John Gibson

Forums/Armchair-GM

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Created by: NHLfan10506

Team: 2023-24 New Jersey Devils

Initial Creation Date: Dec. 3, 2023

Published: Dec. 3, 2023

Salary Cap Mode: Basic

Description

Two things to state first....

1. I do not think NJD add a goalie mid-season unless we have an injury. There is nothing to suggest we are actively looking...and our GM has said he doesn't like changing goalies mid-year. So if we make a move, it will probably come in off-season.

2. I do not share the same view of the goalie market in general as many on ACGM. I think there are far fewer buyers, far fewer sellers than we think. In short, the goalie market is comprised of unwanted goalies. So we are not going to just add Swayman or Oettinger or Saros or whomever.

So why Gibson?

1. He may be the best guy available (if available)
2. He is a 55-start workhorse
3. He carries 'bad-team-baggage'...(he is better than many think)
4. His cap hit is manageable...especially when the norm for next wave will be $8m+
5. He has term...3.5 years left
6. He is consistent over long term
7. He is a guy I think Devils would develop confidence playing in front of day-in-and-day-out

Comps used in price

-- Frederik Andersen 2016: Andersen had been in tandem with Gibson in Anaheim (they won 2015-16 Jennings Trophy). He was traded as he hit RFA, but came with $5m x 5 year extension. He was a few years younger than Gibson is today. Ducks got a late 1st and a mid 2nd just before draft (so pick values were known). The combined value of the #30 pick and #50 pick is roughly the same as the #17 overall pick (according to pick value charts)...pretty close to where NJD pick is today.

-- Tomas Vokoun 2007: Vokoun was closer in age to Gibson and was similar workhouse with 4 years remaining on deal (at $5.7m). He had been top-10 for Vezina in each of the the prior three years...and was probably the best goalie to be made available in years. Nashville had Chris Mason on their roster (who flamed out the next year and was dealt in 2008) and young stud Pekka Rinne in AHL. At the 2007 draft, Nashville traded him to Florida for a 1st round pick and two 2nds. Florida was overpaying a bit since they trying to make up for Luongo trade the prior summer (and were left with 41-year old Ed Belfour).

-----
On lineup...
-- I didn't set lines
-- Dougie is in lineup to show cap if case he returns this season

Trades

NJD

Gibson, John ($1,280,000 retained)

Additional Details:

20% retention

Devils 2024 1st flips to 2025 1st if it is top-5 (or #29-32 and conflicts with Meier trade condition)

ANA

2024 1st round pick (NJD)
2024 3rd round pick (NJD)
2025 4th round pick (NJD)

NJD

Future Considerations

(any team)

Draft	Round 1	Round 2	Round 3	Round 4	Round 5	Round 6	Round 7
2024
2025
2026

ROSTER

LONG-TERM OUTLOOK

EMBED

TEXT-EMBED

ROSTER SIZE	SALARY CAP	CAP HIT	OVERAGES	BONUSES	CAP SPACE
22	$83,500,000	$81,206,667	$422,500	$2,232,500	$2,293,333

Left Wing	Centre	Right Wing
Toffoli, Tyler $2,125,000$2,125,000 RW, LW UFA - 1	Hughes, Jack $8,000,000$8,000,000 C UFA - 7	Mercer, Dawson $894,167$894,167 ($400,000$400K) RW, C RFA - 1
Meier, Timo $8,800,000$8,800,000 LW, RW UFA - 8	Hischier, Nico $7,250,000$7,250,000 C UFA - 4	Bratt, Jesper $7,875,000$7,875,000 RW, LW UFA - 8
Holtz, Alexander $894,167$894,167 ($850,000$850K) RW, LW RFA - 2	McLeod, Michael $1,400,000$1,400,000 C RFA - 1	Lazar, Curtis $1,000,000$1,000,000 RW, C UFA - 2
Palat, Ondrej $6,000,000$6,000,000 LW, RW NMC UFA - 4	Haula, Erik $3,150,000$3,150,000 C, LW NTC UFA - 3	Bastian, Nathan $1,350,000$1,350,000 RW UFA - 2

Left Defense	Right Defense	Goaltender
Siegenthaler, Jonas $3,400,000$3,400,000 LD UFA - 5	Hamilton, Dougie $9,000,000$9,000,000 RD NMC UFA - 5	Gibson, John $5,120,000$5,120,000 G M-NTC UFA - 4
Hughes, Luke $925,000$925,000 ($925,000$925K) LD/RD RFA - 2	Marino, John $4,400,000$4,400,000 RD UFA - 4	Schmid, Akira $850,833$850,833 ($57,500$58K) G RFA - 1
Bahl, Kevin $1,050,000$1,050,000 LD RFA - 2	Miller, Colin $1,850,000$1,850,000 RD UFA - 1

Scratches	Injured Reserve (IR)	Long Term IR (LTIR)
Tierney, Chris $775,000$775,000 C UFA - 1	Nosek, Tomas $1,000,000$1,000,000 LW, C UFA - 1
Smith, Brendan $1,100,000$1,100,000 LD/RD, LW UFA - 1

Taxi Squad
Nemec, Simon $918,333$918,333 ($0$0$0$0) ($3,250,000$3M) RD RFA - 3

Dec. 3, 2023 at 3:38 p.m.

