No Marner unless its for cheap

Forums/Armchair-GM

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Created by: Kyle_Davidson

Team: 2024-25 Chicago Blackhawks

Initial Creation Date: May 5, 2024

Published: May 5, 2024

Salary Cap Mode: Basic

Description

Would I love to have a playmaker like Marner to play with Bedard? Yes, obviously acquiring him has the potential to accelerate the rebuild… but we still need to understand that we are in a rebuild. If I am Kyle Davidson, and my username seems to suggest I am, then a Marner trade is not going to change the immediate course of the franchise. As of this post, he is 27 years old, and conservatively I would suggest the hawks are around 2 years away from entering their playoff contention phase. If he signed a long term, big money extension with the hawks we could probably expect 4 years of him playing at a superstar level for us on the contract before starting to limit our flexibility. Marner is a great regular season player, with playoff concerns, who by all accounts only slightly aligns with our window.

The assists im willing to give up for Marner would exclude
Bedard
Korchinsky
Nazar
Vlasic
Oliver Moore
Sam Rinzel

Outside of that group I would listen on a lot of players if they interested Toronto that includes
NHL vets not apart of the headship group/that have NMC… so Toronto could have (Hall, AA, Murphy, Donato) but not (Foligno, Jones, Dickinson, Mrazek)

NHL ready prospects : Reichel / Kaiser / Slaggert

AHL prospects soon to be NHL ready C Dach, Nolan Allan, Ethan Del Maestro

Or any combination of draft picks / project prospects that Toronto would be interested in excluding Chicago's own first round picks. In that sense there is a lot available for Toronto in a Mitch Marner trade, but not the high value stuff they would ask for. One benefit of trading with Chicago is their ability to eat the while contract without sending anyone back, which would allow for the leafs to reshape their team through FA.

As an end to my stream on consciousness for this post,I still believe that throwing a bunch of assets at Toronto for Mitch Marner is to far from Davidsons rebuild plan. It would help in the short term, but likely limit our ability to maintain success. I would much rather take these assets to Carolina for Necas.

Free Agent Signings

RFA		YEARS	CAP HIT
Reichel, Lukas		1	$2,100,000

UFA		YEARS	CAP HIT
Tanev, Christopher		2	$6,500,000

Trades

CHI

Marner, Mitchell

TOR

2024 2nd round pick (LAK)
2024 3rd round pick (OTT)
2025 1st round pick (TOR)

Additional Details:

Not a projected trade, read the description.

Buyouts

Josh Bailey: $1,166,667

Retained Salary Transactions

Jake McCabe: $2,000,000 (50%)

Draft	Round 1	Round 2	Round 3	Round 4	Round 5	Round 6	Round 7
2024
2025
2026

ROSTER

LONG-TERM OUTLOOK

EMBED

TEXT-EMBED

ROSTER SIZE	SALARY CAP	CAP HIT	OVERAGES	BONUSES	CAP SPACE
20	$83,500,000	$75,104,667	$0	$6,757,500	$8,395,333

Left Wing	Centre	Right Wing
Kurashev, Philipp $2,250,000$2,250,000 LW, C, RW RFA - 1	Bedard, Connor $950,000$950,000 ($3,500,000$4M) C RFA - 2	Marner, Mitchell $10,903,000$10,903,000 RW NMC UFA - 1
Hall, Taylor $6,000,000$6,000,000 LW M-NTC, NMC UFA - 1	Nazar, Frank $950,000$950,000 ($900,000$900K) RW, C RFA - 2	Reichel, Lukas $2,100,000$2,100,000 LW, C RFA - 2
Dach, Colton $825,000$825,000 ($82,500$82K) C RFA - 2	Dickinson, Jason $4,250,000$4,250,000 C, LW UFA - 2	Athanasiou, Andreas $4,250,000$4,250,000 LW, RW UFA - 1
Foligno, Nick $4,500,000$4,500,000 LW, C, RW UFA - 2	Donato, Ryan $2,000,000$2,000,000 LW, C, RW UFA - 1	Slaggert, Landon $912,500$912,500 ($850,000$850K) LW RFA - 1

