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LumberJacques

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Forum: Armchair-GM12 minutes ago
Thread: Three way
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>NHLfan10506</b></div><div>Will have to pass through waivers next season (4): <a href="https://www.capfriendly.com/waivers-calculator/jordan-harris">Harris</a>, <a href="https://www.capfriendly.com/waivers-calculator/johnathan-kovacevic">Kovacevic</a>, <a href="https://www.capfriendly.com/waivers-calculator/michael-matheson">Matheson</a>, <a href="https://www.capfriendly.com/waivers-calculator/david-savard">Savard</a>

Will likely lose waiver exemption next year (5): <a href="https://www.capfriendly.com/waivers-calculator/justin-barron">Barron</a>, <a href="https://www.capfriendly.com/waivers-calculator/kaiden-guhle">Guhle</a>, <a href="https://www.capfriendly.com/waivers-calculator/mattias-norlinder">Norlinder</a>, <a href="https://www.capfriendly.com/waivers-calculator/jayden-struble">Struble</a>, <a href="https://www.capfriendly.com/waivers-calculator/arber-xhekaj">Xhekaj</a>

Will keep waiver exemption next year (4): <a href="https://www.capfriendly.com/waivers-calculator/lane-hutson">Hutson</a>, <a href="https://www.capfriendly.com/waivers-calculator/logan-mailloux">Mailloux</a>, <a href="https://www.capfriendly.com/waivers-calculator/david-reinbacher">Reinbacher</a>, <a href="https://www.capfriendly.com/waivers-calculator/william-trudeau">Trudeau</a></div></div>

Players are always waiver exempt through their ELC so Guhle and Struble won't lose it until the 25-26 season at the earliest (not that it matters for Guhle for obvious reasons). Also Norlinder isn't in consideration for an NHL spot next season and is generally unlikely to be extended a contract at all this summer so he's not worth mentioning.

In short it's likely MTL start next season with a similar group on defense as last season with really only Barron's status having changed. So once again, as previously stated, MTL isn't in a much tougher position than last season with regard to waivers.
Forum: Armchair-GMDec. 20, 2023 at 1:31 p.m.
Thread: What is going on
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Fox_Czar_Cup</b></div><div>Sooo predictable. BUF OTT MTL rebuild with offense in mind but no leadership core or vets in place to Show them he way. It's like a day care with kis in charge lol.
Yet all of their fans will bark at you, saying we will explode lol.
Everybody was laughing at NYR for locking up their core during rebuild instead of stapling our Busts on line 1 or pp1. Like them, Kakko would have started with 40 points and have been locked up 7x 6m lol...</div></div>

Whoa, Whoa, Whoa. What's with MTL catching strays here?

I can't agree about putting MTL in that group. Suzuki, Newhook and Caufield may be young but they've been on a cup final run already. For veteran presence they have Gallagher, Allen, Savard, Pearson and Anderson who have also been on cup runs before on top of Monahan and Matheson who have been great leaders on the team. While the team is young there is still a significant amount of experience in that locker room.
Forum: Armchair-GMNov. 30, 2023 at 12:54 a.m.
Thread: there are some EXTREMELY delusional fanbases on this site
I mean nobody is saying you <strong>SHOULD</strong> pay multiple 1st picks to trade Campbell.

But at the same time teams aren't going to be lining up to have dead cap on their books for the next 3-6 years either. More than 2/3 the teams in the NHL currently have aspirations for at least the playoffs over the next 2 years and want to maximize every cap dollar. On top of that most owners won't be ok with paying $9m for a player to not play for their team or worst $15m to play in the AHL. That leaves you with an incredibly small market of teams that would even have the capacity to take Campbell on without getting to those that would actually be open to it.

I can't speak for any other market but MTL specifically has been very openly reluctant to take on longer term dead cap under Hughes. He has been very vocal about cap flexibility being a top priority and not wanting to resort to buyouts if at all possible. He easily could have bought out Hoffman and Armia this past summer and instead opted against it despite the mild terms on those buyouts. I can't imagine a 6 year buyout being of any interest to him unless an offer he can't refuse materialized, which a 1st and 3rd most certainly isn't.

