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EHPower27

Member Since
Apr. 30, 2018
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Toronto Maple Leafs
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Forum: Armchair-GMMar. 6, 2019 at 5:22 p.m.
Thread: If we trade Kapanen Brown Z can we keep Gards
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>mhockey91</b></div><div>He’s the second best D your franchise has had in the last decade. Logical leaf fans see the value in gardiner. The issue is; the future contract and he’s a left hand shot. Ideally leafs would target a RHD this offseason as your right side is very weak, but I can promise you that a leafs D with gardiner is a hell of a lot better than a leafs D without gardiner</div></div>

I used to be very opposed to trading Kapanen, but given how good Moore and Bracco have looked, and with acquiring Petan I think it may make sense to give them bigger roles and look for a better D. I wanted to explore this option first, but it doesn't look very realistic. I think the more probable solution would be to acquire a relatively young defence man with a good contract like Miller or Pesce.

That or perhaps a D-man coming off an ELC that has already proved they can play in the NHL, but I'm not sure who that could be
Forum: Armchair-GMMar. 3, 2019 at 8:52 p.m.
Thread: Oilers hurricans avalanche and islanders trades
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Barilko14</b></div><div>Marleau is pretty awful today, I'm not assuming Tavares and Marner get 90 pts with him, especially considering any time his played with them this season, he's played his worse hockey.

Matthews line looks alright, but I'd still prefer an actual playmaker on his wing to take better advantage of the fact hes the best 5v5 goal scorer in the league. Majority of Matthews goals lately have come on the PP, he scores more 5v5 with Nylander on his wing.

Also spin it any way you want, you've created two 4th lines, which makes the Leafs much less dangerous in the playoffs.

Also like I said, you've over corrected our Defence. You talk about cap rising and re-signing all these guys. What was the point of drafting Liljegren and Sandin if you've got 6 dmen standing in the way? Not to mention the fact Rosen is ready for the nhl today, and Borgman is close as well, why gut our offence to block guys like that, even Dermott is ready for a promotion to the top 4, but he'd be wasted on the 3rd pair for years in this scenario.</div></div>

All great points, not to mention we've aged our core replacing Nylander with guys like Barrie/Larsson/Nieto, shortening or window to win.
Forum: Armchair-GMFeb. 14, 2019 at 1:20 p.m.
Thread: One Trade Needed
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Jamiepo</b></div><div>It’s all about usage, funny how zaitsev is a ppg pkayer for team Russia.

When zaitsev skates and moves the puck he does so just fine. But he usually defers to gardiner. Thats his diminished role. Zaitsev’s giveaways usually come from breaking up cycle and desperation plays not from his stretch pass. When was the last time you saw zaitsev ice the puck on a missed stretch pass?

The last time I looked at the stat zaitsev and gardiner were both at 59% on stretch pass completions. I’ve just noticed from watching over the last month or so that gardiner is missing much more than zaitsev.</div></div>

I wouldn't call Zaitsev having 8 assists in 8 games, in an international tournament where most of the best players don't participate, substantial enough evidence to overturn the 2 and a half seasons now, he's played for Toronto. The tournament that you're referring to was also played on larger European ice surfaces, giving defenders more time to make plays. He also was no where near a point per game in any of his other international tournaments.

I'd strongly disagree. If their both at 59% we could say they're equal but given the data I've shown even if they're equal at stretch passes, Gardiner is clearly better at completing breakout passes. Even if Zaitsev is deferring to Gardiner often, out of the amount of times he doesn't defer to Gardiner, he has a smaller percentage of controlled zone exits.
Forum: Armchair-GMFeb. 14, 2019 at 1:03 a.m.
Thread: One Trade Needed
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Jamiepo</b></div><div>Better than lovejoy on both counts. Leafs are 7th in GA... and zaitsev is our best Defensive Dman. He can also thread much better stretch passes than gardiner percentage wise. The Babs plan is get the puck to gardiner so that’s what he does.

How are the devils making out with lovejoy??? Ohhh ouch.</div></div>

If you're argument is that Zaitsev is better than Lovejoy because the leafs allow less goals than the Devils, then I think I'm going to have a tough time debating with you on this. The Islanders have allowed the least goals in the NHL. Does that mean all their players superior defensively to Zaitsev and Lovejoy?

I very rarely see Zaitsev complete a break out pass, it's very often off the glass and out, then the other team gets the puck and carries it back in because he's bad at defending the blue line. This is supported by CJ Turtoro's data on zone exits and entry defence here <a href="https://public.tableau.com/profile/christopher.turtoro#!/vizhome/ZoneTransitionsper60/Entries" rel="nofollow noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">https://public.tableau.com/profile/christopher.turtoro#!/vizhome/ZoneTransitionsper60/Entries</a>

I'm very curious as to where you get your percentages on stretch pass data? I find it very surprising that Zaitsev would be that much better at stretch passes. Even if he is, he rarely utilizes it and is much more likely to turn the puck over.
Forum: Armchair-GMFeb. 13, 2019 at 6:02 p.m.
Thread: One Trade Needed
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>jamiejallan</b></div><div>Lovejoy is just an option as he is currently listed as trade bait... it's just about opening cap space we need... Zaitsev is overpriced at 4.5 for the next 5 years... move him, fill the space with a under 3 million / year D man and we can keep the rest of the crew.

