Granlund TDL Discussion

Forums/Armchair-GM

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Created by: yikes

Team: 2023-24 San Jose Sharks

Initial Creation Date: Dec. 14, 2023

Published: Dec. 14, 2023

Salary Cap Mode: Basic

Description

Read the descriptions of the trades before referencing the actual trades - up for discussion not trades made as statements.

Free Agent Signings

RESERVE LIST		YEARS	CAP HIT
Gulyayev, Mikhail		1	$800,000

Trades

SJS

Granlunds first 13 games as a Shark were rocky, not amazing play and his totals:
13 games
4 assists
0 goals
10 pointless games

——

Grandlunds last 9 games, he’s looked phenomenal, his play starting improving right after the Grier locker room talk. It’s not just points it’s also how he looks. His totals:
9 games
15 points
5 multi point games (two 3 point games)
3 goals
1 pointless game

In 22 games Granlund has 19 points. He’s around (under tho) a 70 point pace. It Granlund is retained, @50%, he should return easily over a first+ at 2.5m aav for 1 more year (2 playoff runs).

Lars Eller (obviously a rounded player, not just points) had 16 points in 60 games. Returned a 2nd last TDL. Jordan Greenway had 7 points in 45 and returned OVER a 2nd.

Tyler Bertuzzi, had injury problems, was a UFA, and cost basically the same AAV as Granlund (but Granlund has 1 more year). Bertuzzi had 14 points in 30 games (obviously a different player). He received a first and fourth.

My guess is; I’d Granlund, let’s say reaches the TDL with the following Statline - which would have a slight reduction in his current performance/ pace included (to be safe):

Let’s say 50 games played (rested and needs some games for healing):
And let’s even reduce his points by a handful.

37 points in 50 games. 2 years/ 2 playoff runs @2.5m AAV. Plays center and wing, has shown speed and agility with some amazing play and puck work.

What teams are going to be willing to offer a first + prospect?
If you disagree sure but if all you say his “guy sucks” well his play suggests otherwise. So let’s discuss who and what?

COL

SJS

Gulyayev, Mikhail [Reserve List]
2024 1st round pick (COL)

Additional Details:

KHL won’t play till 2026

Not selecting any teams top 5 prospects.

Idk if the AV’s are going to be in the market to be big buyers, idk why just a gut feeling.

COL

Granlund 2.5m AAV x 2y

SJS

I like the NYR fit a lot. More then the AVs by a mile.
I think the Rags not only are going to be buyers, but they’re looking for a cup. The Metro is a gongshow (not in a positive way) and if they pull the Flyers they’re laughing to the 2nd round, basically a buy.

I’ve got 2 proposals for the Rangers.

NYR

Granlund 2.5m AAV x 2y

SJS

Sýkora, Adam
2024 2nd round pick (NYR)

Additional Details:

I think Grier would target Sykora, even take a discount. Let’s see how to make this work, a 1st and Sykora seems too costly, so a conditional 2nd to be a first if the Rangers make the SCF and Granlund players 50%?

NYR

Granlund 2.5m AAV x 2y

SJS

Goodrow, Barclay
2024 1st round pick (NYR)

Additional Details:

To be simple let’s keep the last trades framework. But now, let’s argue the Rangers want to move Goodrow, Granlund comes cheaper and better, and gives them a little $$$ to have more wiggle room in the offseason with resigning.
Now Goodrow never will be a waste in my eyes but financially he’s a burden if the Rangers also see they could use his term off the books. Now the Rangers need to add. Does this work better
Adam Sykora
*lottery protected 2024 first*
*Conditional 2024 2nd round pick (NYR) if the Rags make the ECF?*
Too much??

NYR

Granlund 2.5m AAV x 2y (50% retained)

SJS

COL

Gulyayev, Mikhail
2024 1st round pick (COL)

Additional Details:

I don’t think the AV’s want to bid with the Rangers. I think:

Goodrow
Sykora
Conditional 2nd
Protected first

Granlund 50% starts to make way more sense

SJS

Would they bid on Granlund?

VGK

SJS

Granlund also looks like a perfect fit here?
Would EDM try to make cap room?