Outside the Habs I can only think of SJ, Philly and maybe MN or CHI potentially being open to a Campbell dump. The other teams either have a mandate to win or cheap ownership. Most likely outcome IMO is EDM being forced to buyout because I can't see a 1st + 3rd being enough to entice them to deal with this problem.
Forum: Armchair-GMNov. 29, 2023 at 8:42 p.m.
Forum: Armchair-GMNov. 28, 2023 at 10:36 p.m.
Thread: Buy low Sell high
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>CantCrackTheKraken</b></div><div>Could trade Yam anywhere for a 3rd or 2nd</div></div>

How do you figure that?

He couldn't score enough with McDavid and Draisaitl to avoid being cap dumped this summer and then Detroit felt like buying him out was preferable to whatever was being offered to acquire him by other teams (they likely could have even retained half his cap in a trade given their space). This season his scoring still isn't anything special and he is averaging around 12 minutes per game (4th line minutes) so clearly is far from the most trusted or valued player by his coaches. Contending teams usually target bigger and more rugged "playoff style" players at the deadline and rebuilding teams likely don't want to spend assets on a player with such a slim chance of ever being more than the player he currently is.

At his size (probably the lightest player in the NHL and among the shortest) he has to be a special offensive talent to be worth anything and to this point he just hasn't proven that. Honestly I don't know if anyone would claim him if he went on waivers again.
Forum: Armchair-GMNov. 28, 2023 at 5:20 p.m.
Thread: Perry
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>BeterChiarelli</b></div><div>But that's kind of the same point I'm agreeing to in my two above posts: Blackwood isn't one of the star goaltenders in the NHL today, he's just performing really well on a gutted Sharks roster.

This entire conversation is surrounding the idea of my rebuttal of Bourgault, Broberg, the 2025 1st, and Campbell for Blackwood. I'm aligned with Allan's discussion, having reached this conclusion not from the opinion that Seravalli dropped, but extrapolating to the Oilers being in a really bad bargaining position at the moment. To expect Edmonton to get absolutely nothing back in that return is insane to me, no matter how much of a black hole Campbell is in terms of value. That's too much capital to be moving out to free up less than $4M in cap space over the next three years.</div></div>

My bad, I hadn't gotten to that point in the thread yet.

However I don't completely agree with your point of Bourgault and Broberg holding more inherent value than a 1st round pick. Bourgault himself was a late 1st pick and hasn't exactly lit the world on fire since turning pro and I think his value IMO is pretty much in line with his draft slot and I would rate him more of a B than B+ prospect until he shows more offence. As for Broberg, he is in his 3rd pro season in NA and still hasn't been able to take hold of a regular role in the NHL despite management being very high on him. The fact that the coaching staff don't play a 3rd year pro for even 11 minutes per game speaks to the lack of trust and belief in this player which is concerning given that he was drafted as a future Ekholm style 2 way, dependable stalwart and not a high event, risky player which coaches are often wary of.

Though prospect evaluation is far from an exact science and Grier might be more aligned with your view and find the value proposed to be sufficient. I personally don't see much surplus value to either player compared to a late 1st round pick and so agree with Emil that more would need to be added get Blackwood.
Forum: Armchair-GMNov. 28, 2023 at 4:41 p.m.
Thread: Perry
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>BeterChiarelli</b></div><div>If the rumoured ask to dump Campbell is a first and a third, how is the sum total of said first and two of Edmonton's best prospects not getting this done? Ultimately, are your feelings about taking back the contract aligned with the reality of the situation?

I personally don't have an interest in acquiring Ferraro, and the inclusion of Janmark is a nothingburger, but the package of Bourgault, Broberg, Campbell, and the requisite first absolutely fetches Blackwood (at least on paper). I recognize that the Sharks only have LHD and might not hold Broberg in high regard, but I think your stance on this specific trade is, well, skewed.</div></div>

I don't know what rumours you are referring to but a 1st and 3rd to dump Campbell seems woefully short on value to dump $5m in cap for 3 1/2 years.

To me the cost of moving Campbell should be close to a 1st per year of term. This mirrors Lowetide at The Athletic's take "the asset cost of simply moving Campbell starts at three good prospects/picks".

reference: https://theathletic.com/5074967/2023/11/20/edmonton-oilers-goalie-trades/