What kinda basis is this? Minten isn’t eligible to play in the AHL since he’s too young and he’s already cracked an opening night roster in the NHL at a younger age than Gaucher.
Now I’m not the biggest fan of Minten either, Leafs fans obviously overhype a lot of their prospects, but if you’ve actually watched the two of them play you’d see a major difference in their games. Minten is a much better skater that’s more of a defence first type of guy with some secondary offence projected. His floor is projected to be a 3rd line winger, but his ceiling is a 2nd line centre. Gaucher needs to improve his skating and isn’t much of an offensive contributor. He’s physical which bodes him well for a role player in the NHL but not much more. His floor is a AHL 2nd liner and his ceiling is a NHL 4th liner. If you even look at their junior numbers you can see the comparison favours Minten:
Minten: 1.13ppg career
Gaucher: 0.79ppg career
Hard to argue in anyway that Gaucher is the better prospect without any bias to the opinion.

You asked for the basis for my reasoning. My reply was and is that I have no reason yet to believe that Minten can play in the AHL, let alone the NHL, whereas I have a factual basis for believing that Gaucher can do both. I'm sorry if that is insufficient for you.

If you don't think that demonstrated performance (n however small a sample size) at a higher level is a reasonable basis for an evaluation, fine.

Sam Steel averaged 1.78 PPG in the last two seasons of his junior career. What's your point?

Sorry, but it kind of is. Not your reply - you did answer exactly what I asked. I just don't agree with that process of evaluation.

You have every right to your opinion of course, but the foundation of that opinion is incredibly feeble. The declaration of one prospect as "far better" based on a lack of knowledge of how the other would perform at a separate sub-NHL level due to an age discrepancy - especially when we have a direct level comparison between the two where they performed similarly (the edge even going to Minten) - is just unfounded to me.

And let's not forget Minten did, in fact, make the NHL out of camp and showed he was capable of playing at this level but was sent down for developmental reasons.

The point is that you unfairly compared the two prospects and your only basis was that you’ve seen Gaucher play AHL games and Minten hasn’t. Which is 100% unfair because Minten isn’t eligible for the AHL. But hey, if Gaucher is the much better prospect then how come only one of those players has played NHL games already and it’s not Gaucher.

You’re too bias on the situation. Gaucher is not the better prospect.

First of all, I think that you guys have subconsciously misconstrued what I said, which is that I believe that Gaucher is a better prospect than Minten. That term I understand to mean "is ahead of him in development and has a better chance of reaching the NHL." You guys sound to me like you have turned that around (at least mentally) to an assertion that Minten will fail. That isn't anything close to what I said, let alone believe.

My premise is a simple one; maybe simple-minded: if Prospect A is ahead of Prospect B in their development, then by definition Prospect A is the "better" prospect (i.e., more likely to reach the NHL) unless the difference between them is so obvious that no one could dispute the contrary conclusion (as, for example, the difference between Collin Graf or Cutter Gauthier vs. Nick Abruzzese). Whether that disparity in development is due to age, injury or illness is irrelevant, although to you two it seems to be definitive. To say that Prospect A is a better prospect than Prospect B right now isn't close to saying that Prospect A will ultimately be a more productive or more valuable player when they reach the same level of competition; your conflation of the two statements is reading something into my opinion that simply isn't there.

I wouldn't put too much stock in their respective junior careers or the fact that Minten has been brought up this season. Max Comtois scored a goal in the first 15 seconds that he was ever on the ice and led his entire team in scoring in the pandemic year. Nevertheless, I hope that both youngsters have great success at the next level.

Maybe that’s true of someone else, but I have zero hate for the Leafs. Heck I’m rooting hard for Matthews to keep scoring, I was hoping he’d hit the 70 mark.

I’m not saying this because I have some vendetta against the leafs, I’m a Ducks fan. We don’t play many meaningful games against each other. I’m saying it because of the valuations I’ve seen leafs fans place on pieces like Robertson, Lilj, Abruz over the past few years. Thats really it

I think your argument is missing the mark pretty hard. The Ducks are building around Leo, McT, Minty, Zell, and Dostal. There’s nothing to realize.