EDM

Buyouts

Martin Jones: $2,916,667
Rūdolfs Balcers: $308,334

Retained Salary Transactions

Brent Burns: $2,720,000 (34%)
Erik Karlsson: $1,500,000 (13.04%)

Buried

Kevin Labanc: $3,575,000 ($4,725,000)
Radim Simek: $1,100,000 ($2,250,000)
Nikolai Knyzhov: $100,000 ($1,250,000)
Oskar Lindblom: $1,350,000 ($2,500,000)

Draft	Round 1	Round 2	Round 3	Round 4	Round 5	Round 6	Round 7
2024
2025
2026

ROSTER

LONG-TERM OUTLOOK

EMBED

TEXT-EMBED

ROSTER SIZE	SALARY CAP	CAP HIT	OVERAGES	BONUSES	CAP SPACE
21	$83,500,000	$82,014,168	$25,000	$1,145,000	$1,485,832

Left Wing	Centre	Right Wing
Duclair, Anthony $3,000,000$3,000,000 LW, RW UFA - 1	Granlund, Mikael $5,000,000$5,000,000 C, RW UFA - 2	Zetterlund, Fabian $1,450,000$1,450,000 RW RFA - 2
Eklund, William $863,333$863,333 ($850,000$850K) LW RFA - 3	Hertl, Tomas $6,750,000$6,750,000 C NMC UFA - 7	Barabanov, Alexander $2,500,000$2,500,000 RW, LW M-NTC UFA - 1
Hoffman, Mike $4,500,000$4,500,000 LW UFA - 1	Kunin, Luke $2,750,000$2,750,000 RW, C RFA - 1	Bailey, Justin $775,000$775,000 RW UFA - 1
Goodrow, Barclay $3,641,667$3,641,667 C, LW M-NTC UFA - 4	MacDonald, Jacob $762,500$762,500 LD/RD UFA - 1	Zadina, Filip $1,100,000$1,100,000 RW, LW RFA - 1

Left Defense	Right Defense	Goaltender
Ferraro, Mario $3,250,000$3,250,000 LD UFA - 3	Burroughs, Kyle $1,100,000$1,100,000 LD/RD UFA - 3	Kähkönen, Kaapo $2,750,000$2,750,000 G UFA - 1
Okhotiuk, Nikita $789,167$789,167 ($82,500$82K) LD RFA - 1	Rutta, Jan $2,750,000$2,750,000 LD/RD UFA - 2	Blackwood, Mackenzie $2,350,000$2,350,000 G UFA - 2
Thrun, Henry $912,500$912,500 ($212,500$212K) LD RFA - 1	Addison, Calen $825,000$825,000 RD RFA - 1

Scratches	Injured Reserve (IR)	Long Term IR (LTIR)
Smith, Givani $800,000$800,000 LW, RW UFA - 2	Vlasic, Marc-Édouard $7,000,000$7,000,000 LD/RD M-NTC UFA - 3
	Couture, Logan $8,000,000$8,000,000 C M-NTC UFA - 4
	Benning, Matthew $1,250,000$1,250,000 RD UFA - 3
	Sturm, Nico $2,000,000$2,000,000 C UFA - 2
	Emberson, Ty $775,000$775,000 RD RFA - 1
	Carpenter, Ryan $775,000$775,000 RW, C UFA - 1

Dec. 14, 2023 at 3:23 p.m.

TJTwolf

Joined: Jan. 2017

Posts: 9,606

Likes: 4,584

Easy no for the Avs at that price.

MeetYourMakar, Android_H_Jones, Anus_McLeod and 2 others liked this.

Dec. 14, 2023 at 3:24 p.m.

DRW2025

Joined: May 2023

Posts: 608

Likes: 134

He's probably worth a 2nd.

MeetYourMakar and Anus_McLeod liked this.

Dec. 14, 2023 at 3:24 p.m.

Rags21

Joined: Aug. 2021

Posts: 5,273

Likes: 2,303

I’d probably do the Goodrow trade. Maybe add another pick to try and get Barb/Duclair

Dec. 14, 2023 at 3:24 p.m.

yikes

Thread Starter

EklundCelebriniSmith

Joined: Sep. 2019

Posts: 10,093

Likes: 12,835

Quoting: TJTwolf

Easy no for the Avs at that price.

Yeah I stated in the post I don’t think the Avs are going to do anything major at TDL. They just seem more up in the air on what they’re shopping for

Dec. 14, 2023 at 3:25 p.m.

yikes

Thread Starter

EklundCelebriniSmith

Joined: Sep. 2019

Posts: 10,093

Likes: 12,835

Quoting: Rags21

I’d probably do the Goodrow trade. Maybe add another pick to try and get Barb/Duclair

I think SJS wants to keep Duke and the rangers don’t have many other picks to add to get Duke - felt too complicated without involving a quantity of picks/ another prospect.

Quoting: DRW2025

He's probably worth a 2nd.

Way worse players, less term, traded for more last year - so hard disagree if what I outlined happens with Granlund. Hes currently near a .90 pace and I reduced it to .73 to be modest, and removed more games of his totals for “injury/ healing time”. Bertuzzi had .50 and was a UFA for a first and fourth.

