circumstances. The growth that he sees up until he reaches his peak as a player (assuming he's not there already) could be that he sees higher point totals since he's already solid defensively.

That takes us to the main thing, what is Pettersson? You're saying he's not a 100-pt guy, but rather a PPG to 85-point guy based on his talent,, so you're expecting an 18-20-point regression regardless if he was on the Canucks or New Jersey for the reasons you mentioned unless he has someone to boost his production. You have some valid points on why a regression in production can be expected but you are overlooking some things.

1) You said, Pettersen never had above PPG production in 4 years which is true, but you also overlooked the fact that Pettersen averaged a 73 pt pace on average over those years, with the lowest being a ~0.8 PPG over a quarter of a season = 66pt pace (16-19 pts off PPG+). So, he was consistently, on average, 10-12 pts away from being what you think he is since entering the league, other than that short year. He then produced 30 pts more than his career average with two teammates with high shooting percentages. So, his production isn't really coming out of nowhere like Tkachuk's who did have a near PPG season in his 3rd year but averaged just under 0.8PPG before his first 100 pt season in year 6.

2) You mentioned the high-scoring percentages which did not lead to a great number of goals scored by the Canucks as a team which was 22nd in GF (NJ was 3rd). However, it did lead to a significant amount of goals by Pettersson+Horvat+Kuzmenko+Beauvillier 118, which is comparable to the Lindholm-Tkackhuk-Gaudreau line which had 122 . That being said Pettersson-Kuzmenko-Horvat was not a line, and Pettersson+Horvat only hooked up for 12 points, 7 of which were Horvat scoring, so that's 7/31 goals that Horvat scored in Vancouver. His most common linemates were Kuzmkenko, Mikheyev, and Beauvillier who combined for 100 goals along with Pettersson.

3) Kuzmenko and Pettersson combined for 44 pts which isn't a lot more than Hughes and Bratt's 36. Kuzmenko did score 7 more goals than Bratt. I suspect Kuzmenko's high shooting percentage is probably because of the 14 PPGs that he had, I don't watch a lot of Cancuck games, but I did see him a score quite a few times from in front of the net, a lot of them being freebies. I don't think he will get nearly as much next year but if he has a guy that can score 30+ goals (which might be Kuzmenko) then he should be set.

4) Pettersson averaged 0.938 primary points vs Hughes' 1.03, so there's no reason to think that Pettersson is only an 82-85-point player if Hughes is a 100-pt player which I think he is.

Conclusion:

If you take away those 7 points that Pettersson assisted on Horvat's goals and the 8 points difference between Hughes-Bratt and Pettersson-Mikheyev, then Pettersson would have had 88 points last year in 81 games. So, I would say that Pettersson is a 90+ point guy more or less at the least. If Pettersson does have an 18-20 point drop off, it's more because of the lack of talent around him, not that he's not talented enough. I wouldn't be surprised though if he produces 95+ pts from here on out as he's an incredibly talented athlete who already has a good grasp on the defensive side of things.

I'm curious as to what you think of Matthew Tkachuk. Personally, I'm waiting for him to fall off like Jamie Benn did but he's much younger so, maybe he has 2 more years of 100+ before dropping to 85-90.

Devils cannot pay him

Quite a few of Kuzmenko’s goals were freebie tip ins off of great Pettersson passes. He didn’t take a lot of shots either, averaging less than 2 a game, so that resulted in his insane shooting percentage. I expect him to shoot quite a bit more this season, so while he definitely won’t shoot as high of a percentage as last season he should still score 30+ if he increases the volume of shots he takes

https://youtu.be/NDz0ldV57gA?si=rBRn2yq2-5VWqn_s

If you watch this video of all his goals from last season, you’ll see he’s constantly in great position for either a wide open tap in off a cross ice pass (which Pettersson excelled at finding him for those) as well as being met front for tip ins. I expect him to score quite a few of those again this season