Left Defense	Right Defense	Goaltender
Vlasic, Alex $4,600,000$4,600,000 LD UFA - 6	Jones, Seth $9,500,000$9,500,000 RD NMC UFA - 6	Mrázek, Petr $4,250,000$4,250,000 G UFA - 2
Korchinski, Kevin $918,333$918,333 ($1,000,000$1M) LD RFA - 2	Tanev, Christopher $6,500,000$6,500,000 RD UFA	Söderblom, Arvid $962,500$962,500 G RFA - 1
Kaiser, Wyatt $916,667$916,667 ($425,000$425K) LD RFA - 1	Murphy, Connor $4,400,000$4,400,000 RD M-NTC UFA - 2

Taxi Squad
Del Mastro, Ethan $855,833$855,833 ($0$0$0$0) ($57,500$58K) LD RFA - 2

May 5 at 9:51 a.m.

Leafsfan98

Leafs going to Leafs

Joined: Dec. 2022

Posts: 10,191

Likes: 3,093

Would you be willing to move your 24 or 25 1st?

May 5 at 9:58 a.m.

Kyle_Davidson

Thread Starter

Kyle from Chicago

Joined: Feb. 2018

Posts: 9,949

Likes: 5,964

Quoting: Leafsfan98

Would you be willing to move your 24 or 25 1st?

Not Chicagos own first round pick. It would be shortsighted to do so. TBL 24 or TML 25 are available.

May 5 at 9:58 a.m.

Snowhawk18

Snowhawk

Joined: Jul. 2022

Posts: 2,552

Likes: 3,699

Quoting: Leafsfan98

Would you be willing to move your 24 or 25 1st?

He states in the dialogue above that the Hawks own 1st round picks are off the table.

Personally I wouldn’t trade for Marner, I would wait for him to hit FA and pursue him at that time if he is available. I would rather see the Hawks go after someone like Teravainen.

That is also way too much to pay for a 34 year old defensive d-man.

Hawksguy81 and Garak liked this.

May 5 at 9:59 a.m.

Leafsfan98

Leafs going to Leafs

Joined: Dec. 2022

Posts: 10,191

Likes: 3,093

Quoting: Kyle_Davidson

Not Chicagos own first round pick. It would be shortsighted to do so. TBL 24 or TML 25 are available.

Got that...

May 5 at 10:00 a.m.

Leafsfan98

Leafs going to Leafs

Joined: Dec. 2022

Posts: 10,191

Likes: 3,093

Quoting: Snowhawk18

He states in the dialogue above that the Hawks own 1st round picks are off the table.

Personally I wouldn’t trade for Marner, I would wait for him to hit FA and pursue him at that time if he is available. I would rather see the Hawks go after someone like Teravainen.

That is also way too much to pay for a 34 year old defensive d-man.

I missed it... My bad

Snowhawk18 and Garak liked this.

May 5 at 10:03 a.m.

CoachQ

Joined: Jul. 2015

Posts: 156

Likes: 104

Excellent synopsis of the Hawks current position. Very realistic approach.

Kyle_Davidson, Hawksguy81, Snowhawk18 and 1 other person liked this.

May 5 at 10:27 a.m.

Lancebmx

Joined: Oct. 2020

Posts: 10,774

Likes: 8,333

From an outside perspective I would look at Hall, Murphy, Del Mastro/ Kaiser (whoever they prefer), TB 1st, Toronto 2026 2nd. Ideally a bit of retention on one of Hall or Murphy. Even without the retention the cap is basically the same.

May 5 at 10:28 a.m.

Hawksguy81

Joined: Nov. 2022

Posts: 9,138

Likes: 11,115

Without an extension in place, your list of available assets is a whole lot smaller in my opinion. None of the 1st's. No DelMastro or Dach. Best I'm doing is Reichel and a couple of 2nd's.

Snowhawk18, ChiHawk, Garak and 1 other person liked this.

