Trading for goalies is dumb, especially when you're trading your elite 2C for one

Dobson is not getting traded at all, much less for a UFA rental.

Is he really "elite" anymore?

No way the Isles take on 7m in cap, for a one year rental. Interesting that you can get an asset for 2.4m Kampf but sign another centre Stenland for 1.8m
Wouldn't the Bruins be better keeping 5m Ullmark and signing Lindholm for 7.5m than one year of JT and the first.

both Dobson and Marner have 1 year left. If they anticipate keeping Dobson, he's going to get 8-9M

Tavares's AAV is 11 million who is taking on 2 million plus another team taking 2 million to make his Cap Hit be 7 million? Numbers do not add up

Yet

LA got bounced easy because of their mediocre goaltending in the playoffs

Toronto lost to an inferior talent team because of goaltending.

Jersey looked liked a team who was ready for a coronation of whose next who was derailed by mediocre goaltending

Ottawa and Detroit got sunk by mediocre goaltending

Sure, there are outliers who buck the likely scenario (like all positions), but most teams that try to go cheap at goalie pay for it. Of all fan bases who should know this. I’d assume it’s Toronto. How many second tier guys do you pursue before you realize it won’t work

No one with cap room is taking Tavares at 11M. Maybe at full retention, he has value. My guess is he tries to leverage an extension to get him to waive and he won’t want to take the salary needed for a team to consider that.

Dobson has two years of control.....Marner only one. With Dobson the Isles have some say in years of control with an extension, with Marner the Isles don't have nearly as much control.
Sorry, it's a one sided traded in favour of the Leafs.

UFA vs. RFA

Marner negotiated his NMC. Most players will look at this and decide that if this team does not want me, I want to go to a team that I can help win the Cup. He doesn't have to go to a team that happens to have cap space. He can make that decision on his own as a UFA next year.
When you start thinking like this, then you start eliminating other bottom teams. Once you do that, you are left with teams that probably don't have much cap space themselves. The only way they trade for a $11M contract is by taking one of their bad contracts off their hands. They will not trade you a couple of players that are playing above their salaries (you need half of your roster doing that to be successful).

What does that leave you? Maybe Marner to LA for Dubois (they may have to kick in some filler, but not one of their high end young studs. How about Cam Talbot?

LA lost because they got dominated on special teams (0% PP, 55% PK). Same with Toronto + mid 5v5 defense and poor finishing. Ottawa and Detroit both had bad 5v5 play coupled with bad goaltending. Goaltending matters, but it's less important than the T9F & T4D + the 5v5 game

Yes. Consistently wins his minutes (xGF%, GF%, corsi etc.), puts up 30 goals and 60+ points, can drive a line, all while taking on the hardest matchups every game

Poor finishing is a nice excuse for good goaltending BTW (if you look at GSAX) and the goaltenders importance on the powerplay is difficult to minimize.

It’s as if Jeremy Swayman had only a little to do with Toronto’s finishing rate. IMO, Jeremy Swayman was the primary reason Boston beat Toronto. Disagree?

I get because there are less goalies on a roster than forward, your quality in the mid 50th percentile is a better player than a center in the mid 50th

My perspective is Toronto had a better overall roster, but lost because Jeremy Swayman significantly outplayed your tenders.

Yeah I agree with this mostly