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LittleBuddha

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Oct. 7, 2016
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Forum: Armchair-GMAug. 18, 2023 at 4:18 p.m.
Thread: To the limit
Forum: Armchair-GMJun. 12, 2023 at 12:46 a.m.
Forum: Armchair-GMDec. 27, 2022 at 1:22 p.m.
Thread: Better lines
Forum: Armchair-GMOct. 5, 2022 at 4:43 p.m.
Thread: Kerfoot
Forum: Armchair-GMOct. 5, 2022 at 4:32 p.m.
Thread: Kerfoot
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Random2152</b></div><div>Man these kerfoot offers just keep getting more and more insulting.

And then like clockwork when a trade goes down and we get their actual value the site freaks out.

Every damn time</div></div>

the potential of a GM making a bad deal doesn't change the logic:

there are currently 8 teams that have at least 21 skaters and the $3.5M in cap space to acquire Kerfoot(and that's if we're being generous, with the Islanders technically only having $3.485M) - NYI, WPG, OTT, DET, CHI, ANA, ARI, &amp; BUF.

Kerfoot has a 10-team NTC that kicked in at the beginning of free agency this year - I wouldn't be shocked to find out that at least 3 of these 8 are on his NTC (spitballing: Chicago, Arizona, and one of Buffalo/Winnipeg).

But even if you assume he waives his NTC, I'd argue that Chicago, Anaheim, Arizona, Detroit, &amp; Buffalo have no need to spend an asset to get him - he's a 27 year old pending UFA that you'd have to give a raise above $3.5M to keep around if you think he fits your rebuild timeline, or you're moving him with the hope that you flip him out for a better deal at the deadline (always a gamble), which means that you're going to want to pay less than market price to get him (ie, you think he's worth a 2nd/3rd so your best offer is a 4th.) I'd put those 5 as "highly unlikely" to spend any sort of pick on Kerfoot, though.

That leaves the Islanders, Senators, and Jets as teams with the cap available to get him. The Islanders don't have a spot for him at this point - they're filled up with middle-6 wingers as it is, so it would be foolish to spend an asset to get Slightly Better Josh Bailey when that means they're going to be paying someone else $4M+ to sit in the press box every night.

The Senators *might* have a spot for them in their middle-6, but that depends on the Alex Formenton situation - I have to assume they're holding cap space for his deal if he gets cleared to play.

The Jets have an easy spot for him on their 3rd line (apologies to Jensen Harkins) but again - they've got a perfectly fine player for that spot right now, and while an upgrade would be nice, why are they going to pay up? There's no one they have to bid against, so they've got the advantage over Toronto.

This summer has been filled with trades where teams traded assets at well below what their perceived value was because of cap constraints - there's no reason to think that the Leafs trying to move Kerfoot to be cap compliant would be any different.