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Arh613

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Oct. 8, 2021
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Buffalo Sabres
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Forum: Armchair-GMOct. 18, 2022 at 4:26 p.m.
Thread: Get Power a Partner - Rework the Lines
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>gretzkyghosts</b></div><div>Last season the Panthers out scored the Sabres 15 - 7 during the last two months of the season when the Sabres were playing well.
The Sabres never gave up and were in the game right up to the very end.
Two games into an NHL season and ten games into Powers NHL career we are going to panic about the play of a 19 year old LHD.
When Don Granato gives him less ice time, we can discuss making big changes.
It is obvious Owen is putting too much pressure upon himself and is trying to do too much.
I am certain Don will get him going again.
Let's remember, Power and Jokiharju pairing were not on the ice for either of the Panthers even strength goals.
On the other hand with only 10 minutes even strength ice time, Bryson was on the ice for both of Florida's goals.
Mishandling a pass behind the net led a turn over and White's goal and failing to tie up Tkachuk's stick led to the second.

I get it Power and Jokiharju have terrible Corsi results, but they are both +6 collectively, they must be doing something correct.</div></div>

I can definitely see how this can be viewed as a reactionary post by me, but it more is coming from my philosophy behind team building &amp; development. Put young guys in a position to succeed and give them somebody to rely on and that can help them. Right now it feels like both Joki &amp; Power are struggling a bit without having that person to lean on.
Forum: Armchair-GMAug. 3, 2022 at 8:17 p.m.
Thread: My ideal 2023-24 roster
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Ihopeigetit</b></div><div>1. Why? I mean that would be nice, but I dont think he jumps that quick - he's not even in Roch this year, is he?
2. Okay with paying him that if he performs again, but I feel like there will be a slight decline as we offer more guys ice time so he wont have the time to put up the points
3. Cozens would be RFA - just a Tkachuk situation if he doesnt like it here; this contract is similar idea as when dahlia signed for 6mil
4. Okposo will leave to a contender next year in my OP
5. I mean I agree, I just dont think there will be any takes unless we sell low on him. Think I'd rather just keep him</div></div>

1. He can’t play in Rochester this year, from the CHL I believe if you are under 20 you cannot play in the AHL. I think to start 2023 the WHL will be below him given he takes another step
2. Fair enough, I actually agree in that his numbers will go down a bit, but I don’t know if it’ll be enough to get his AAV under 6mill
3. Is it not age 27 or 7 pro seasons? His ELC would account for 3 and a 4 year deal would make 7 total so I think he’d be UFA, I could be mistaken though
4. Fair enough, I hadn’t really given that much thought. Assuming he gets the C though our window to be competitive should also be opening soon so I think he could stay
5. Definitely another good point, I just don’t know where he’ll fit because in my mind Savoie will be on the team and we’ll have Thompson, Cozens, Savoie in the top 9

Good post, very thought provoking!
Forum: Armchair-GMJul. 14, 2022 at 2:45 p.m.
Thread: Buffalo - Moves to Consider
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Shibbal18</b></div><div>Samuelsson - Dahlin will start the year</div></div>

That's fine with me, but what is the backup plan? What if Samuelsson gets hurt?

Like I said in the previous response you can still go with
Sameulsson-Dahlin
Power-Marino
Bryson-Lyubushkin
Pilut-Joki

Depth is a good thing to have and sometimes its okay for a younger player to get scratched so they can watch a couple of games. People act like the scratches never play.. John Hayden played over 50% of our games last year..

Also, I love Samuelsson so don't get me wrong here, but he has played 54 NHL games and we are penciling him in for 25+ minutes a night.. that does seem a little sketchy to me

<a href="/users/littlejerryseinfeld" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">@littlejerryseinfeld</a> <a href="/users/thewookie1" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">@thewookie1</a> : only tagging you guys to also get your opinions
Forum: Armchair-GMJul. 14, 2022 at 1:47 p.m.
Thread: Buffalo - Moves to Consider
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>littlejerryseinfeld</b></div><div>no thanks. i like dahlin on his right side with samuelsson</div></div>

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Shibbal18</b></div><div>Dahlin is on the right, but id still do this</div></div>

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>thewookie1</b></div><div>Don't see a point of this trade sense we already have 3 players on the right</div></div>

Guys, Dahlin played &lt;30 games on the right last year, and I did like him with Samuelsson in that span. BUT, adding Marino gives us a legitimate top 4 RHD who's strong defensively. Again, Sammy was great at the end of last year, but realistically Joki, and Lyubushkin are 3rd pair RHD so there's plenty of versatility still in the lineup.

