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Kyle_Davidson

Kyle from Chicago
Member Since
Feb. 22, 2018
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Chicago Blackhawks
2nd Favourite Team
Carolina Hurricanes
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Forum: Armchair-GMMar. 20 at 9:31 a.m.
Forum: Armchair-GMMar. 19 at 9:40 p.m.
Thread: If only if
Forum: Armchair-GMMar. 16 at 9:57 a.m.
Forum: Armchair-GMMar. 13 at 8:36 p.m.
Forum: Armchair-GMFeb. 28 at 10:59 p.m.
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Kyle_Davidson</b></div><div>No, it’s an abstract concept I am applying in my own way. I’ll try to break it down here ~read this if the blues suck~

If you enter 4,000,000 into the salary relief tool with 1 year left, the displayed pick indicates what it historically has costed to move a contract of that value. In this case, the tool projects that the avalanche would need to include a 2nd round pick, 5th overall in that round, or the 37th overall pick. Each pick has a value assigned to it based on historical data for each spot (I assume), where higher picks have greater value.

In this post I am equating the draft pick compensation as the negative value to move that player. In other words, if the 37th pick is what’s projected to move that contract and that picks value is “8.32” normally then Ryan Johnson would have “-8.32” value to move for which Chicago would be compensated. In the mock trade, I suggested that as Colorodo does not have a 2nd of that value or much opportunity to mix and max assets to get to that 8.32 spot they should give Chicago there first and Chicago would send picks to make up the difference since they can. It would be like paying with a $20 bill and getting change from the store. In that case Chicago needs to make up 6.14 of draft pick value to make the trade fair for Colorodo which is then conveyed in picks valuing roughly that amount (2nd, 4th).

The tool does not account for the value of future picks, nor do calculations made today have the same value as after this season concludes. Depending on the results of the regular season, deadline, and playoffs who has what picks and where they are drafting change dramatically as in the case of the panthers making the SCF last year. Their draft picks went from being in the 15-20 range to number 31 which is a huge drop off.

I hope that helps, but let me know if I can explain something better.</div></div>

It helped. I read it 😞
Forum: Armchair-GMFeb. 19 at 4:01 p.m.
I highly doubt Vlasic comes under $5M for 7 or 8 years. He's better than Samuelson in his rookie year and ranked #5 in the league defensively (not offensively obviously), which given that is quite surprising your comment around him being a 2nd or 3rd pairing on a playoff team? He's pretty much proving this year he's a lock as a top 4 on a playoff team if not top 3 and upside as a top line even #1. The cap is also projected by the league to be $87.7M if you want to do projections as percentages against next year's cap. Could the Hawks get Vlasic on a $5.5M 7 or 8 year deal? That would be huge as in 4 or 5 years that deal will be a absolute steal....but his agent knows this and they (Vlasic and his agent) will likely be pushing hard for a bridge deal. I wouldn't be shocked with a 3 year $4M deal.

Reichel may get a qualifying offer for 1 or 2 years or maybe as high as $2M to your point. They could also go longer for $2M as it's not a lot of cap and betting on his slump is only that and thus making the deal look like a steal over a few years. Something is wrong upstairs with the kid. Sad to watch this season go to waste for him.

Philips has potential to be a NHL player, but he's got a fair amount of work to do as well to earn a solidified spot. I like Kaiser's upside more also given a year younger too. Crevier IMO, while also having work to be a full-time NHL player, looks more impressive in the NHL than Philips and could see him becoming a 3rd line lock down defensive pairing. Of course all of these guys should bounce up and down as they are doing this year.

I'm with you on Bouv...take him or leave him.

No way is Stamkos coming to Chicago for another tank year. He's going to go where he can chase a cup. Same reason Kane isn't sticking around towards the end of his career despite still living in Chicago in the mansion he purchased and remodeled in Lake Forest over the last 18 months. In the summer of 2025, I do believe we will be a more attractive team to top end talent in the league.

That's a bit of an overpay by Edmonton. Raddysh isn't worth much, maybe a 4th, Murphy retained for a late 1st is about right or about at best. Ceci doesn't cost that much to dump IMO. I would remove the 2nd and replace with a 3rd or 4th. We better feel really good about Rinzel if this is a move the hawks make. If Rinzel, still obviously young, doesn't live up to the hype in a couple of years the Hawks will have problems at RHD.

I do think TJ can net a 3rd or 4th, but splitting hairs.

Agree on Nazar. I think he will play at least the first half of next season in Rockford. Also agree the Hawks aren't going to sign any big names this summer, next summer (2025) I see that a strong a possibility. We have another tank year on the way next season, but it will be the last and the team should be slightly better than this year (maybe 5th worst in the league).

Regarding the draft, if the Hawks miss on Celebrini, I think they go Levshunov, Lindstrom and Demidov in that order depending where they pick and who's available.
Forum: Armchair-GMFeb. 19 at 1:41 p.m.
Thread: Deadline
Forum: Armchair-GMFeb. 16 at 1:35 p.m.
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Kyle_Davidson</b></div><div>Have you guys considered that Giroux would be better served on a contending team? His cap hit would be tough for other teams to take on, but he could net significant assets for Ottawa at the deadline.</div></div>
Sens need at least another Giroux, they need him as much if not more than other teams

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>AC14</b></div><div>Don't think the Blues would entertain that. Those types of prospects don't get traded unless they refuse to sign. Especially by teams who aren't in a competing window.</div></div>
Yeah I didn't know what to ask in return, actually it would need to be a young player already in the league. I said "<em>Could be any team, looking for similar assets</em>" just to give a rough idea of the kind of return needed.

But I see that some Blues fans focus on the exact proposal instead of that

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Kyle_Davidson</b></div><div>I mean… I could be wrong, but if you are going to tear down the entire team around him maybe he wouldn’t be content and you would get something for him.

Edit: Maybe not the entire team, but still why trade Chych?</div></div>
Wait, the point is not to tear the team down. Hamonic and Kubalik need to be gone ASAP (should have never been there but that's on the past GM who made a lot of terrible choices that we still have to live with

Tarasenko is UFA and needs to return something. He's still good but maybe what the Sens need exactly. The other guy traded here is Chychrun, while a good player as well, doesn't fit with the team that much and is not the exact need they have on defense. They need another guy more on the Zub mold and to balance the LHD/RHD situation more