May 5 at 10:32 a.m.

palhal

LongtimeLeafsufferer

Joined: Jul. 2015

Posts: 60,251

Likes: 23,113

Here's my theory why Marner can't/won't be traded.
Marner is not going to waive to team without a superior centre so he can keep his good numbers in contract season
Marner would likely waive if he a new contract from his new team
Most teams are at the cap, so then it's few teams that can fit in Marner 11m 24/25 contract and even his new contract. So, that gets really complicated, so teams would rather just wait a year and see how their cap is in 25/26 for all UFAs.
The Hawks, Utah, Ducks are the few teams that could take on Marner's cap immediately. But why? Would they give up anything substancial when they will have their pick of players to spend 11 m as UFAs next season or the season after? Unlikely. And since the Leafs are in win mode, they would like a nice return for Marner even for one season.
The Leafs are still in win mode for 24/25

But if I was GM of the Leafs....here's would my take. If Marner was willing to waive, (to any team), I wouldn't worry about the return so much. The "return" is having 11m cap freed up for 24/25.
Having 11m on the team forces the Leafs to have for example an 11m winger and 1m Dman....total of 12m
Maybe the Leafs would be better sign three UFAs, let's say a 5m Toffelli for three years, 4.5m Tanev for three years, 2.5m Luybushkin for two years, instead of 11m Marner for one year and one year of 1m Timmins. The return for Marner, shouldn't be the deciding factor. It's the players replacing 11m Marner....does it make the Leafs better in 24/25 and some following years.
The return of Marner,,,,,doesn't matter that much.

Kyle_Davidson, Garak and Hawksguy81 liked this.

May 5 at 11:33 a.m.

#10

Jco5ta5

Hawks Fan

Joined: Jul. 2019

Posts: 2,677

Likes: 1,713

I love Marner and would gladly accept him. I just posted in a TML post Reichel + prospect + TML 1st 2025 for Marner + extension.

I think Marner is a guaranteed 85-100 points per season player and Reichel is still iffy. If he flames out this trade could be a steal. If he hits then even trade for both teams.

Lots of “ifs” here but imagine having Celebrini and Marner coming in with Hall back in lineup next year. Offense could be potent and good enough to steal games. Accelerates the rebuild by 1 year.

If they get Demidov then Marner - Bedard - Demidov is gonna be nutso (when he’s available)

Matt8330 liked this.

May 5 at 11:33 a.m.

#11

Garak

Joined: Jun. 2019

Posts: 11,377

Likes: 11,381

Edited May 5 at 2:20 p.m.

Interesting and realistic take. But, as you allude to in the description, CHI should not even consider trading assets for players like Marner with or without an extension in place. It just doesn't make sense. I'd consider making a big offer for a guy like Jarvis, or another player of a similar age and caliber. But for these late 20's superstar caliber pending UFA's, CHI just isn't there yet. We'd probably end up squandering their best years and they would become cap problems by the time CHI is actually ready to contend.

Hawksguy81 and Snowhawk18 liked this.

May 5 at 2:47 p.m.

#12

Ryminister_92

Joined: May 2023

Posts: 2,098

Likes: 825

Marner doesn’t have any incentive to really waive his NMC for Chicago. They’re still not close to contending, and it’s not a tax free state. So why would he waive? If the only reason you’re thinking is to play with Bedard well he can play with other good players that are on contending teams.

That being said.. let’s hypothetically say he waived for Chicago, something could work with the teams but you’d have to widen your parameters a bit. Marner won’t come “cheap” but Toronto will be selling him at his all time low so don’t expect a huge haul. They’re going to fill at least one of their major holes by moving him being either a quality middle 6 centre with offensive upside, or a top 4 right handed defender with size. Since Chicago doesn’t have a quality middle 6 centre outside of Bedard, that’s off the table and leaves the defender.

I’d propose something like:

Chicago Blackhawks

Marner (no extension in place)

Toronto Maple Leafs

Jones
Reichel
Chicago’s own 2025 2nd round pick

I know you mentioned that you wouldn’t move the leadership group and Jones was part of that - but in order to get good players you’ve gotta move something that you don’t want sometimes and Jones makes a ton of sense for Toronto and fills a huge need. I’d argue that if Jones isn’t part of the deal then Toronto walks away from the deal and finds someone else Marner would waive for

Edit: I’d think that Chicago takes a hard look at a right handed defender in the draft and there’s a couple good ones available around their pick so it makes the loss of Jones easier for the future if they picked one

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