You can still go
23-26
25-Marino
and rotate the other 3/4 D on the roster

Adding Marino gives affordable positional depth in an overall weak area in our organization.
Forum: Armchair-GMJun. 27, 2022 at 2:10 p.m.
Thread: Buffalo
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>qc14</b></div><div>If the point of taking Bob is to get assets back, why would the caps not just make the original deal with FLA?

You have a 3 way trade w/
FLA getting asplund, a 3rd, and 8m in cap space in exchange for Bob, Bennett, and a 5th
BUF getting Bennett, Iorio, and a 5th in exchange for asplund, a 3rd, and 12m in retention
WSH getting Bob at 5m in exchange for Iorio and a 5th

Caps should be getting Bennett, not BUF</div></div>

I guess that I was under the impression that WSH could be looking to upgrade in net.. The idea is that Bob at 5m isn't a cap dump anymore, especially not to a team who's looking to compete.

It doesn't make any sense to me that you would be getting both the quality starting goaltender and middle 6 C for Iorio and a 5th..

FLA needs cap relief -&gt; Buffalo provides cap relief and upgrades at forward as payment
WSH could use help in net -&gt; BUF gets paid to provide starting G

If you want Bennett, you can eat the total 12.5 Million of Bob @8 &amp; Bennett @~4.5 and cut Buffalo out, but I don't think that you can afford that so both teams are paying the middle man to help facilitate a deal
Forum: Armchair-GMJun. 17, 2022 at 1:44 p.m.
Thread: Buffalo - Making Some Splashes
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>GeneralLandro</b></div><div>If you’re trading for Gibson, you think he will fix your goaltending problems. That being said, what is this? Why would Verbeek even answer the phone from Buffalo again after this offer?</div></div>

Just to clarify, what is Gibson worth to you?

Also, I've seen a lot of offers for Gibson on this website and this is very similar to a lot of them. A legit Top 6 winger who is 26 (25-30 goal guy - albeit not anything special defensively) and a near NHL ready top 4 potential LHD. I'm operating under the mindset here that you are gonna want to come out of the rebuild sooner than later with the arrivals of Zegras, Drysdale, McTavish, etc. Ryan Johnson is much closer to ready (and maybe better) than whoever you are gonna get with the Leafs or EDM's 2023 late first.

I completely understand if you don't watch a lot of Sabres hockey and quite frankly I don't blame you, its been bad for a decade + now, but I get the impression that you are disregarding players because they play for Buffalo...

Lastly, I don't think that Gibson would come in here to be the savior in net, but I do think that he is a significant upgrade over the Anderson/Tokarski tandem. You must understand though, there is still risk involved in taking on a goalie that's been no better than average over the last 3 seasons and has 5 years left at 6.4 million..
Forum: Armchair-GMJun. 17, 2022 at 1:28 p.m.
Thread: Just trying this out
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>ReelBigFan</b></div><div>It’s close, but I’d still take the Sens offer there. Better prospect, I’d take Brannstrom over 28 and 16 vs a 2023 first I have to lean with the deeper draft</div></div>

Just curious as to why you so quickly qualify Ryan Johnson as a "B Prospect"? Just curious about what the scale is, because the only reason he hasn't signed with Buffalo yet is that we have Dahlin, Power, &amp; Samuelsson all in front of him on the left side, that doesn't really leave a lot of room for him. He's a really high quality two way defenseman who's close to NHL ready and has a top4 ceiling IMO, what about that makes him a "B Prospect" to you? Also, note that I'm not trying to be rude here because I know nothing about Senators prospects, but I'm curious what makes him a B for you.