Dec. 14, 2023 at 3:30 p.m.

tjk

Loyal To The Oil

Joined: May 2023

Posts: 326

Likes: 124

I think you've severely overvalued Granlund. The best one is the Goodrow trade, but even still iffy with the 1st.

Xqb15a liked this.

Dec. 14, 2023 at 3:35 p.m.

yikes

Thread Starter

EklundCelebriniSmith

Joined: Sep. 2019

Posts: 10,093

Likes: 12,835

Edited Dec. 14, 2023 at 3:40 p.m.

Quoting: tjk

I think you've severely overvalued Granlund. The best one is the Goodrow trade, but even still iffy with the 1st.

How so? People always say these vague comments - probably don’t watch the Sharks games - and don’t have much to back it up?

I stated Grandlunds production reduces and he sits time for injuries.
.73 pace instead of his current .90 (I believe) so I’ve reduced his play, not overvalued or inflated it. And he’s still producing miles ahead of

Greenway (could not tell you where he’s even playing)
Bertuzzi (UFA)
Ellers (well rounded bottom 6 C)

Each returned over a 2nd. Bertuzzi was a UFA, played 29 games and still produced less than Granlund currently who still has months till the TDL. Granlunds been nothing short of a thrill to watch lately, earned the NHL star of the week (rightfully). Grandlund will be at 2.5m for 2 playoff runs.

Why should he be traded for less than Tyler Bertuzzi? Goodrows 3.6m x 4 years + a prospect who the Rangers don’t need, and a first for a non rental top 6 player? Seems very level to me.

If I had just said (no names)

The rangers dumped 15m, a good (but relatively expected to be a non heavy point producing winger) prospect, and a first for a top 6 player - .75 point pace - with 2 years and a 50% 2.5m AAV; wouldn’t you say that it seems level headed?

Dec. 14, 2023 at 3:39 p.m.

MeetYourMakar

Joined: Feb. 2020

Posts: 2,830

Likes: 2,481

You want two 1sts in value for a guy with 3 goals and last year had 10?

TJTwolf, tjk, swissmontana and 3 others liked this.

Dec. 14, 2023 at 3:40 p.m.

TheEarthmaster

Good Opinion Haver

Joined: Jun. 2018

Posts: 1,837

Likes: 939

There's a few caveats:

- Granlund has an extra year. Will that help or hurt his value, considering teams would have to fit him under the cap next year? He's not a pure rental like Eller, and it's harder to talk yourself into "untapped upside" like Greenway when the player will be 32 by the trade deadline.

- The Sharks have already used 2/3 of their retained salary slots. Retaining salary could make the extra year more palatable (and potentially drive up the price), but is it worth it for a tanking Sharks team to tie up all three of their retention spots next year to turn that 3rd into a 2nd, or a late 2nd into a late 1st?

- Hard for me not to draw comparisons between Ryan Dzingel his last year on the Sens and Granlund right now on the Sharks, which is to say that on bad teams, somebody is going to score the goals. Somebody is going to look like a top six player when really, maybe they're only a top six player because no one else is. And as soon as that player goes from a bad team to a good team, they're not getting that opportunity, and they're not going to be the big contributor they may have looked like. If I was an acquiring team it would be something I would keep in mind when a 31 year old who never cracked 70 points in his prime and looked washed last year is suddenly looking like a big piece again.

yikes, Anus_McLeod and TJTwolf liked this.

Dec. 14, 2023 at 3:42 p.m.

#10

yikes

Thread Starter

EklundCelebriniSmith

Joined: Sep. 2019

Posts: 10,093

Likes: 12,835

Edited Dec. 14, 2023 at 3:49 p.m.

Quoting: TheEarthmaster

All fair - what would you say changes in the deal/ value?
I think the Sharks should utilize all their tools to accelerate their rebuild. Have their 3rd spot used for 1 more year doesnr bother me if you improve the future.

Dec. 14, 2023 at 3:43 p.m.

#11

yikes

Thread Starter

EklundCelebriniSmith

Joined: Sep. 2019

Posts: 10,093

Likes: 12,835

Quoting: MeetYourMakar

You want two 1sts in value for a guy with 3 goals and last year had 10?

Quoting: MeetYourMakar

You want two 1sts in value for a guy with 3 goals and last year had 10?

https://www.capfriendly.com/forums/thread/685531

Dec. 14, 2023 at 3:44 p.m.