If we can get Sparks for less great, I don't see Kapy for less than 3.5, go look at comparables, he's good and will be in demand! These numbers can all slide... Marner needs $$$$ and I think Zaitsev gives us the room for it.</div></div>

I have looked at the comparables quite a bit, given he's only on pace for roughly 50 points, same as Johnsson, I think the major gap between their AAVs a little unlikely.
Comparables I've looked at include: Kase, Pacioretty, Ritchie, Wood, Marcus Foligno, Niederreiter, Bjorkstrand, Tatar, Baertshi, Mantha
I think Kase is probably the strongest comparable and he signed for 3 year $2.6M. I think Kapy should fall around $2.8M on a 3 year deal
Forum: Armchair-GMFeb. 10, 2019 at 1:57 p.m.
Forum: Armchair-GMFeb. 3, 2019 at 5:52 p.m.
Thread: Trade Zaitsev to Stay Under and Acquire Jensen
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>palhal</b></div><div>You know this trade doesn't work. If Zaitsev is of so little trade value...why would Detroit want him? If Jensen is so valuable, he doesn't sign a 2m contract as a UFA.</div></div>

Depends on what the percieved value is. The red wings may want a defenceman with a lot of term, as his % cap hit will get less and less as they get more and more competitive, they may feel that he can contribute on the special teams and provide value in their top 4 down the road. Jensen may not want to re-sign with them. To be honest I don't really know what Jensen will sign for but I think it's kind of rare for a defenseman who's never put up more than 15 points to get paid big money. especially since his last contract was only for $800k.
Forum: Armchair-GMJan. 30, 2019 at 6:05 p.m.
Thread: Trade Zaitsev to fit the contracts
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>jpsnow13</b></div><div>Take a look at this. I think that guy has the best solution :
<a href="https://www.capfriendly.com/armchair-gm/team/1006560">https://www.capfriendly.com/armchair-gm/team/1006560</a></div></div>

Haha I actually ran through this solution a little while ago, some believe it would be considered collusion because the avs are essentially just acquiring Marleau to buy him out for the leafs, and that could be deemed collusion. There's no real reason for Colorado to buy him out since the buy out cap hit would be the same as his actual cap hit, after the Orpik situation the teams were investigated by the league and there was deemed to be no collusion because it actually made sense for Orpik to be bought out, not just so he could return to his old team.
<a href="https://www.capfriendly.com/armchair-gm/team/968083">https://www.capfriendly.com/armchair-gm/team/968083</a>
Forum: Armchair-GMJan. 29, 2019 at 8:54 p.m.
Thread: Trade Zaitsev to fit the contracts
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>jpsnow13</b></div><div>Let say you put Brown in Minors or trade him and go for 22 players. So technically it would work. But your defense is weak and you cut corners on your prospect development.

You are still stuck against cap roof and can't add any veteran at the TDL. This defense is full of undevelopped rookies and is not contender worthy, especially on the right side.

Or you get a young and cheap RHD NHL ready like a Dotchin, Pionk or Honka for Kapanen AND you can add a veteran like Lovejoy or Girardi for 1.5-2M ...

I really think you have a better team to win a champioship then.

(3rd line) Offense is nice, but defence wins championships!

My two cents... Still, I like your framework. Let's go the extra step ;)</div></div>

Haha thanks, I appreciate the insight and feedback.

IMO Defence wins championships is the biggest lie in sports. If you were to rank the teams in the playoffs each year in GF/Game and GA/Game, each of the last 4 cup winners ranked higher in GF than GA.
It doesn't matter if you win 5-4, or 2-1 as long as you win.
Forum: Armchair-GMJan. 29, 2019 at 6:29 p.m.
Thread: Trade Zaitsev to fit the contracts
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>jpsnow13</b></div><div>With realistic signing numbers (a bit more for everyone) you need to get rid of 6-7 millions of average annual value.

If Marleau doesn't want to leave, the only solution I can see is to trade Zaitsev + Kapanen or just Nylander for good young first contract players.

I would trade Nylander based on expectations versus cap hit, trade value, work ethics and thought negociation history.

Get some promising young puck moving Dmans and you are all set for the Cup.

Like when Tampa moved Drouin to MTL for Sergachiev.</div></div>

I would disagree, when I did my inflation consideration I took the cap hit % and multiplied it by the current cap to get the inflated value, so it led to $3.2M and $3.3M. There are also many comparables less than kapy's cap hit, like Baertshi had almost identical points and games played as Kapy, and he was only inflated to $2.1M, Kase is the most recent close comparable and his was only inflated to $2.72M. Schwartz is, I think, definitely a better player than Kapy, and his cap hit only got inflated to $2.8M.

I chose something in the middle of all my comparables for Kapy at $3M.

Also you don't need a 23 man roster, you could just have a 22 man roster and call people up as they get injured, you also could probably get Matthews down to $11M with less term, or even trade Brown.

Trading Nylander should be seen as the last choice IMO
Forum: Armchair-GMJan. 29, 2019 at 5:46 p.m.
Thread: Trade Zaitsev to fit the contracts
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Gauss</b></div><div>I am looking at all the other posts that want to improve defense and to stay under the cap trade a crap load of prospects and pics with a Kapanen, Brown, Johnson, Zaitsev etc to make the room for a 5+ million Defense to keep Nylander. We won't have a Marlies team left to call up players giving up so much future.</div></div>

I don't understand your point here. I'm not suggesting to trade away any prospects or picks.

I think that out of the Leafs players Zaitsev and Brown are probably the most expendable and most overpaid.
I think that obviously the leafs can't afford to have the best offence in the league and the best defence in the league the goal is to have players who are worth more than what you pay them, and Zaitsev is overpaid and Nylander is not.

I think it's better to remove a fringe 2nd/3rd pair defenceman and replace him with a 3rd pair defenceman than to remove a 1st line Forward talent and replace him with a 3rd/4th line Forward