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Kyle_Davidson

Kyle from Chicago
Member Since
Feb. 22, 2018
Favourite Team
Chicago Blackhawks
2nd Favourite Team
Carolina Hurricanes
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Posts per Day
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Forum: Armchair-GMApr. 13 at 11:32 a.m.
Forum: Armchair-GMApr. 13 at 10:39 a.m.
Thread: 2024 opening night
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>ChiHawk</b></div><div>Highly doubt Vlasic would sign an 8 year deal at $5.2M. Remember, as a 22 year rookie against the toughest assignments, he's ranked top 3 defensive players in the defensive zone. If Vlasic were never to improve from this season, unlikely given his age and the improvement from a year ago, he'd be worth $6M minimum to $8M on a 8 year deal. He and his agent are not only wouldn't take a penny less, they will bet on him improving and thus almost certainly don't want a 8 year deal unless it's around $8M which the Hawks probably wouldn't do. For that reason, he's likely a 3 year bridge and going to land anywhere from $3M to $5M on a 3 year bridge deal is my guess. If I'm Chicago though, I'd push to lock him up between $6M and $7M on a 8 year deal as that will look like a bargain in a few years with Vlasic almost certainly improving and the cap continuing to rise. We could be looking at the best shutdown defender in the league in a couple years, and I'd argue if he had played 6 less games last season in the NHL and could qualify for the Calder, he'd be in the conversation right behind Bedard and Faber with a pretty good argument.</div></div>

I disagree with this. Shutdown dmen don't make $8M. If he signed at $5.2M for 8 years, he would be overpaid for the first 2 to 4 years of the contract. Which means overall, he will have made more money in total than he would have on a bridge plus his contract after the bridge deal. At his peak, as a shutdown defenseman, $5.2M should be right in line with market value. The only way he gets $8M or more is if he adds a ton of offense to his game. Which is possible, but, again, the overpayment in the first few years of the contract should be able to make up for that discrepancy, and if they structure the contract properly and backload the deal, he will be making that much or close enough to it in the back half of the contract, just at a lower AAV, which helps the team.

Contract structure:

@ a $5.18M AAV x 8 years

Actual salary:
Year 1: $3M
Year 2: $3M
Year 3: $3M
Year 4: $4.5M
Year 5: $5.5M
Year 6: $6.5M
Year 7: $8M
Year 8: $8M
Forum: Armchair-GMApr. 9 at 9:46 p.m.
Forum: Armchair-GMMar. 20 at 9:31 a.m.
Forum: Armchair-GMMar. 19 at 9:40 p.m.
Thread: If only if
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Kyle_Davidson</b></div><div>This is a valid way of thinking, but I prefer to think that the hawks put Kurashev through arbitration for 2 reasons. 1. To establish a precedent for RFA’s in negotiations and 2. Because they honestly did not believe Kurashev was worth his price and wanted to buy time. If Kurashev has not proven his case to the hawks after this season, or at least made a good start in doing so. This isn’t a mistake by Davidson per se, but if he cannot admit Kurashev’s value then that’s not a great sign.</div></div>

I gotta believe Davidson is seeing value in Kurashev NOW (if not before)... I think you're right that he was buying time with him. And, as we all know, Kurashev certainly has made a jump this year.

Maybe it is just a timing thing with Kurashev? If Dach (Kirby) and the Cat weren't going to be on the same timeline as the Hawks needed for this LONG rebuild, then perhaps Kurashev isn't, either? Or, maybe some players just take longer to grow into becoming an NHLer? (Thinking of you, Patrick Sharp.)

It'll be interesting to see what happens next - with both Kurashev's development, as well as with the Hawks' rebuild. They may align together, they may not. No matter what happens in this regard, though, your point in another post is a valid one, IMO... If Kurashev is traded, the Hawks would need to acquire assets that have a high likelihood of becoming what Kurashev now actually is: an NHL player.