the big short

Forums/Armchair-GM

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Created by: MTLaveragefan

Team: 2023-24 Montreal Canadiens

Initial Creation Date: Jan. 22, 2024

Published: Jan. 22, 2024

Salary Cap Mode: Basic

Description

$$$$$

Investment opportunity - trying to predict the incoming crashes and down years.

Sending assets to a team for a 2025 or 2026 first round pick, in the hopes of cashing in latter - a trade derivative for the finance bros out there ;)

(not actually even close to a derivative, put for the sake of this AGM - I don't need a text in the comment explaining why i'm incorrect - I won't read it)

Targets?

- Pittsburg: old men signed to long contracts, no picks and no prospects... but they are trying one last push for a last dance (although, always dangerous to bet against Crosby);

- Washington: The glory days seem to be over and their prospect are 3 years out.

- Dallas is a hard bet - they have some youth coming up and some players in their prime.

ALL NTC OR NMC are waived in that scenario.

Trades

MTL

Carter, Jeff
2026 1st round pick (PIT)

Additional Details:

It's a gamble - but that 2026 first round pick has the chance to be top 10. The core will be 38 at that time.

PIT

Matheson, Michael

MTL

Kuznetsov, Evgeny
2024 3rd round pick (WSH)
2025 1st round pick (WSH)

WSH

MTL

2025 3rd round pick (COL)

Additional Details:

ANY TEAM looking for some goalie help at TD

COL

Allen, Jake ($1,850,000 retained)

Additional Details:

a 3rd is probably the price.

MTL

2026 1st round pick (DAL)

DAL

Savard, David

Buyouts

Karl Alzner: $833,333

Retained Salary Transactions

Joel Edmundson: $1,750,000 (50%)
Jeff Petry: $2,343,750 (50%)
Jake Allen: $1,850,000 (96.1%)

Draft	Round 1	Round 2	Round 3	Round 4	Round 5	Round 6	Round 7
2024
2025
2026

ROSTER

LONG-TERM OUTLOOK

EMBED

TEXT-EMBED

ROSTER SIZE	SALARY CAP	CAP HIT	OVERAGES	BONUSES	CAP SPACE
23	$83,500,000	$62,872,916	$1,170,000	$4,392,500	$20,627,084

Left Wing	Centre	Right Wing
Caufield, Cole $7,850,000$7,850,000 LW, RW UFA - 8	Suzuki, Nick $7,875,000$7,875,000 C UFA - 7	Slafkovsky, Juraj $950,000$950,000 ($3,500,000$4M) RW, LW RFA - 2
Newhook, Alex $2,900,000$2,900,000 C, LW RFA - 4	Kuznetsov, Evgeny $3,900,000$3,900,000 C M-NTC UFA - 2	Roy, Joshua $835,000$835,000 ($57,500$58K) LW, RW RFA - 3
Harvey-Pinard, Rafaël $1,100,000$1,100,000 LW, RW RFA - 2	Evans, Jake $1,700,000$1,700,000 C UFA - 2	Ylönen, Jesse $775,000$775,000 RW, LW RFA - 1
Armia, Joel $3,400,000$3,400,000 RW, LW UFA - 2	Carter, Jeff $3,125,000$3,125,000 RW, C NMC UFA - 1	Gallagher, Brendan $6,500,000$6,500,000 RW, LW M-NTC, NMC UFA - 4
Pezzetta, Michael $812,500$812,500 LW, RW UFA - 2	Stephens, Mitchell $775,000$775,000 C UFA - 1

Left Defense	Right Defense	Goaltender
Guhle, Kaiden $863,333$863,333 ($420,000$420K) LD/RD RFA - 2	Barron, Justin $925,000$925,000 ($275,000$275K) RD RFA - 1	Montembeault, Samuel $1,000,000$1,000,000 G UFA - 1
Struble, Jayden $867,500$867,500 ($57,500$58K) LD RFA - 2	Kovacevic, Johnathan $766,667$766,667 RD UFA - 2	Primeau, Cayden $890,000$890,000 G RFA - 2
Xhekaj, Arber $828,333$828,333 LD/RD RFA - 1	Mailloux, Logan $875,000$875,000 ($82,500$82K) RD RFA - 3
Harris, Jordan $1,400,000$1,400,000 LD/RD RFA - 2

Scratches	Injured Reserve (IR)	Long Term IR (LTIR)
	Pearson, Tanner $3,250,000$3,250,000 LW UFA - 1	Price, Carey $10,500,000$10,500,000 G NMC UFA - 3
	Wideman, Chris $762,500$762,500 RD UFA - 1	Dach, Kirby $3,362,500$3,362,500 C, RW RFA - 3
		Dvorak, Christian $4,450,000$4,450,000 C M-NTC UFA - 2

Jan. 22 at 9:41 a.m.