*Edit - I know that Ryan Johnson is a Sabres prospect, I'm saying from the self awareness of knowing that I know nothing about Senators' prospects I'm curious how you are ranking/grading Sabres prospects
Forum: Armchair-GMJun. 6, 2022 at 2:54 p.m.
Thread: Mock Offseason 21 - Keep Building
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>RevRyan</b></div><div>Lol this is hilarious. As a Sabres fan, the real world isn't NHL Franchise Mode. We aren't getting Samsonov, first off. Secondly, that Calgary trade is laughable, and there isn't a chance in the world Calgary accepts that, especially since they are likely losing Johnny hockey. Lastly, and most ridiculously, an offer sheet for Kakko is a complete joke. Most teams dont do that in general, its not gonna happen. And at that price, not a chance in the world that the Rangers dont match that. This is reality friend, not a video game. Sabres will do none of this.</div></div>

This is a website "friend", where reality can be whatever I want *inserts Thanos GIF here*

I hope to find you in the comment section of every Armchair GM on this website with the same comment, because I don't know if you've seen very many of them, but they are mostly ridiculous. The Calgary trade is in a scenario where they are keeping Gaudreau and want to free up additional cap space by moving Monahan (clearly given the response above, is not something that they will need to be doing most likely). I also see that this is your first comment since 2019 so you could be unaware, but Monahan isn't a PPG player anymore. Also, last I checked Mangiapane is a really solid player, but you are acting like he's Connor McDavid with your response, which is actually laughable.

P.S. - Whether they make any of these moves or not doesn't really matter to me, I think its fun to put together a team with my own ideas and get respectful feedback from hockey fans of other teams. If I knew what the Sabres are going to do in July, I wouldn't waste my time guessing on here for fun.
Forum: Armchair-GMJun. 6, 2022 at 1:45 p.m.
Thread: Mock Offseason 21 - Keep Building
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Ledge_And_Dairy</b></div><div>Did I not respond? Pretty sure I went to post JFresh's player cards of the 2. Maybe I just never found one for Olofsson, got busy and forgot. Oh well, maybe <a href="https://www.naturalstattrick.com/playercompare.php?fromseason=20192020&amp;thruseason=20212022&amp;stype=2&amp;sit=5v5&amp;score=all&amp;stdoi=oi&amp;rate=y&amp;p1=8478109&amp;p2=8478233&amp;loc=B&amp;gpfilt=none&amp;fd=&amp;td=&amp;tgp=410&amp;lines=single" rel="nofollow noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">this</a> will give you a better understanding of the gap between these 2 players.

As for cap space; Zadorov is gone Calgary has the depth to replace him on the 3rd pair so no reason to bring him up. Gudbranson will be dirt cheap to resign if given term. Kylington hasn't proven he is worth a big contract yet, he was very streaky and went pretty ice cold in the 2nd half of the year.

Calgary's cap situation is really overblown and the general fans POV on Monahan is also really distorted. Here you have SM on IR, why would Calgary not just keep him on LTIR if he was still hurt. In the scenario that he is health his value is also not negative, its not high but he should not cost assets to move since he is a top 6 center with only 1 year left</div></div>

Fair enough, this is the best response that I've gotten on this website maybe ever, so thank you. If Monahan is hurt to start the season, but then is healthy in say December, wouldn't Calgary still have to have the space to bring him back onto the active roster? Also, I guess from an outside perspective, even though Monahan was injured wasn't he playing mostly on the fourth line at least towards the end of this year?

Finally, in my opinion, analytics can be very helpful and useful in evaluating a players use / contribution to the teams success, but sometimes I think that people can go a little too far with it. For instance in Buffalo Asplund is great analytically and as you've seen Olofsson is not, but Olofsson is still a better hockey player and will be compensated as such. Another example is Patrik Laine, he sucks analytically, but he is very good at scoring, which is a huge portion of the game and he is still a really good player. Moral of the story is that I think that analytics are really good and valuable when building a team, but I think there is more to hockey than just that, but I digress.

On another note, in a vacuum, what is Mangiapane worth to you in terms of trade value?
Forum: Armchair-GMJun. 6, 2022 at 1:24 p.m.
Thread: Mock Offseason 21 - Keep Building
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>littlejerryseinfeld</b></div><div>You realize the "defensive side of the puck" is like half the game right?

Who cares about making life tough for the Rangers? We have plenty of you guys ourselves to put into the line up</div></div>

Obviously, but it seems like Tkachuck, Gaudreau, and all of their defensive RFA &amp; UFA would also be important pieces of the roster... Also you are acting like NHL GM's give that credit for being half of the game.. Last I checked Asplund isn't getting 5 million a year (and won't likely ever) and other defensive specialists aren't either, but Olofsson will and he doesn't know where the defensive zone is half the time; he does put the puck in the back of the net though. There are way more Offensive specialists (especially as wingers) than defensive specialists.