SomeonesOffended

FKA Bigtittielarper

Joined: Jun. 2020

Posts: 7,728

Likes: 2,226

Not sure Gibson is the right move

Dec. 3, 2023 at 3:45 p.m.

NHLfan10506

Thread Starter

Joined: May 2019

Posts: 40,237

Likes: 18,368

Quoting: SomeonesOffended

Not sure Gibson is the right move

Why not?

Dec. 3, 2023 at 3:47 p.m.

SomeonesOffended

FKA Bigtittielarper

Joined: Jun. 2020

Posts: 7,728

Likes: 2,226

Quoting: NHLfan10506

Why not?

Cause he’s been just mediocre for a couple years there’s a lot of better options out there even Reimer for a 3rd would be better

Dec. 3, 2023 at 3:57 p.m.

NHLfan10506

Thread Starter

Joined: May 2019

Posts: 40,237

Likes: 18,368

Quoting: SomeonesOffended

Cause he’s been just mediocre for a couple years there’s a lot of better options out there even Reimer for a 3rd would be better

Hmm...I get what you are saying. But Reimer for 3rd is the type of trade you make when your back goes down. Gibson is the type of trade you make when you are resetting the position.

I think Gibson is better than mediocre...still borderline top-10.
And is 55-60 start workhorse...which when done well can give a young team consistency, confidence in net...which we haven't had since early Schneider.

Dec. 3, 2023 at 3:57 p.m.

GiggywithGibby

Future Ducks legend

Joined: Jun. 2022

Posts: 9,889

Likes: 6,679

Edited Dec. 3, 2023 at 4:36 p.m.

I don't see Gibson being made available, nor do I think Verbeek and ownership are willing to eat a significant chunk of salary for 3.5 years.

I do appreciate the effort you went to for your explanation and comps. Well thought out and reasoned.

Smitty426 liked this.

Dec. 3, 2023 at 3:58 p.m.

SomeonesOffended

FKA Bigtittielarper

Joined: Jun. 2020

Posts: 7,728

Likes: 2,226

Quoting: NHLfan10506

Top 20 would be generous

SociallyHawkward liked this.

Dec. 3, 2023 at 4:00 p.m.

JaredOfLondon

Joined: May 2019

Posts: 19,711

Likes: 7,378

Jersey trying to solve their goalie problem by getting someone who has been so horribly bad for so long would be very very very funny

SomeonesOffended and TyeZerker liked this.

Dec. 3, 2023 at 4:01 p.m.

JaredOfLondon

Joined: May 2019

Posts: 19,711

Likes: 7,378

Quoting: NHLfan10506

Gibson has been a bottom 5 starter by almost every metric for longer than most goalies have careers. And you cant blame the ducks being bad for that

SomeonesOffended liked this.

Dec. 3, 2023 at 4:02 p.m.

NHLfan10506

Thread Starter

Joined: May 2019

Posts: 40,237

Likes: 18,368

Quoting: JaredOfLondon

Gibson has been a bottom 5 starter by almost every metric for longer than most goalies have careers. And you cant blame the ducks being bad for that

Which metrics?

Dec. 3, 2023 at 4:06 p.m.

#10

JaredOfLondon

Joined: May 2019

Posts: 19,711

Likes: 7,378

Quoting: NHLfan10506

Which metrics?

pick one, sv%, HDSV%, Goals saved above expected, WAR, etc etc etc. He's been one of the major reasons the ducks have been so bad, not a victim of it

Dec. 3, 2023 at 4:27 p.m.

#11

NHLfan10506

Thread Starter

Joined: May 2019

Posts: 40,237

Likes: 18,368

Quoting: JaredOfLondon

pick one, sv%, HDSV%, Goals saved above expected, WAR, etc etc etc. He's been one of the major reasons the ducks have been so bad, not a victim of it

over last two years

HD Sv%
Kevin Lankinen: 0.854
Connor Hellebuyck 0.838
John Gibson: 0.837
Dan Vladar: 0.835
Carter Hart: 0.831
Stuart Skinner: 0.828
Sam Montembeault: 0.827
Alex Nedeljkovic: 0.824
David Rittich 0.821
Jacob Markstrom: 0.816
Petr Mrazek: 0.813
Eric Comrie: 0.808
Magnus Hellberg: 0.807
James Reimer: 0.801
Kaapo Kahkonen: 0.801
Jake Allen: 0.795
Akira Schmid: 0.794
Vitek Vanecek: 0.789
Cal Petersen: 0.789
Jack Campbell: 0.768

