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Slimycoldcutswork
SLIMY
Member Since
Apr. 12, 2019
Favourite Team
New Jersey Devils
Forum Posts
273
Posts per Day
0.1
POSTS
THREADS
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ARMCHAIR-GM TEAMS
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Tue. at 5:42 p.m.
Thread:
Devils
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>MoxNix</b></div><div>Marstrom isn't a rental, he has 2 years of term left.</div></div>
my bad. I thought his deal expired after 24-25 for some reason. Maybe I was conflating the Saros situation. Nonetheless, I dont think it changes the sentiment too much about an aversion to trade a top 10 pick either way. From the data analysis done on things like 'true pick value' we know that 10th is roughly equal to 2 picks in the 20s; however, the closer you get to top 10/ top 5/ top 3, teams tend not to look at it from that perspective and opt to keep the high pick if they can.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Tue. at 4:10 p.m.
Thread:
Devils
Devils would potentially lose out on a lot of value if they did it this way, and there is more than one way to skin a cat. Markstrom as a rental is probably worth a 1st to whomever needs him, either now or at the deadline. A top 10 pick is worth significantly more than Markstrom as a rental and a top 10 pick is worth significantly more than where VANs pick will end up in the 20s. Together I think the value is somewhat close, but you probably keep you top 10 pick and see if there is another way to get it done if youre the devils. E.g. the devils 2025 1st round pick and either a player or prospect for markstrom by himself.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Tue. at 3:56 p.m.
Thread:
Make best offers
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>csick</b></div><div>I can’t see the Sens moving pinto unless we wanna rebuild again completely which makes no sense</div></div>
I figured as much. He's a good middle C man. I'm impressed every time I see him play .
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Tue. at 10:50 a.m.
Thread:
Cost of these players from fellow fans
I dont think the devils are looking to move bahl individually. I think they would def include him in a package in order to make an upgrade via a sens roster player though. My target would be pinto, and then devils adding substantially in addition to Bahl. Like a 2025 1st rounder and a young forward either on the roster or one of their better forward prospects.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Tue. at 10:46 a.m.
Thread:
Make best offers
whats biggest short term and long term need for sens? I would give up a pretty solid package for Pinto. Like Holtz, 2025 1st, and then either a roster D or prospect D. If prospect, casey. If roster, Bahl, Marino, or Seigenthaler. Dougie/Luke Hughes/Nemec would be out of the question, but I think its still a nice package. Devils would have to overpay in order to make the sens trade pinto when they dont have to do so.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Tue. at 10:39 a.m.
Thread:
Flames
The devils trade is pretty fair value depending on how you view Marino. Its ostensibly a rental though, so I think the assumption would have to be an extension, or the devils perhaps send something like a 2025 1st and foote for markstrom and retained salary.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Jan. 25, 2023 at 4:32 p.m.
Thread:
Timo Meier Cost
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>AStovetop</b></div><div>Can you link the data you're referencing? The majority or players do not break into the league until 22-23. I haven't seen anything that shows the 23-34 is the most productive age.
There are also 83 forwards that are 31 or older. So you're essentially cutting the actual number in half.
By your logic, why would anyone sign a player past 31 ever? They're apparently an old bag of bones at that point. And I didn't say he'll be playing his best hockey at that point, I'm saying he'll still be a key contributor.</div></div>
my bad on number of forwards, I used the wrong slider on the active players page.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Jan. 25, 2023 at 11:39 a.m.
Thread:
Timo Meier Cost
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>AStovetop</b></div><div>he'll be a key contributor still. 31 is not old, and an 8 year deal expires when he's 34, typically when players start regressing so the timing of an 8 year deal is perfect for the Sharks and their timeline</div></div>
All of this is either untrue or unlikely.
The data suggest forwards are at their peak around the age of 23 or 24 and begin to regress in their mid twenties.
553 forwards have played nhl games this year.
47 of them are 31 or older
16 of them play 15 minutes or more per game
11 of them are producing at 0.5 points per game or higher
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Jan. 25, 2023 at 10:57 a.m.
Thread:
Meier trade before all star break and rest of TDL
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Tintin</b></div><div>Playing Mikkola would probably be a big mistake.
He's been quite terrible this season and would be a significant downgrade from Smith, Bahl or Okhotiuk.</div></div>
I think the goal would be to not play him over Smith. If you make a deep cup run, you probably need extra defensemen. If he needs to play a few games, his job will be to come over the boards and hold it together in his own end. If lindy has the confidence in him to play that role with some degree of competence his real contribution is as a body that gives lindy the flexibility to keep the top 4 a bit more fresh and have some deployment flexibility. I dont really care if hes a net negative offensively.
Hes been fine defensively at even strength. Almost all of the blues have been bad short handed. Doubt he would be deployed on special teams very much anyway. The RAPM and xGAR suggest he would be an upgrade over Bahl in that context. The analytics agree with you when it comes to Okhotiuk though. What the rates arent really showing is that lindy doesnt seem to trust either of them. That seems to be changing a bit with Okhotiuk, but hes still very inexperienced. There seems to be a very short leash with Bahl. As soon as he looks a little shaky, or a close game wanes late into the 3rd lindy turns Bahl into a grocery stick, and starts double shifting guys like smith graves and seigs in defensive starts. I was at the game last night and I legit watched him sit in the exact same spot on the bench for what seemed like most of the 3rd period. Could give some context to why his rates are somewhat promising.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Dec. 14, 2022 at 3:19 p.m.