The point of the move isn't specifically to make life tough for the Rangers, but to add a good player with strong potential to our roster in the mold of a player that we neither have a lot of in Buffalo or anywhere is the system that could play in the top 6. Me saying that it makes life tough for the Rangers is making the point that it could be a possibility that we get him if offer sheeted (which by the way won't happen anyways).

Which guys are you proposing to put into the top 6 this year that have the potential of Kakko by the way? Getting Dylan Cozens better wingers than he had last season is a huge priority for me if I'm Kevyn Adams this summer.
Forum: Armchair-GMJun. 6, 2022 at 12:58 p.m.
Thread: Mock Offseason 21 - Keep Building
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Ledge_And_Dairy</b></div><div>Yeah thats a very easy no from Calgary</div></div>

We've already been there, see attached that you didn't respond to:

See, I never said that Olofsson was as good of a player as Mangiapane, but they do produce similarly which is at least worth noting.

Also, that is a difference of 0.476 EV PPG for Mangiapane to 0.429 EV PPG for Olofsson we aren't talking worlds different here... (=0.047 EV PPG or just under 4 in a full 82 game season)

I believe that the difference in their two way game could be accounted for with the additional $11+ million dollars of cap space cleared up.

I guess IMO losing one or more of Gaudreau, Tkchuk, Kylington, Gudbranson, Zadorov hurts you way more than swapping Mangiapane for Olofsson and being able to keep all of those guys or add additional pieces elsewhere
Forum: Armchair-GMJun. 6, 2022 at 12:56 p.m.
Thread: Mock Offseason 21 - Keep Building
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>littlejerryseinfeld</b></div><div>You are about to attract a swarm of Calgary fans.

If Monahan is going to be on IR, he might as well be on LTIR and Calgary doesn't save any money. We'd have to pay quite a bit more for Mangiapane.

Kakko has done nothing to prove he is worth even half of that AAV</div></div>

Firstly, the only reason Monahan is on IR, is that I don't believe he'll be ready at the start of the season. They would still be saving money assuming that he will be ready to play part way through the season and they have to activate him from LTIR. Its what screwed Vegas this year.. Also people are way-way overvaluing 25-26 year old RFA wingers this year. The only place that Olofsson hasn't been comparable to Mangiapane is on the defensive side of the puck and that's where the Monahan and Ryan Johnson come into play as compensation. Sam Reinhart has been better his whole career than Andrew Mangiapane and we got a late first and a 7th round pick goalie, Buchnevich got a 2nd and Sammy Blais. If Calgary wants to clear some cap space Mangiapane for Olofsson, gets them similar production and ~$6 million for their stars.

For Kakko: Dylan Cozens seems to play his best hockey with a Power Forward style player next to him (see Okposo &amp; PLD). Kakko is young and still has enough of a ceiling that he is definitely worth a second round pick to acquire. Sign him for the two or so years, if it doesn't work out that he develops into a solid contributor let him go (can be replaced with one of a bunch of prospects that should be ready to go at that time), it was a second round pick in a draft that we have 3 of those. Also, it makes life very hard for the Rangers. If they match, keeping Laf next year gets really tough, then we can offer sheet him if we so choose.
Forum: Armchair-GMJun. 3, 2022 at 1:32 p.m.
Thread: Mock Offseason 20 - Built to Compete
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Ledge_And_Dairy</b></div><div>This prime example of glosses over the truth by looking at production only. 98 of Mangiapane's 119 points came at even strength, whereas only 78 of Olofsson's 123 points came at even strength. Mangiapane's production would be much higher if he played on someone's first powerplay unit. This also doesn't take into account the massive difference in their 2-way game.</div></div>

See, I never said that Olofsson was as good of a player as Mangiapane, but they do produce similarly which is at least worth noting.

Also, that is a difference of 0.476 EV PPG for Mangiapane to 0.429 EV PPG for Olofsson we aren't talking worlds different here... (=0.047 EV PPG or just under 4 in a full 82 game season)

I believe that the difference in their two way game could be accounted for with the additional $11+ million dollars of cap space cleared up.

I guess IMO losing one or more of Gaudreau, Tkchuk, Kylington, Gudbranson, Zadorov hurts you way more than swapping Mangiapane for Olofsson and being able to keep all of those guys or add additional pieces elsewhere