Not every player needs to be the cornerstone that the team is built upon. EDM isn’t building around Hyman, but they re super thankful they have his production.

Without a second thought I take Zegras as an offensive producer that we don’t ’build around’ over a pick that won’t play in the NHL for like 5 years, Minton who tops out as a 3C, and Cowan who’s absolute ceiling is on the 2nd line. You recognize that not a single one of them are players to build around either, right? Call me crazy but I prefer our guy who proved top 6 NHL talent at 20-22 years old.. twice

I don't think I misconstrued that at all, nor did I turn your words into an assertion that Minten will fail. You never once said that and I never indicated that you had.

I just have different views on both your definition of what makes a prospect "better" and what you consider a disparity in development.

The evaluation of a prospect by it's very nature is based on future projection, and thus, to say one is a "far better" prospect, is to say their future is clearly more promising.

"To say that Prospect A is a better prospect than Prospect B right now isn't close to saying that Prospect A will ultimately be a more productive or more valuable player when they reach the same level of competition; your conflation of the two statements is reading something into my opinion that simply isn't there."

This, I think, is where we differ. There is no misplaced conflation here. Those two statements are the same. Unless perhaps you're using "prospect" (bolded) where you should just be using "player" which is an important distinction. One is about NHL projection and all that which it encompasses, the other is strictly about the present.

And as far as whether Gaucher is the better player right now and this supposed disparity in development - I don't see any evidence for either. Development is not linear and every player has an individual path. Simply playing in the AHL because you're allowed to absolutely does not make you a better player or prospect and is essentially meaningless when it comes to who's ahead in development. Cases are completely individual. Would Minten be playing in the AHL if he were allowed? Maybe. Or maybe they Leafs development staff decides it's best for him to play more minutes and get a bigger role with more puck touches back in junior to better hone certain parts of his game. One is not better than the other.

Other than everyone is entitled to an opinion - how do you honestly make such statements as Cowan’s ceiling is 2nd line ? Minten at 3C - I buy but Cowan is lighting the major junior league on fire; one year after being a surprise late 1st rounder. His upward trajectory is amazing and he’s put himself in conversation as best player in major junior this year. That is some rare air, usually reserved for stars / superstars. Who knows what level he ends up getting to, but unfair and uniformed to place arbitrary caps on his potential already. Seems like you do have an agenda against Leaf prospects

What is it about you guys thinking the world has it out for you? I just addressed the same comment in this same thread. I’m a Ducks fan, what beef do I have with the Leafs? I’m super pro-Matthews and hope he does well, always loved Nylander and was hoping his contract asks were gonna lead him to FA so we could make a run at him. Honestly maybe the last 20 minutes of you guys thinking anyone with a take that isn’t exactly what you want to hear must just have it out for your team is about the only turn off I have to TOR. My hate is reserved for SJ, LAK, and EDM

Cowan is having a solid season don’t get me wrong. But he’s also like 6 points ahead of Greentree in his draft year, and Greentree is still only like a 10-13 OA pick in a somewhat weak draft year, especially at fwd. I’d love to have Cowan in ANA’s system. But yeah his trajectory (while solid) seems like that of someone who tops out on the 2nd line.

Minten is a D+1 pt per game WHL player. Thats some 3rd line stuff as I see it

Could I be wrong about both of them? 1,000%. But that’s just how it looks with no bias for or against them from the outside looking in. These guys would need to be on 60+ point NHL paces the season after next to match Zegras’ development. I just don’t see either of them coming close to that

Zegras wouldn't get Knies straight up.

Cowan missed more than a month of ohl season (Leafs + world jrs); he’s 2nd in ppg with 95% coming at even strength or short handed. He had 36 game point streak - same level as Crosby & Bedard. Is he that good? Prob not, but just weird that some body would claim he’s 2nd line at best when all evidence and recent development trajectory to the contrary 🤷🏻.
I get the Ducks have strong prospect pool - I hope so b/c the nhl team is not good and has been collecting high picks - but you’re like a lot of people on this site. I just wondered if you based you opinion off anything other than an inherent bias against anything Leafs related

Leaf fans already think Minten and Cowan are going to the Hall of fame so I doubt they trade them

Sure SJ will take Kampfdump and the mascot if you give us a 1st