WAR
Connor Hellebuyck: 8.3
Stuart Skinner: 3.2
Sam Montembeault: 3.1
Carter Hart: 3.1
Vitek Vanecek: 2.7
Kevin Lankinen: 1.6
Jacob Markstrom: 1.1
John Gibson: 0.9
Akira Schmid: 0.9
Alex Nedeljkovic: 0.8
David Rittich: 0.6
Petr Mrazek: 0.3
Dan Vladar: -0.2
Jake Allen: -0.3
James Reimer: -0.3
Magnus Hellberg: -0.5
Cal Petersen: -1.3
Eric Comrie: -1.7
Kaapo Kahkonen: -2.2
Jack Campbell: -3.4

???

GiggywithGibby, GeneralLandro and zackhendo liked this.

Dec. 3, 2023 at 4:37 p.m.

#12

GeneralLandro

Joined: Jun. 2021

Posts: 15,447

Likes: 11,837

Quoting: GiggywithGibby

This

Dec. 3, 2023 at 4:38 p.m.

#13

JaredOfLondon

Joined: May 2019

Posts: 19,711

Likes: 7,378

Quoting: NHLfan10506

try over the last 5. He had a hot start this year and is falling to his regular spot rapidly
his WAR over the seasons
23/24: 0.54 (already pretty much halved from like 5 games ago)
22/23: -1.92
21/22: -0.26
20/21: -1.23
19/20: -3.0

SociallyHawkward and SomeonesOffended liked this.

Dec. 3, 2023 at 5:23 p.m.

#14

Shaners79

Joined: May 2016

Posts: 641

Likes: 187

I remember saying Gibson would have been the move I'd make when the Hellebuyck rumors were running rampant. We could have grabbed him in the off season.

NHLfan10506 liked this.

Dec. 3, 2023 at 6:11 p.m.

#15

NHLfan10506

Thread Starter

Joined: May 2019

Posts: 40,237

Likes: 18,368

Quoting: JaredOfLondon

Gibson WAR per Evolving Hockey
2023-24: 0.7
2022-23: 0.2
2021-22: 1.6
2020-21: 1.8
2019-20: 1.2

Also...its a number that tells us little unless you are comparing it to someone else...even if that is the current option

Vanecek
2023-24: -0.9
2022-23: 3.6

Blackwood
2022-23: 0.4
2021-22: -0.9
2020-21: 0.3
2019-20: 2.6

Also, its worth noting that Gibson has faced the 2nd most shots and most high danger shots (and 3rd highest % of shots being HD).

So for comparison, compare two guys...

Player X: 0.926 Sv%
Player Y: 0.907 Sv%

Player X: 27 shots per 60.... 7 high-danger, 7 medium, 4 off rebound
Player Y: 35 shots-per-60...11 high-danger, 9 medium, 5 off rebound

That is 8 more shots, 4 more high-danger shots a night for Player Y...

If you flipped them, and they still saved a similar % of various shots, their save% would be

Player X: 0.916 Sv%
Player Y: 0.914 Sv%

(Its Swayman and Gibson)

zackhendo liked this.

Dec. 3, 2023 at 6:32 p.m.

#16

JaredOfLondon

Joined: May 2019

Posts: 19,711

Likes: 7,378

Quoting: NHLfan10506

they have incredibly different numbers than both moneypuck, and they track with a few others, including the venerable jfresh cards
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F0M63vVXoAAV_yn.jpg:large
as far as comparing him to Blackwood and Vanecek....those guys are basically career backups with incredibly small runs of good.

For the Swayman/Gibson comparison I have no idea where you got those swayman numbers because ive checked a few places and he's never had a 926 sv%

Dec. 3, 2023 at 8:04 p.m.

#17

TyeZerker

Joined: Jul. 2023

Posts: 1,120

Likes: 164

NO thanks. Too much money for a goalie who is meh. You dont need a goalie that is expensive again look at Hill. Lyon,Riemer,Stolarz all "backup" just like Hill was but oh no look what happened HILL became the starter. Give me Thompson over Gibson, Thomps having better stats and swayman never had 926% his career average rn is 921%

Dec. 3, 2023 at 9:09 p.m.

#18

NHLfan10506

Thread Starter

Joined: May 2019

Posts: 40,237

Likes: 18,368

Quoting: TyeZerker

Vegas is parting with Thompson?

Dec. 4, 2023 at 3:31 a.m.

#19

zackhendo

VanFan12

Joined: Jun. 2021

Posts: 321

Likes: 98

I like this trade. I think value makes so much sense for both teams. Might as well give Vaneck in the trade though - Ducks likely need a goalie and I'm not sure you're giving him away for 'future considerations' otherwise - you're going to be paying to get rid of him.

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Forums/Armchair-GM

John Gibson

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Trades

NJD

ANA

NJD

ANA

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