#12

Terrifiedofeveryone

Joined: May 2015

Posts: 371

Likes: 312

The Lars Eller comp is kind of misleading, as he is/was arguably the best defensive 3c in the league when he was traded for a second that was 2 years away. Granlund is very much a known commodity and I doubt he has more value than he was traded for at last year’s dealine - a mid/late second. A crazy 9-game sample isn’t going to change a GM’s evaluation of a 14-year career. The Rangers also aren’t going to add a 1st to Goodrow to get rid of him since the cap is going up and he has a pretty favorable buyout hit.

tjk, TJTwolf, swissmontana and 1 other person liked this.

Dec. 14, 2023 at 3:46 p.m.

#13

TJTwolf

Joined: Jan. 2017

Posts: 9,606

Likes: 4,584

Quoting: yikes

Yeah I stated in the post I don’t think the Avs are going to do anything major at TDL. They just seem more up in the air on what they’re shopping for

For the Avs he's a gamble band aid 2C if anything. They already have one of those that's arguably not working out and even with retention they'd have to dump cap. Anywhere else in the line up they have covered unless he can play RD. Benning is still the best match for the Avs from the Sharks imo and I'll die on that hill lol.

Android_H_Jones, MeetYourMakar and Burnzie8_88_4Cup liked this.

Dec. 14, 2023 at 3:46 p.m.

#14

yikes

Thread Starter

EklundCelebriniSmith

Joined: Sep. 2019

Posts: 10,093

Likes: 12,835

Quoting: Terrifiedofeveryone

In my other comments I outlined / plus the post - his play has looked exceptional. And I reduced his production in my suggested trade. So if he’s even at a worse production of 30 points in 50 games, (from .90 to .73 to even lower now);

Why would he go for less than some of the suggested trades seems very inconsistent/ hard to justify. Greenway had 7 points lol. Went for a 2nd. Bertuzzi had 15 and went for a first and fourth- was a UFA.

https://www.capfriendly.com/forums/thread/685531 Maybe an outlier but still an incredible return for NSH.

Why would a mid 6 / 2nd line C with 30 p in 50 g for a mid pick at 50% for 2 years?

Dec. 14, 2023 at 3:47 p.m.

#15

yikes

Thread Starter

EklundCelebriniSmith

Joined: Sep. 2019

Posts: 10,093

Likes: 12,835

Quoting: TJTwolf

Bennings injury troubles have bounced back and he’s back on the IR/ LTIR.

I’d say target Burroughs

Dec. 14, 2023 at 3:49 p.m.

#16

Terrifiedofeveryone

Joined: May 2015

Posts: 371

Likes: 312

Quoting: yikes

https://www.capfriendly.com/forums/thread/685531

Jeannot was a pending RFA with a totally different skillet, and the Lightning were going all-in to squeeze the last bit of their cup window out. It was also pretty widely viewed as a bad trade by the Lightning.

TJTwolf, MeetYourMakar and Xqb15a liked this.

Dec. 14, 2023 at 3:51 p.m.

#17

AStovetop

Stovetop

Joined: Jul. 2017

Posts: 1,990

Likes: 872

Quoting: tjk

I think you've severely overvalued Granlund. The best one is the Goodrow trade, but even still iffy with the 1st.

I think you're severely undervaluing him. I can guarantee anyone saying any of this is an overpay hasn't ACTUALLY watched him this year. OP has 50% retention ( which in reality kills any deal from the Sharks perspective) so having and high end PKer who produces at a 50-70 pt pace at 2.5 is probably the best contract in the league. Even if he drops off, with the cap is rising next year, 2.5 is a crazy small risk for a depth forward at worst, top 6 / 2C at best

yikes liked this.

Dec. 14, 2023 at 3:52 p.m.

#18

yikes

Thread Starter

EklundCelebriniSmith

Joined: Sep. 2019

Posts: 10,093

Likes: 12,835

Quoting: Terrifiedofeveryone

Doesn’t mean GMs think the same as a fan.

Nor does it benefit the argument of saying “3 goals” when Granlund is not a goal scorer/ Ovi. So you’re really outlining to yourself what needs to be said.

Granlund is not a goal scoring shooter, he brings a totally different skill set. He’s not one dimensional - so his goal total argument that they’re using/ your defending just looks silly now .

Dec. 14, 2023 at 3:53 p.m.

#19

yikes

Thread Starter

EklundCelebriniSmith

Joined: Sep. 2019

Posts: 10,093

Likes: 12,835

Quoting: AStovetop

I think you're severely undervaluing him. I can guarantee anyone saying any of this is an overpay hasn't ACTUALLY watched him this year. OP has 50% retention ( which in reality kills any deal from the Sharks perspective) so having and high end PKer who produces at a 50-70 pt pace at 2.5 is probably the best contract in the league. Even if he drops off, the cap is rising next year and 2.5 is a crazy small risk for a depth forward at worst, top 6 / 2C at best

Yeah but buddy your forgot fans only look at the Sharks standings when seeing a trade/ post about them.