Subbanator7667

Subbanator

Joined: Jul. 2017

Posts: 7,362

Likes: 3,361

Pitt adds something small

Washington is far more likely to give up their 2024 1st if they know they're playoff bound, don't think they risk futures like that

Other two trades are probably about right depending on how the other teams view their cap space

Jan. 22 at 9:45 a.m.

MONSTER1974

Joined: Apr. 2017

Posts: 839

Likes: 177

A first round pick for Savard?

He’s a valuable commodity, but a first? I don’t think so.

By the way, I wouldn’t trade him. You can’t unload ALL the vets. You need to keep some of them around to chaperone the youngsters and support the young captain. Savard would stay unless wowed by an offer.

SomeonesOffended liked this.

Jan. 22 at 9:47 a.m.

MTLaveragefan

Thread Starter

I post sometimes

Joined: Jul. 2017

Posts: 5,757

Likes: 1,681

Quoting: MONSTER1974

I agree- I don't expect nor suggest that they should do all trades - mostly a question of discussing the "shorting" possibility.

There are always vets available on FA.

OldNYIfan liked this.

Jan. 22 at 9:47 a.m.

brgh4life

Joined: Jun. 2019

Posts: 2,705

Likes: 994

Pens needs are depth scorers and defensive first LD. Carter won't waive and this isn't a good price or fit for them.

OldNYIfan and SomeonesOffended liked this.

Jan. 22 at 9:47 a.m.

MTLaveragefan

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I post sometimes

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Edited Jan. 22 at 9:53 a.m.

Quoting: Subbanator7667

I wouldn't mind WSH's 2024 first round pick.

Subbanator7667 and OldNYIfan liked this.

Jan. 22 at 9:48 a.m.

HockeyManiac95

and proud of it

Joined: Feb. 2023

Posts: 2,256

Likes: 1,605

Yeah Allen is not my pick for the Avs, but we'll see

SomeonesOffended, M96N29 and TJTwolf liked this.

Jan. 22 at 9:52 a.m.

MTLaveragefan

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I post sometimes

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Quoting: brgh4life

Pens needs are depth scorers and defensive first LD. Carter won't waive and this isn't a good price or fit for them.

We have those as well. Harris or Struble could fit the bill (young with good skating as well).

OldNYIfan liked this.

Jan. 22 at 9:53 a.m.

MTLaveragefan

Thread Starter

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Joined: Jul. 2017

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Quoting: HockeyManiac95

Yeah Allen is not my pick for the Avs, but we'll see

It's an ANY team trade - but tagging COL always brings follks to the discussion

M96N29 and HockeyManiac95 liked this.

Jan. 22 at 9:54 a.m.

MONSTER1974

Joined: Apr. 2017

Posts: 839

Likes: 177

Quoting: MTLaveragefan

There are always vets available on FA.

But you overpay for those players on July1st

SomeonesOffended liked this.

Jan. 22 at 9:55 a.m.

#10

MTLaveragefan

Thread Starter

I post sometimes

Joined: Jul. 2017

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Likes: 1,681

Quoting: MONSTER1974

But you overpay for those players on July1st

Meh - we have cap space and we can take on vet cap dumps.

Jan. 22 at 10:05 a.m.

#11

brgh4life

Joined: Jun. 2019

Posts: 2,705

Likes: 994

Quoting: MTLaveragefan

We have those as well. Harris or Struble could fit the bill (young with good skating as well).

I like Harris. I think he would be a nice addition.

OldNYIfan and SomeonesOffended liked this.

Jan. 22 at 10:12 a.m.

#12

All_Knowing

Joined: Aug. 2020

Posts: 1,670

Likes: 1,044

Quoting: Subbanator7667

Quoting: MTLaveragefan

I wouldn't mind WSH's 2024 first round pick.

Caps pass

Definitely do not want Anderson (who is basically a cap dump - sorry MTL fans) and I'm just not a terribly big fan of Monahan. Agreed the Caps need to get rid of Kuzy, but would rather just buy him out at this point (rather than pay for someone to take him)

brady_t12, SomeonesOffended, jazzykiwi and 1 other person liked this.

