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Blazingbat11

Molson beer is meh
Member Since
Jan. 1, 2017
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Forum: Armchair-GMFeb. 8 at 2:23 p.m.
Thread: Its becoming a tradition
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Blazingbat11</b></div><div>100% agree. but you can bet that folks on CapFriendly will keep taking a swing at him so long as he keeps struggling. There must be something about big tall French centers that are irresistible lol

Fool me once (CBJ), shame on you! Fool me twice (WIN), shame on me! ......... Fool me three times (LA)... well I'm starting to get impressed you keep fooling people!</div></div>

Well obviously the Francophone factor is there but believe it or not, I think the idea of "getting a good player whose playing bad, for cheap but then plays well for us" is the driving force on why he's being brought up by many Habs fans. His season thus far should be the reason why Habs fans DONT want him, even for cheap.
Forum: Armchair-GMJan. 31 at 10:06 a.m.
Thread: my trade deadline focus
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Blazingbat11</b></div><div>What's interesting is that Monahan and Lindholm are having very similar seasons in terms of production. I'm not saying they should be worth the same (Lindholm should be worth more 100%, due to his pedigree), but from a rental perspective, it would be a lot more cost effective to go for Monahan (or Henrique) than Lindholm since they are all having similar seasons.
If DAL are willing to pay the steep premiums (Bourque + Steel + 1st) for Lindholm with the purpose of extending him. All the power to them. But should they decide to go the rental option. Monahan or Henrique seem to be the more logical choice. The big debate is what those guys can fetch on what seems to be a very limited Center market.</div></div>

I think thats the thing for me though like you said, Lindholm strikes me more as a player who teams will want to trade for and extend given the recent track record. Henrique and Monahan can add some value as rentals for sure, but for me when you are trading a top prospect like bourque, you only do it when you have a player who can hold them out of the roster for a fairly projectable amount of time. If they trade for lindholm, and extend him, then maybe it makes sense to trade bourque in a package, but i would be less confident in monahan or henrique being able to keep bourque out of that 2C spot for the next couple years
Forum: Armchair-GMJan. 17 at 9:41 p.m.
Thread: Trade deadline
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Blazingbat11</b></div><div>I'd argue Barron is a lot more valuable than Barlow atm, and I'd have no interest in moving Barron for him. But I can also see why Jets wouldn't want to trade Barlow either. Should just remove both from the trade.


As for Monahan to WIN. I'd say it's pretty close to fair market value for Monahan with the two 2nd's. I really don't understand the hate with Monahan on here. The guy is actually a solid two-way player for those who actually watch him play (Does good on the PK, great on face-offs, and can pitch in offensively). If I had to criticize his game, it would be his transition game. He's slowed down considerably from his CGY days. But in the offensive and defensive zone. He's great! I would be happy if MTL extends him.

A lot of people have brought up some poor analytics. But this really is a case of where individual analytics in a team sport start to break down. Context matters. At the beginning of the season, when Monahan was almost a point per game, his linemates were Pearson and Gallagher. Analytically then, they were all great! at 5v5 they had a positive shot differential with 52.8% and CF% was 51.8. Then injuries happened (Pearson among others) and lines were changed. Since then, Monahan has been GLUED to Anderson, who's literally been an anchor with whoever he's played with this season (RDS even showed a graph in November just how bad Anderson was making everyone he'd played with as opposed to playing without him). Anderson has really been that bad (apart from a good 7-8 game stretch in December...) Since being stuck with Anderson, Monahan's shot differential % has plummeted to below 42% and CF% to 44..... and yet, when you check the small sample size of when Monahan plays without Anderson, like recently when he's been with RHP and Ylonen, his SF% and CF% magically goes back at 58.3% and 55.6% respectively.

So imo, if Monahan does get traded (and not necessarily to WIN), whoever acquires him will be pleasantly surprised with how he contributes. The hate on here is unwarranted.</div></div>

Very fair points.
Forum: Armchair-GMDec. 18, 2023 at 11:13 a.m.
Forum: Armchair-GMDec. 18, 2023 at 10:55 a.m.
Thread: Monahans trade value
First, let me say, great description and forethought. Your comparisons (while they have their warts, see below) are well thought out.

The problem with the Stastny comparison is history. Paul was relatively healthy and a 40-60 point guy (averaging about 2.3 points per 60) in the previous 4 years. Monahan has been unhealthy and hasn't put up 40+ points in 4 years (averaging 1.5 points per 60 in his last full-ish season).

The Copp example is similar in that he also didn't have much history (1 full good season before the trade) but he was 25 and had a lot of speculation value. The Rangers thought maybe he had more and maybe they could resign him.

The other flaw is that Monahan is VERY PP dependent. He has 9 points in the PP and 8 at even strength. Both Copp and Stastny had better numbers 5v5.

So Monahan is likely worth less than both. He is older than Copp and has a less productive history than Stastny. He also has an injury history and was just dumped (with a 1st) last offseason. He also is weaker 5v5.

I am in the 2nd + B prospect camp, assuming a team needs PP help, Monahan stays healthy, and a team is willing to overpay.
Forum: Armchair-GMDec. 7, 2023 at 6:31 p.m.
Thread: Teams interested in goalies
As far as UFA goaltenders being a better solution than Allen next season, most are looking for term.
Allen's 1 year at $2-4M could be more appealing than a roughly $3M x3 commitment, especially with a lot of similar signings not turning out so well in recent years.

Teams are reluctant to pay for young with potential and you can remove most contenders from that market anyway.
Elite-ish starters are rarely available and have a high price tag as UFAs.
The majority of the market of available goaltenders are career backups and bubble NHLers.
The "cream" of the UFA crop are those who have been successful starters or tandems and are only moving on because their current team has too many options and/or not enough room to keep them.

You can expect to pay around $3M for even an average backup or you can gamble on the bargain bin.