All our opinions about the teams players we watched go 0-10-1 don’t matter cause they went 0-10-1 a month ago.

I’ve said it all over this page but this is a very modest post regarding Granlund following what I’ve outlined.

Dec. 14, 2023 at 3:55 p.m.

#20

TheEarthmaster

Good Opinion Haver

Joined: Jun. 2018

Posts: 1,837

Likes: 939

Quoting: yikes

All fair - what would you say changes in the deal/ value?

I don't mind the Rangers deal where Goodrow comes back, that makes a lot of sense to me if the Rangers are desperate to get out from under that deal (which they should be). If the Avs are going to trade a 1st+recently picked prospect, I wonder if they'll have other options available to them that make more sense. I think that price could pry away someone like Lindholm.

If the Sharks retain I think a 2nd-ish would be fair, if the sharks can take more money back that only helps.

Anus_McLeod liked this.

Dec. 14, 2023 at 3:59 p.m.

#21

Terrifiedofeveryone

Joined: May 2015

Posts: 371

Likes: 312

Quoting: yikes

You keep comparing totally different players to Granlund. Greenway, Bertuzzi, Eller, and Jeannot are all big, physical players, and Greenway/Jeannot had more team control. Also, Bertuzzi was four years younger at that time compared to Granlund now, and had 62 points in 68 hames the year before he was traded.

Dec. 14, 2023 at 3:59 p.m.

#22

yikes

Thread Starter

EklundCelebriniSmith

Joined: Sep. 2019

Posts: 10,093

Likes: 12,835

Quoting: TheEarthmaster

I just don’t see a world that a single 2nd for Granlund at 50% 2.5m aav mid 6C / 2C who PK’s and is multi dimensional is fair for San Jose. His plays been outstanding if we don’t even reference his production, just purely eye test. His term shouldn’t be a problem for the rangers for example because the rangers are still going to be win now next year. They’ll get over 5m from the deal in savings (including the rising cap).
I think if we’re just purely talking Granlund for a pick no team specific, I’ve outlined he regresses; he should go for around or atleast a first.

If Granlund keeps his production and pace - let’s say he’s at TDL with 55 points in 60 games… I mean this who post would look laughable in terms of undervaluing him.

Dec. 14, 2023 at 4:00 p.m.

#23

TJTwolf

Joined: Jan. 2017

Posts: 9,606

Likes: 4,584

Quoting: yikes

Bennings injury troubles have bounced back and he’s back on the IR/ LTIR.

I’d say target Burroughs

If he recovers by the TDL he should still be the target. The Avs are familiar with Burroughs and he's tough and actually wasn't all that bad in Denver and I was surprised he didn't get a bit more of a look. Benning, however, has the advantage of maybe being a decent RD for Byram going forward and being cheap when they almost certainly have to move Manson. Can you somehow hybridise the two over there and then trade them to us? LOL!

Dec. 14, 2023 at 4:01 p.m.

#24

Terrifiedofeveryone

Joined: May 2015

Posts: 371

Likes: 312

Quoting: yikes

I didn’t say anything about either player’s goal-scoring, I don’t know what that has to do with anything. I was arguing against comparing Jeannot and Granlund at all.

Dec. 14, 2023 at 4:04 p.m.

#25

yikes

Thread Starter

EklundCelebriniSmith

Joined: Sep. 2019

Posts: 10,093

Likes: 12,835

Quoting: Terrifiedofeveryone

Bertuzzi is an arguably a hurtful comparison for knocking Granlund, because Bertuzzi is performing even worse then last TDL. And he isn’t exactly a physical player fans just like to SAY he his; but I mean you’re seeing leafs fans realizing it too, he’s just kinda an energy guy not a bruiser.

Eller is actually a fine comparison and I outlined he’s a way more rounded player acknowledging he’s not a productive C, but doesn’t mean he’s not a good c. If Eller as a rental went for a 2nd and Granlund also performs well in both ends and producers way more - I again argue why should he NOT go for more then a 2nd at 50% for 2 years.

Jeannot is literally just a display of - just cause you think he’s not worth DOESNT mean the value isn’t out there for a player who’s viewed as desirable. And if you watched more than 3 sharks games you’d see why Granlund is being deployed so reliably by Quinn.

Greenway is literally brutal and went for a 2nd so ehh I think that again hurts the argument like Bertuzzi in reducing Granlunds value.

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