Jan. 22 at 10:14 a.m.

#13

JuanDamienNebraska

Joined: Jan. 2023

Posts: 2,177

Likes: 1,134

That trade makes absolutely no sense for Pittsburgh for so many reasons that it’s not even worth typing them all out. Just know that it won’t happen.

SomeonesOffended liked this.

Jan. 22 at 10:18 a.m.

#14

brady_t12

Fantasy Hockey Pro

Joined: Jun. 2016

Posts: 5,114

Likes: 2,269

There's nothing in there warranting the caps giving up a first round pick. If the habs want a first for Monahan, that's not coming from DC.

SomeonesOffended, jazzykiwi, All_Knowing and 1 other person liked this.

Jan. 22 at 10:19 a.m.

#15

OldNYIfan

Once a Kings Fan Too

Joined: Jun. 2018

Posts: 40,328

Likes: 25,242

The strategy is entirely sound -- the question is whether you can implement it.

I had the same hopes for the Boston second and Pittsburgh third that the Ducks own. Well, the Pens pick may still wind up being in the top half of that round, but boy was I wrong about the Bruins pick!

SomeonesOffended and MTLaveragefan liked this.

Jan. 22 at 10:41 a.m.

#16

jazzykiwi

Joined: May 2022

Posts: 679

Likes: 235

Definitely not trading a 1st to dump kuzy. Anderson and kuzy swaps aren’t that far off in value. Kuzy has a higher hit sure but Anderson has more term

All_Knowing liked this.

Jan. 22 at 10:45 a.m.

#17

Bearshark91

Joined: Aug. 2020

Posts: 81

Likes: 41

That would be an absolute disaster of a trade for Washington

Jan. 22 at 11:02 a.m.

#18

MTLaveragefan

Thread Starter

I post sometimes

Joined: Jul. 2017

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Likes: 1,681

Quoting: All_Knowing

Fair enough - I was trying to get that one through - cap dump for cap dumps and monahan for a first. I think Anderson could fit the heavy style of WSH. But yeah, his play has not warranted the 5.5M$ he's paid.

At 3.5M$ people would not even talk about it - it's a 2M$ overpayment.

All_Knowing liked this.

Jan. 22 at 11:06 a.m.

#19

MTLaveragefan

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I post sometimes

Joined: Jul. 2017

Posts: 5,757

Likes: 1,681

Quoting: jazzykiwi

Definitely not trading a 1st to dump kuzy. Anderson and kuzy swaps aren’t that far off in value. Kuzy has a higher hit sure but Anderson has more term

So in theory - I could be made - especially when by the end of Anderson's contract - the team will probably enter a rebuild phase anyway. so the the longterm investment is not that bad and offset by the cap increase.

While freeing 2.5M$ from Kuzy helps, on the short term, to acquire assets for a final push with Ovy.

Jan. 22 at 11:08 a.m.

#20

MTLaveragefan

Thread Starter

I post sometimes

Joined: Jul. 2017

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Likes: 1,681

Quoting: Bearshark91

That would be an absolute disaster of a trade for Washington

Well that's the point in some way... Like the Shark deal with OTT which ended up being the 3rd overall pick.

it's banking on a team failing hard and profiteering from their future first round pick.

There are GMs who are shortsighted when it comes to extenting the window an extra year... which ends up hurting the franchise more in the long run.

Jan. 22 at 2:47 p.m.

#21

HockeyManiac95

and proud of it

Joined: Feb. 2023

Posts: 2,256

Likes: 1,605

Quoting: MTLaveragefan

It's an ANY team trade - but tagging COL always brings follks to the discussion

Ofc

MTLaveragefan liked this.

Jan. 22 at 3:13 p.m.

#22

jazzykiwi

Joined: May 2022

Posts: 679

Likes: 235

Quoting: MTLaveragefan

Kuzy will cost 7.8 mil next season. Anderson will cost 16.5 mil over the next 3 seasons. The Habs would need to pay the caps to get out of that contract. You don’t trade a 1 year anchor for a 3 year anchor in order to save 2.5 mil next year. And monahan isn’t worth a 1st regardless of kuzy/anderson

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Forums/Armchair-GM

the big short

Description

Trades

MTL

PIT

MTL

WSH

MTL

COL

MTL

DAL

Buyouts

Retained Salary Transactions

Embed Code

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Question:

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