Chicago is thin on the right side and Murphy is part of their leadership core. I highly doubt he's on the market because his value to the rebuild far outweighs his value on the open market. I think it takes a massive overpayment to acquire him without retention. With retention costs even more.

Probably more than TOR wants to give up.

Dumba at 50% is probably a 2nd, TOR doesnt have one, so its a 1st, Bjugstad is a 3rd and 5th at least

Murphy is a 1st (think more than McCabe)

Laughton is a 1st, Walker is a 1st

Duclair and Rutta are 2 guys TOR shouldnt want, but I'd say a 3rd and 5th for duclair and a 3rd (maybe) for rutta

Doesn;t matter because theres really two problems:

The seller sets the market more than the buyer
TOR lacks quality picks, just 2 1sts in next 3 drafts, no 2nds, all picks late in the round, limited pool of prospects they wont want/shouldnt want to give up

(The price of previous TDL purchases)

First off - I don’t think Murphy is who the Leafs should target. But having said that, Hawks are 32nd in a 32 team league. They specifically brought in vets to “shield” the rookies - I would trade anyone of value over 25 & then sign vets on one or two year deals in FA over summer (like Foligno & Perry this summer). Competitive window is 3-5 years away so keeping Murphy - if he has much value, which we probably would disagree on - is not good strategy imo

I would probably lean more on Mitch Junior’s side. Murphy is in his 30s already and getting assets for him now while signing a UFA defenseman costing only cash in the off-season is a better use of assets. Chicago is years away from being competitive

Pacioretty and Edmundson probably cost somewhere around a 3rd or 4th each, although Pacioretty likely doesn't waive for Toronto unless he just really wants a shot at a cup and believes they have it this year.

The thing with Murphy, is that you are basically buying cap space in the deal similar to the McCabe trade which netting Chicago 1st and 2nd rounders. To retain half on Murphy, according to the puck pedia tool 2,200,000x2YL it costs an early 2nd round pick (35 overall). Now considering he is a RHD with above average defense and capable puck moving ability, Toronto would need to add significantly to get him for two playoff runs. I don’t think the Hagel trade would be an unfair comparison as far as pure value.

I can see where both of your assessments are coming from. Had this been last year or two years ago I would have agreed. Management have targeted specific guys to help lay the foundation. Guys like Foligno, Hall, Mrazek, and yes Murphy. Late 1st round picks (which buying teams have to offer) aren't usually a guarantee and typically high risk high reward type guys. For Chicago we're talking guys like Jokiharu, Beaudin, and Hartman. Maybe they pan out like Hartman and maybe they fade into obscurity like Beaudin or maybe they end up fringe NHL'ERS like Joker. The value with Chicago's veterans is they're buying into what the coaching staff is selling. They're working hard and leading by example. Murphy is providing a solid partner for Korchinshi. Well he was before getting injured. They know what they have in their vets and to a team in search of an identity, that's more valuable than the draft capital now.

Plus this team should be a bubble team in the next 2 years imo. Call it being optimistic if you want but I really believe they're a few forwards away from knocking on the door of the playoffs. Not saying they'll be a playoff team in two years but they'll be close.

That’s fair; I said competitive window in 3-5 years so we’re aligned. I mean the NHL is set up to ensure, almost enforce, parity so if you can’t build a competitive team after years of high draft picks (including a generational talent drafted 1st overall) then your GM should be fired. But it’s looking positive.
Just my opinion - but I never understand some fans that want to keep veterans because they are good locker room guys. If I were a GM - anyone on my roster that doesn’t fit with our expected window of contention would be moved for assets and I’d sign “good, veteran pros” on short term deals to mentor the kids.