Thread:
Timo Meier Cost
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>AStovetop</b></div><div>Sharks don't NEED to trade Timo so the return will be more than what NJ fans will say is fair. Adding a Good D-prospect like Mukhamadullin or Casey would likely be what would push GMMG to say yes.</div></div>
need? no, he hasnt demanded a trade and they could make the money work. That doesnt mean it wouldnt behoove Grier and the sharks. If they are serious about a rebuild, they SHOULD trade a 26 year old FWD while his value is at his highest. In 5 years he will be 31 with a year or two left on the deal, the sharks might be good again, and somebody much younger will be needing that 8+ million in cap space.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Aug. 16, 2022 at 2:33 p.m.
Thread:
Planning next season
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Rob32sjsharks</b></div><div>I could do Thompson Bahl Walsh the 23 1st and 24 2nd.
could also do Mercer 23 1st for Meier and a 4th.
but Holtz and Eklund have chemestry and having played together in the past and that’s why i want him.</div></div>
'Thompson Bahl Walsh the 23 1st and 24 2nd' This one might be fair value when you add it all up, but probably not the kind of deal I want if I am the sharks. The 1st round pick would clearly be the centerpiece of that deal. If Walsh continues to improve I think there is potential for him to be a pretty good player, but thats still a gamble. The other two look like they could be roster players, but I think the upside is slim.
'could also do Mercer 23 1st for Meier and a 4th.' I would much rather do this if I am the sharks, but I dont think the devils would be willing to do it due to the cost control that mercer will have.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Jun. 19, 2022 at 12:25 a.m.
Thread:
saverson
I think that is an overpay for a severson rental.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Jun. 19, 2022 at 12:21 a.m.
Thread:
Leafs again
I really like Muzzin, would have 100% done this 2-3 years ago but the devils now have 5 LHD that will be fighting for 3 spots and hughes on the way next year. there just isnt room without trading away smith and/or graves.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Jun. 19, 2022 at 12:14 a.m.
Thread:
For the future
please stop
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Jun. 19, 2022 at 12:12 a.m.
Thread:
Somebody will overpay him
He's been very impressive, but I think its still a massive gamble at that kind of AAV. Really the kind of contract that could jeopardize this team as some of the young talent come off of their ELCs. For that kind of money you have to be absolutely sure that for at least 3/5ths or 4/5ths of the term that guy is going to be an impact player and getting about 60 points or more per year. If hes just a 15 goal guy with an amazing defensive acumen, I dont even want to pay him 5 million a year.
Forum:
Fauteuil - DG
Jun. 19, 2022 at 12:02 a.m.
Thread:
Would be incridble
lot of habs fans on here have really embarrassed themselves over the last few weeks.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Jun. 18, 2022 at 11:58 p.m.
Thread:
Trade idea
I dont know how much interest they would have in kuokkanen considering he would be a fringe player for them. Maybe if he was still on ELC and wasnt waiver eligible, but not really any point if he is making 1.9 mil.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Jun. 18, 2022 at 11:49 p.m.
Thread:
Logan Cooley
not even close on the devils deal
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Jun. 2, 2022 at 10:47 a.m.
Thread:
playoff hopeful while trying to maintain future cap flexibility
I really dont know what the return for zacha will be but I think it will likely be a hockey trade involving a roster player or prospect/fringe nhler.
For the others I really dont think we will be getting any early round picks. Unless there are injuries before the start of the year, we may be in a situation where one or more will have to clear waivers. I think they are all good enough to be claimed, so maybe we get a late round pick in the event that a specific team really wants one guy in particular and is worried they may be too far down the waiver order to get him.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
May 25, 2022 at 1:05 p.m.
Thread:
Blues
devils deal is relatively fair value if the expectation is that neither will extend and become UFAs. I just dont really see the Devils moving Graves earlier than the deadline. If they're moving him, it probably means they are out of the playoffs. In suit, they're likely not looking for a rental wing in return.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
May 25, 2022 at 12:42 p.m.
Thread:
JT Trades - Yell at me in the comments section
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>qwertymann</b></div><div>I would say it'd need to be 2nd OA plus... but I'm open to my values being up and down thus the making of this thread. Which are overpays and which are underpays?</div></div>
theyre legitimately all overpays
Forum:
Fauteuil - DG
May 20, 2022 at 3:25 p.m.
Thread:
Wright Slafkovsky
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>habslife</b></div><div>Un attaquant de puissance + un jeune défenseur avec un beau potentiel top 4 + choix de première ronde 2022= OUI!</div></div>
I dont even need to speak French to know this is delusional
Forum:
Armchair-GM
May 9, 2022 at 5:03 p.m.
Thread:
Fiala is great but not worth 1st-6th overall read description
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Devil</b></div><div>Another option is to offersheet him this summer but trading for him is the more realistic option</div></div>
I dont think thats really an option even if he wanted to sign one. A) I think he will be dealt by the draft, and B) the compensation would likely be an unprotected 1st 2nd and 3rd in 2023 if youre to accept the idea that he will be in the 6-8 million AAV bracket.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
May 9, 2022 at 4:59 p.m.
Thread:
Fiala is great but not worth 1st-6th overall read description
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Wildnochance</b></div><div>You will still have to give up a 1st round pick in addition to any prospect. Minnesota will not take on tatar, Zacha, Andreas Johnson, miles wood, . They don't need janne.
People can debate where the 1st round pick starts. Don't really care.</div></div>
so youre saying hypothetically the devils could offer you all 4 of the 1st round picks still on ELCs on that prospect list and you would still say no? That seems a bit absurd to me.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Sep. 10, 2021 at 4:28 p.m.
Thread:
Finite
Unless Wood is looking for more money than he is worth (like over 5 million) I dont think the devils see a need or reason to move him, especially for picks.
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