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LIRIK

Member Since
Mar. 1, 2022
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Montreal Canadiens
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Forum: Armchair-GMSep. 30, 2023 at 1:04 p.m.
Thread: this is ONLY for a potential lineup in a couple of years
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Fran615</b></div><div>I think I added a bit much, of course, just so that people could actually get passed the trade offer and peer into a potential future lineup.

On the left side, I see Hutson as crucial.
Matheson is a local guy with leadership presence and incredible skating. Still young and on a good contract.
The KEY, from my perspective, is the totally underrated Adam Engstrom, who will come in and make a name for himself very quickly.
And Xhekaj has qualities that few Habs defensemen have.

All that to say that Ghule's value right now is pretty high.
The Habs "bought low" with Dach.
They may want to "sell high" with Ghule.</div></div>

Sorry but Guhle, Reinbacher, Hutson and Mailloux are likely all staying and will make up our top 4 for the next 10+ years. The plan so far seems to be pairing Guhle with Mailloux and Hutson with Reinbacher to create 2 Markov-Subban pairings. If all works out with the Russian kid he will make up the third pairing with Xhekaj as well. I think Matheson and Savard will be traded this year or next to allow for the younger better guys to step in. Harris, Engstrom, Struble and Barron all seem to be the odd men out.
Forum: Armchair-GMSep. 30, 2023 at 7:39 p.m.
Forum: Armchair-GMSep. 25, 2023 at 2:15 p.m.
Thread: Toronto Born and Raised
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>LIRIK</b></div><div>I was wondering if there's any trade possible for Zegras without a top prospect involved. Would two or three 1st round pick be enough? How high would those 1st have to be?</div></div>

I don't think there is. Redrafts of 2019 have Zegras going 3OA, you could maybe argue him down to 5th with Cozens breakout and maybe someone else, but even then, he's a guy who should have gone top 5, super skilled top 6 playmaker, and we already know what we have in him. At a minimum, there'd have to be a top 5 pick in the upcoming draft, plus extra on the grounds that were taking a risk and pushing back a main piece of our rebuild by 3-5 years depending on development time. We could consider something around Dach viewing him as a RWer which we are short on, a top 6 RW squad of Terry and Dach wouldn't be bad going forward. There's the appeal of Slaf, but how do you trade out an organizations first 1OA pick before you know what he is. The last piece we'd potentially be interested in is Reinbacher, but I understand MTL is very light at RHD.
Forum: Armchair-GMSep. 21, 2023 at 10:37 p.m.
Thread: Comparing Zegras to other RFA Trades w 4 YRs of Control
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>LIRIK</b></div><div>Drouin was stuck playing 3rd line his first two season in Tampa, while Zegras played 1st line. I think value should be close.

And Slafkovsky value is higher than Sergachev was. Not sure MTL should be adding a pick.

I think if a trade was to be made for Zegras, it would have been for MTL 5th overall pick at the 2023 draft.</div></div>

This is true, I admit it’s not a perfect comp, but it’s close enough and I think there’s an argument for it, which is why I included it. Drouin and Zegras were both high picks, and both hyped as players who are fringe stars, but have/had another untapped level to their game.

Any trade would have been done near the draft, I also agree. It’s tough now because most teams are against the cap right now. I forgot to add picks would be conditional based on games, like the Drouin trade. And yes, Slafkovsky has better value than Sergachev at the time. This is more of a best offer and I think of all teams, the Habs control the table in a Zegras deal compared to the other teams.
Forum: Mock-DraftSep. 3, 2023 at 11:04 a.m.
Thread: Offensive Development Model (NHLe)
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>LIRIK</b></div><div>Some Habs fans think Slafkovsky had a bad season, but i think he played decent as an 18 years old. Happy to see NHLe model shows that too.

Love Adam Engstrom growth, i think he could be another top 4 D for MTL in a couple years.

I'm surprised Lane Hutson isn't in the "well above average" category.</div></div>

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Caufield</b></div><div>This is really cool! Love to see Slaf getting good numbers</div></div>

Lane Hutson is a very interesting case. He exploded offensively in the NCAA this year, and in my prior model, he was at the top of the list for "adjusted NHLe" among all players in this draft class. However, one thing to consider is a players' success in a prior season technically counts against them in this model. Hutson produced quite well for the USDP in his draft year, so the bar was set very high. He's definitely proven his value this season, despite him getting overlooked by the model.

Engstrom has definitely exceeded all expectations. He was utterly dominant during his stint in J20, and he looked quite good playing against grown men in the SHL, particularly in the latter half of the season and in the playoffs. He definitely has room to grow, as he sometimes makes questionable decisions with the puck, but his two-way play has been stellar and his value should be quite high.

Slafkovsky's number should be taken with a grain of salt. His draft year NHLe was lower than most others selected near him, so the bar was not very high for him to succeed in this model. Additionally, his transition to the NHL provides a little bit of an inflation to his NHLe. All of that said, he played very well for an 18 year old rookie and quite frankly, his value should have only increased after this season.